Liga MX: Predictions, Odds & Tips

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    Model-based predictions for Liga MX — América, Chivas, Monterrey, Tigres and the whole Apertura, analysed by the same match model behind PlaymakerAI: 1X2 probabilities, a score matrix, expected goals and over/under lines ahead of every round.

    The predictions are held against live odds, with positive expected value (EV+) flagged when the model’s probability beats the implied odds. Played matches are graded openly — hit or miss — and everything updates continuously until kickoff.

    Upcoming matches

    AtlasAtlas
    vs
    Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM
    1 30%X 32%2 38%
    Odds on the move
    FC JuárezFC Juárez
    vs
    Tigres UANLTigres UANL
    1 17%X 22%2 61%
    Atlético San LuisAtlético San Luis
    vs
    NecaxaNecaxa
    1 44%X 27%2 29%
    PueblaPuebla
    vs
    AtlanteAtlante
    1 40%X 27%2 33%
    MonterreyMonterrey
    vs
    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    1 34%X 27%2 39%
    Club AméricaClub América
    vs
    CD GuadalajaraCD Guadalajara
    1 47%X 29%2 24%
    PachucaPachuca
    vs
    TijuanaTijuana
    1 44%X 28%2 28%
    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo Toluca
    vs
    Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
    1 76%X 15%2 9%
    QuerétaroQuerétaro
    vs
    LeónLeón
    1 40%X 32%2 28%

    League table2026/27

    PosTeamPSW–D–LGF–GAxPxGxGAxGDFTStyle
    1Deportivo Toluca1986–1–118–613,414,97,0+7,963 %Possession control
    2CD Guadalajara1785–2–115–610,811,18,1+3,067 %Possession & high press
    3Club América1675–1–115–611,312,27,5+4,760 %Possession & high press
    4Cruz Azul1585–0–316–1412,014,410,7+3,763 %Possession & high press
    5Querétaro1374–1–210–710,39,711,5−1,846 %Low block & direct
    6León1384–1–311–911,710,610,2+0,447 %Possession control
    7Tijuana1374–1–210–813,412,36,6+5,738 %Balanced & physical
    8Puebla1384–1–310–1012,58,49,6−1,244 %Low block & direct
    9Atlas1384–1–312–148,39,213,7−4,544 %Possession control
    10Pachuca1183–2–313–810,610,711,8−1,146 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    11Pumas UNAM1183–2–311–1210,08,19,8−1,739 %Possession control
    12Monterrey1073–1–313–1012,112,58,0+4,565 %Possession control
    13Necaxa882–2–49–1311,712,410,7+1,741 %Possession control
    14Tigres UANL781–4–39–119,110,911,4−0,558 %Possession & high press
    15Atlante781–4–37–1211,09,312,9−3,642 %Low block & direct
    16Atlético San Luis681–3–48–159,38,110,9−2,847 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    17Santos Laguna481–1–66–139,010,612,0−1,447 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    18FC Juárez080–0–84–235,35,318,3−13,035 %Possession control

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    Played matches

    Prediction track record
    Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
    2–1
    FC JuárezFC Juárez
    1 45%X 30%2 25%
    The model called the outcome
    CD GuadalajaraCD Guadalajara
    3–0
    Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM
    1 60%X 23%2 18%
    The model called the outcome
    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    4–3
    Club AméricaClub América
    1 42%X 28%2 30%
    The model called the outcome
    MonterreyMonterrey
    0–0
    Tigres UANLTigres UANL
    1 44%X 28%2 28%
    The model missed the outcome
    TijuanaTijuana
    0–1
    QuerétaroQuerétaro
    1 51%X 27%2 22%
    The model missed the outcome
    AtlanteAtlante
    0–3
    PachucaPachuca
    1 30%X 30%2 40%
    The model called the outcome
    NecaxaNecaxa
    0–1
    PueblaPuebla
    1 56%X 24%2 20%
    The model missed the outcome
    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo Toluca
    5–2
    AtlasAtlas
    1 74%X 16%2 10%
    The model called the outcome
    LeónLeón
    2–0
    Atlético San LuisAtlético San Luis
    1 48%X 26%2 26%
    The model called the outcome
    Pumas UNAMPumas UNAM
    3–1
    LeónLeón
    1 51%X 27%2 22%
    The model called the outcome
    Tigres UANLTigres UANL
    1–1
    NecaxaNecaxa
    1 62%X 20%2 18%
    The model missed the outcome
    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    1–0
    Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
    1 76%X 15%2 9%
    The model called the outcome

    How the predictions work

    Every prediction comes from PlaymakerAI's match model — the same data platform professional clubs use for scouting and match analysis. The model is trained on event data from hundreds of thousands of matches and weighs over 200 factors per team: strength ratings, current form, playing style, squad player profiles, fixture congestion, travel and even matchday weather.

    For each fixture the model produces a full goal distribution. From it we derive the 1X2 probabilities, the score matrix, expected goals, over/under lines and both-teams-to-score. Predictions are frozen before kickoff and never changed afterwards — once a match finishes we grade it openly, hit or miss.

    Odds are collected continuously from several bookmakers. When the model's probability for an outcome exceeds what the odds imply, we flag it as value (EV+). That is the model's assessment, not a guarantee: even positive-EV bets lose often. Gamble responsibly.

    Liga MX FAQ

    Where do I find Liga MX predictions?

    Right here: every match in Liga MX has its own analysis with 1X2 probabilities, most likely scoreline, over/under and value against current odds. Pick a match from the upcoming list — predictions are refreshed before every round and graded openly afterwards.

    How are the Liga MX predictions made?

    Each match is replayed thousands of times in the model using hundreds of metrics per team — expected goals, pressing, expected threat, field tilt, form and squad. The output is a probability for every scoreline, which is then compared with bookmaker odds to find value.

    What is the xP table?

    xP means expected points: how many points each team should have taken given the quality of chances created and conceded. The gap between xP and the real table shows which Liga MX teams are over- and underrated right now.

    Which teams play in Liga MX 2026/27?

    Liga MX 2026/27 has 18 teams: Deportivo Toluca, CD Guadalajara, Club América, Cruz Azul, Querétaro, León, Tijuana, Puebla, Atlas, Pachuca, Pumas UNAM, Monterrey, Necaxa, Tigres UANL, Atlante, Atlético San Luis, Santos Laguna, FC Juárez.

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.