01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Pachuca or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MXEstadio León, León21°14,1 mm16 km/h
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León1–0
PachucaThe model's lean: 2 · Pachuca (43%)
León vs Pachuca · Liga MX
1 · León 31%X 26%43% Pachuca · 2
31%
26%
43%
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: León 31% · Draw 26% · Pachuca 43%
Match prediction: León – Pachuca
Predicted score matrix
Pachuca →
León →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–19.1%
0–27.3%
0–33.8%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–07.3%
1–112.1%
1–29.1%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.4%
2–25.7%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.1%
3–22.4%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,25–1,55
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.00
Over 2,553%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Pachuca or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Pachuca43% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · León | X | 2 · Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.41 | EV+ 2% 2.39 |
Odds updated 2 Aug, 02:09
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 2.11 to 2.00 (−5%).
10 %
37 %27 %
3.06 → 3.07
X-1 %
34 %24 %
3.45 → 3.41
2+3 %
45 %35 %
2.31 → 2.39
Over 2,5+8 %
57 %47 %
1.75 → 1.88
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins León vs Pachuca according to our model?
The model gives Pachuca a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: León 31%, draw 26%, Pachuca 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.