01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Juárez or draw (1X)63%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez35°22 km/h
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FC Juárez1–5
Pumas UNAMThe model's lean: 1 · FC Juárez (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.56 (+6 %)
FC Juárez vs Pumas UNAM · Liga MX
1 · FC Juárez 38%X 30%32% Pumas UNAM · 2
38%
30%
32%
Final score
1 – 5
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC Juárez 38% · Draw 30% · Pumas UNAM 32%
Match prediction: FC Juárez – Pumas UNAM
Predicted score matrix
Pumas UNAM →
FC Juárez →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–18.0%
0–26.0%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.1%
1–28.4%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.3%
2–25.9%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.9%
3–22.8%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,42
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.18EV+1%
Over 2,554%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Juárez or draw (1X)63%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.56PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · FC Juárez38% probability@2.69PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Juárez | X | 2 · Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 2.69 | EV+ 6% 3.56 | 2.60 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 04:09
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Pumas UNAM win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 2.94 to 2.60 (−12%).
1+7 %
39 %34 %
2.52 → 2.69
X+11 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.56
2-12 %
37 %32 %
2.94 → 2.60
Over 2,5-7 %
56 %51 %
1.86 → 1.73
Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Juárez vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?
The model gives FC Juárez a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 38%, draw 30%, Pumas UNAM 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.