01 · 2 legs
Safe
- CD Guadalajara to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla18°4,5 mm15 km/h
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Puebla1–1
CD GuadalajaraThe model's lean: 2 · CD Guadalajara (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.63 (+10 %)
Puebla vs CD Guadalajara · Liga MX
1 · Puebla 19%X 24%57% CD Guadalajara · 2
19%
24%
57%
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Puebla 19% · Draw 24% · CD Guadalajara 57%
Match prediction: Puebla – CD Guadalajara
Predicted score matrix
CD Guadalajara →
Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–19.7%
0–29.0%
0–35.5%
0–4+3.7%
1
1–05.7%
1–111.1%
1–29.8%
1–35.9%
1–4+4.1%
2
2–03.3%
2–15.9%
2–25.4%
2–33.2%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–01.2%
3–12.1%
3–21.9%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.1-36%
Expected goals
1,09–1,81
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
–
Over 2,555%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- CD Guadalajara to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.63PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Puebla19% probability@5.78PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Puebla | X | 2 · CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 5.78 | EV+ 10% 4.63 | 1.54 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 02:08
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an CD Guadalajara win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 1.69 to 1.54 (−9%).
1+28 %
24 %14 %
4.53 → 5.78
X+13 %
27 %17 %
4.10 → 4.63
2-9 %
64 %54 %
1.69 → 1.54
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Puebla vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?
The model gives CD Guadalajara a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Puebla 19%, draw 24%, CD Guadalajara 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.