Querétaro vs Tigres UANL: Prediction & Odds (1 Aug 2026)

Liga MX1 August 2026Estadio Corregidora, Querétaro19°8,0 mm11 km/h

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Querétaro

3–2

Tigres UANL

The model's lean: 2 · Tigres UANL (44%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.72 (+8 %)

1 · Querétaro 27%X 29%44% Tigres UANL · 2

27%

29%

44%

Final score

3 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Querétaro 27% · Draw 29% · Tigres UANL 44%

Match prediction: Querétaro – Tigres UANL

Predicted score matrix

Tigres UANL →

Querétaro →

0–07.9%

0–110.8%

0–28.1%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.0%

1–08.1%

1–112.7%

1–29.1%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–04.7%

2–16.9%

2–25.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.8%

3–12.6%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,11–1,46

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.00EV+5%

Over 2,548%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tigres UANL or draw (X2)72%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tigres UANL or draw (X2)72%
Under 2.5 goals52%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.72PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@2.00PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Querétaro	X	2 · Tigres UANL
Pinnacle	3.59	EV+ 8% 3.72	2.03

Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:08

Odds movement

1-7 %

28 %23 %

3.84 → 3.59

X-2 %

28 %23 %

3.78 → 3.72

2+7 %

51 %46 %

1.89 → 2.03

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %49 %

1.83 → 1.88

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Teams & more matches this round

Querétaro

Fixtures, form & tips

Tigres UANL

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Querétaro vs Tigres UANL according to our model?

The model gives Tigres UANL a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Querétaro 27%, draw 29%, Tigres UANL 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.