Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

J1 League29 August 2026Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kyoto26°1,1 mm5 km/h

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Kyoto SangaPossession control

Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Kyoto Sanga (41%)

1 · Kyoto Sanga 41%X 29%30% Avispa Fukuoka · 2

41%

29%

30%

Analysis: Kyoto Sanga – Avispa Fukuoka

Oscar Nilsson · 24 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Kyoto Sanga and Avispa Fukuoka have been close rivals in their recent matchups, with each team finding ways to edge the other out in the six games since 2023. The hosts have won twice while Fukuoka has claimed victory in three encounters, leaving one match drawn. Despite this, it's the visitors who hold the slight upper hand in terms of points and expected points, 3 to 1 and 5.1 to 2.9 respectively. However, the current model leans towards the home side with a 41% probability of victory, suggesting that Kyoto's possession-oriented style may exploit Fukuoka's physicality.

Current form shows Sanga struggling to convert expected goals into actual points; they average 0.98 xG per match but allow 1.4 xGA, suggesting a vulnerability defensively. In contrast, Fukuoka manages a more balanced 1.1 xG and 0.86 xGA, which has translated to slightly better outcomes on the pitch. The expected goals for the match — 1.34 for Kyoto against 1.07 for Fukuoka — imply a tight contest, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-0.

The weather's forecast of 12.9 mm of rain could dampen scoring opportunities, which aligns with the model's 43% probability for over 2.5 goals. Yet, historical goal averages of 3.0 per meeting between these two suggest otherwise. This tension makes the over 2.5 goals market particularly interesting, especially given the 5% value identified at odds of 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet.

Given the statistical landscape and potential weather impact, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome. But for those inclined to take on a bit more risk, backing the over 2.5 goals at the value odds could be worth a look.

Kyoto Sanga

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #4xP/match #16Points #18

Key players

Rafael Elias da Silva BatagliaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.00
Shinnosuke FukudaRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.40
Yoshinori SuzukiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Avispa Fukuoka

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
Kokoro MaedaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Kyoto Sanga – Avispa Fukuoka

Predicted score matrix

Avispa Fukuoka →

Kyoto Sanga →

0–09.4%

0–19.2%

0–25.1%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.7%

1–113.3%

1–26.9%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.1%

2–18.6%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.6%

3–13.9%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,07

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.49

Over 2,543%

@2.42EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kyoto Sanga or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kyoto Sanga or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Rafael Elias da Silva Bataglia to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Rafael Elias da Silva Bataglia to score29%
João Pedro Mendes Santos to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Kyoto Sanga41% probability@2.60PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Over 2.543% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Over 2.543% probability@2.42BetssonEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kyoto Sanga	X	2 · Avispa Fukuoka
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 2.52	2.92	2.90
Betsson	EV+ 4% 2.52	2.92	2.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 2.52	2.92	2.90
Pinnacle	EV+ 7% 2.60	3.06	2.93

Odds updated 27 Aug, 10:40

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.61 → 2.60

X0 %

34 %29 %

3.05 → 3.06

20 %

35 %30 %

2.92 → 2.93

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Kyoto Sanga 2Draw 1Avispa Fukuoka 3

Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kyoto Sanga

Avispa Fukuoka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kyoto Sanga (4–7)

Avispa Fukuoka (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kyoto Sanga

Avispa Fukuoka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kyoto Sanga

Avispa Fukuoka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kyoto Sanga	Avispa Fukuoka
Points	1	3
xPoints	2.9	5.1
xG per match	0.98	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	0.86
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.11

Playing style	Kyoto Sanga	Avispa Fukuoka
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.6	0.43
xT per match	1.3	0.75
xTA per match	1.2	0.66
Won balls, offensive half	20	31
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.66
Passes per match	395	255
Passes against per match	326	413
Switches of play per match	30.5	16.4
Long balls per match	29	29

Set pieces	Kyoto Sanga	Avispa Fukuoka
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	2	5
Corners against per match	6.7	1.7
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.6

Other	Kyoto Sanga	Avispa Fukuoka
Throw-in control	0.72	0.8

The goalkeepers	Gakuji Ota (Kyoto Sanga)	Takumi Nagaishi (Avispa Fukuoka)
Saves	10	6
Save %	59%	67%
xG prevented	29%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka according to our model?

The model gives Kyoto Sanga a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kyoto Sanga 41%, draw 29%, Avispa Fukuoka 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.