Atlas vs Tigres UANL: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Liga MX16 August 2026Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara22°3,5 mm7 km/h

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AtlasPossession control

Tigres UANLPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Tigres UANL (45%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.11 (+5 %)

1 · Atlas 27%X 28%45% Tigres UANL · 2

27%

28%

45%

Analysis: Atlas – Tigres UANL

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

In a Liga MX clash shadowed by recent form and small sample head-to-head encounters, Tigres UANL stands as a favourite against Atlas Guadalajara. With a 45% chance of victory, Tigres UANL could be poised to capitalise on their recent history, although the head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to just four matches. In those, the Tigers have shown resilience, avoiding defeat twice and snatching two draws.

Tigres UANL's expected goals tally of 1.59 outshines Atlas's 1.07, underscoring a sharper edge in the final third. However, Atlas Guadalajara, with a modest six points gleaned from their campaign, holds a slight superiority in actual league points compared to Tigres' single point. This juxtaposition creates an intriguing tension, suggesting that Atlas might be punching above their weight in accumulating points relative to their xG.

Atlas Guadalajara's preference for possession control mirrors Tigres UANL's own strategy, setting the stage for an intriguing midfield battle. Tigres’ advantage in expected goals (xG) per match could become decisive, especially with the rain forecasted to potentially dampen attacking flair. At 22.0°C, the 3.5 mm of rain might curb both teams' attacking prowess, already reflected in the expected goals metric.

The smart money might lean towards a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline, with the model highlighting a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 12% probability. However, bettors eyeing the value market should note the over 2.5 goals option. With Pinnacle offering it at 2.11 and a model-rated 50% chance, the potential for a goal fest, albeit affected by the weather, presents a tantalising 5% edge.

As the match approaches, the astute bettor might find themselves gravitating towards this over 2.5 goals line, sensing value beyond the bookies' odds, even in a contest where goals could be at a premium.

Atlas

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #17xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Gustavo FerrareisRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.07 · xT 0.25

Tigres UANL

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #8xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre SotoLWxG 0.29 · xT -0.02
Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.58 · xT 0.27
Diego LainezRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Atlas – Tigres UANL

Predicted score matrix

Tigres UANL →

Atlas →

0–07.3%

0–110.8%

0–28.9%

0–34.7%

0–4+2.7%

1–07.2%

1–112.2%

1–29.5%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.0%

2–16.4%

2–25.1%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.5%

3–01.4%

3–12.3%

3–21.8%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,07–1,59

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.73

Over 2,550%

@2.11EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tigres UANL to win45%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tigres UANL to win45%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score23%
Víctor Hugo Ríos de Alba to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.550% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+5%
Over 2.550% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+3%
Over 2.550% probability@2.08BetssonEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Atlas	X	2 · Tigres UANL
Betsafe	3.25	3.20	2.18
Betsson	3.25	3.20	2.18
Nordicbet	3.25	3.20	2.18
Pinnacle	3.41	3.25	2.21

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.41

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.24 → 3.25

20 %

45 %40 %

2.22 → 2.21

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.11 → 2.11

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atlas 0Draw 2Tigres UANL 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlas

Tigres UANL

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlas (4–4)

Tigres UANL (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlas

Tigres UANL

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlas

Tigres UANL

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlas	Tigres UANL
Points	6	1
xPoints	3.9	3.1
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.66	0.17

Playing style	Atlas	Tigres UANL
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.59
xT per match	0.61	1
xTA per match	1	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	19	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.25
Entries into the box per match	7	15
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.74	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	318	339
Passes against per match	355	317
Switches of play per match	32.1	28.8
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Atlas	Tigres UANL
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	7.8
Corners against per match	3.9	3.3
xG per corner	0.07	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.6

Other	Atlas	Tigres UANL
Throw-in control	0.7	0.53

The goalkeepers	Antonio Sanchez (Atlas)	Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL)
Saves	6	9
Save %	75%	53%
xG prevented	30%	20%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlas vs Tigres UANL according to our model?

The model gives Tigres UANL a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 27%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.