01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Deportivo Toluca to win76%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Liga MXEstadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca15°2,6 mm7 km/h
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Deportivo TolucaPossession controlvs
Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Toluca (76%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.95 (+5 %)
Deportivo Toluca vs Santos Laguna · Liga MX
1 · Deportivo Toluca 76%X 15%9% Santos Laguna · 2
76%
15%
Analysis: Deportivo Toluca – Santos Laguna
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With a dominant 76% win probability, Deportivo Toluca stands out as the clear favorite against Santos Laguna. The model's forecasts are supported by Toluca's four-game winning streak and their impressive home record, winning 70% of matches on familiar turf. The hosts have been in fine form, boasting 19 points compared to Laguna's meager 4, further underscored by a solid xPoints advantage of 13.4 to 9.0.
Toluca's expected goals of 2.73 indicate they are likely to find the back of the net with regularity, while Laguna's 0.77 suggests struggles in attack. The probable scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 reflect a likely Toluca clean sheet, aligning with their defensive prowess shown by an xGA of just 0.88. Despite the rain, dampening attacking play, 68% over 2.5 goals odds suggest potential for a multi-goal affair. While head-to-head data since 2023 is limited, Toluca's 3-1 edge adds to their credentials.
For the discerning bettor, the true intrigue lies in the away win value proposition. With odds at 11.5 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 6% edge on the 9% model rating, offering a rare opportunity for those eyeing a high-risk, high-reward play on Santos Laguna, despite the overwhelming numbers favoring the hosts.
Deportivo TolucaForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #10xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Federico Sebastián Viñas BarbozaFxG 0.72 · xT -0.01
- Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.14
- Santiago SimónRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Santos LagunaForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #4xP/match #16Points #17
Key players
- Ezequiel Eduardo BullaudeFxG 0.27 · xT 0.06
- Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
- Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Deportivo Toluca – Santos Laguna
Predicted score matrix
Santos Laguna →
Deportivo Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–12.1%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.1%
1–16.5%
1–22.4%
1–30.6%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–011.3%
2–18.6%
2–23.3%
2–30.8%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–010.3%
3–17.9%
3–23.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–013.6%
4+–110.4%
4+–24.0%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,73–0,77
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@3.20EV+3%
Over 2,568%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Deportivo Toluca to win76%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score46%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score46%
- Felipe Sánchez to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.554% probability@1.95PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.532% probability@3.20Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Deportivo Toluca | X | 2 · Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.28 | 6.40 | 9.20 |
| Betsafe | 1.23 | 5.70 | 9.70 |
| Betsson | 1.23 | 5.70 | 9.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.23 | 5.70 | 9.70 |
| Paddy Power | 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.70 | 9.60 |
Odds updated 17 Sept, 06:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDeportivo Toluca 3Draw 0Santos Laguna 1
Goals: 9–6 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Deportivo Toluca come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Deportivo Toluca win 70% of their home matches all-time (46 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Deportivo Toluca
Santos Laguna
Deportivo Toluca (18–6)
Santos Laguna (6–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Deportivo Toluca
Santos Laguna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Deportivo Toluca
Santos Laguna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Deportivo Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 4 |
| xPoints | 13.4 | 9 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Deportivo Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 495 | 380 |
| Passes against per match | 283 | 398 |
| Switches of play per match | 36.9 | 37 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Deportivo Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 7.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| Other | Deportivo Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Luis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca) | Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 40 |
| Save % | 91% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Atlas – Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- Atlético San Luis – Necaxa19 September 2026
- Puebla – Atlante19 September 2026 03:00 CEST
- FC Juárez – Tigres UANL19 September 2026 05:00 CEST
- Club América – CD Guadalajara20 September 2026
- Monterrey – Cruz Azul20 September 2026 03:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Tijuana21 September 2026 02:00 CEST
- Querétaro – León21 September 2026 04:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Deportivo Toluca vs Santos Laguna according to our model?
The model gives Deportivo Toluca a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Toluca 76%, draw 15%, Santos Laguna 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.