Liga MXEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca15°2,1 mm13 km/h

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    PachucaPachucaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    TijuanaTijuanaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Pachuca (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tijuana @ 4.44 (+25 %)

    Pachuca vs Tijuana · Liga MX

    1 · Pachuca 44%X 28%28% Tijuana · 2

    Analysis: Pachuca – Tijuana

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Tijuana has the upper hand on the numbers against Pachuca, yet they're the underdogs at the bookmakers. Despite the model slightly favoring the hosts, a deeper look reveals reasons to doubt their edge. The visitors have claimed victory in three of their last four head-to-head matchups, albeit with a small sample size, which tempers the weight of these results. However, their overall season performance suggests a more consistent form.

    Tijuana's xG is notably higher at 1.8 per match compared to Pachuca's 1.3, hinting at a greater offensive capability. Defensively, Tijuana concedes fewer goals on average (0.95 xGA) compared to Pachuca's 1.5 xGA, emphasizing their stronger backline. These numbers contradict the model's lean towards Pachuca, highlighting an interesting tension between expected performance and betting odds.

    For Pachuca, the narrative is one of missed opportunities. Their expected goals match their actual points closely, but they remain behind Tijuana in both categories. Their counter-attacking and crossing game hasn't yielded the results they might have hoped for, particularly against a physical Tijuana side that's adept at disrupting such tactics.

    The most likely scoreline of 1-1 aligns with a tight match, reflecting the model's expected goals of 1.41 for Pachuca and 1.09 for Tijuana. With a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, this one leans slightly towards the under, especially given the visitors' solid defensive record.

    Given the data, value lies with Tijuana at odds of 4.25 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model sees a 28% chance of an away win, translating to a significant 20% edge. For those seeking value, this could be the angle to exploit.

    PachucaPachuca
    Form LDDWW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #8xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Salomon RondonFxG 0.62 · xT 0.02
    • Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.26
    • Christian RiveraCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    TijuanaTijuana
    Form DWLWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #5xP/match #1Points #7
    Key players
    • Gilberto MoraFxG 0.77 · xT 0.24
    • Alejandro GomezCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
    • Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Pachuca – Tijuana

    Predicted score matrix

    Tijuana →
    Pachuca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.5%
    0–18.5%
    0–24.9%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–011.2%
    1–113.0%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–18.9%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.2%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,41–1,09
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.07EV+10%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.76

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Pachuca or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.87

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Pachuca or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score32%
    • Christian Hernando Rivera Cuéllar to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Tijuana28% probability@4.44PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Tijuana28% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • 2 · Tijuana28% probability@4.25BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PachucaX2 · Tijuana
    Betfair Exchange1.101.101.10
    Betsafe1.75
    EV+ 0%
    3.60
    EV+ 20%
    4.25
    Betsson1.75
    EV+ 0%
    3.60
    EV+ 20%
    4.25
    Nordicbet1.75
    EV+ 0%
    3.60
    EV+ 20%
    4.25
    Pinnacle1.75
    EV+ 7%
    3.83
    EV+ 25%
    4.44

    Odds updated 16 Sept, 15:58

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    55 %50 %

    1.84 → 1.75

    X+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.73 → 3.83

    2+9 %
    25 %20 %

    4.08 → 4.44

    Over 2,5-1 %
    56 %51 %

    1.77 → 1.76

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 16/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Pachuca 1Draw 0Tijuana 3
    Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Pachuca
    Tijuana
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Pachuca (13–8)
    Tijuana (10–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Pachuca
    Carlos Sanchez: 178 passningar, xT 0.99SanchezChristian Rivera: 171 passningar, xT 0.25RiveraSergio Barreto: 154 passningar, xT 0.21BarretoOussama Idrissi: 141 passningar, xT 0.28IdrissiEduardo Bauermann: 140 passningar, xT 0.2BauermannFrancisco Venegas: 132 passningar, xT 0.35VenegasCarlos Moreno: 104 passningar, xT 0.22MorenoAlan Bautista: 94 passningar, xT 0.47BautistaElias Montiel: 87 passningar, xT 0.01MontielSergio Lenin Rodríguez Rodelas: 86 passningar, xT 0.04RodelasRobert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento: 59 passningar, xT 0.11Nascimento
    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 290 passningar, xT 0.67GomezIvan Tona: 260 passningar, xT 0.73TonaJackson Porozo: 216 passningar, xT 0.06PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 163 passningar, xT 0.07RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 144 passningar, xT 0.29InzunzaAlan Vega: 127 passningar, xT 0.3VegaGilberto Mora: 126 passningar, xT 0.89MoraRamiro Arciga: 76 passningar, xT 0.73ArcigaYael Padilla: 75 passningar, xT 0.4PadillaAdonis Preciado: 74 passningar, xT 1.77PreciadoPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 69 passningar, xT 0.12Orozco
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Pachuca
    Carlos Sanchez: 178 passningar, xT 0.99SanchezChristian Rivera: 171 passningar, xT 0.25RiveraSergio Barreto: 154 passningar, xT 0.21BarretoOussama Idrissi: 141 passningar, xT 0.28IdrissiEduardo Bauermann: 140 passningar, xT 0.2BauermannFrancisco Venegas: 132 passningar, xT 0.35VenegasCarlos Moreno: 104 passningar, xT 0.22MorenoAlan Bautista: 94 passningar, xT 0.47BautistaElias Montiel: 87 passningar, xT 0.01MontielSergio Lenin Rodríguez Rodelas: 86 passningar, xT 0.04RodelasRobert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento: 59 passningar, xT 0.11Nascimento
    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 290 passningar, xT 0.67GomezIvan Tona: 260 passningar, xT 0.73TonaJackson Porozo: 216 passningar, xT 0.06PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 163 passningar, xT 0.07RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 144 passningar, xT 0.29InzunzaAlan Vega: 127 passningar, xT 0.3VegaGilberto Mora: 126 passningar, xT 0.89MoraRamiro Arciga: 76 passningar, xT 0.73ArcigaYael Padilla: 75 passningar, xT 0.4PadillaAdonis Preciado: 74 passningar, xT 1.77PreciadoPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 69 passningar, xT 0.12Orozco

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePachucaTijuana
    Points1113
    xPoints10.613.4
    xG per match1.31.8
    xGA per match1.50.95
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.11
    Playing stylePachucaTijuana
    Build-up efficiency0.320.29
    Field tilt0.460.38
    xT per match1.11.3
    xTA per match1.11
    Won balls, offensive half2621
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.21
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1313
    Pass completion %0.750.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.73
    Passes per match318347
    Passes against per match402411
    Switches of play per match31.136.3
    Long balls per match4442
    Set piecesPachucaTijuana
    xG from free kicks0.090.02
    Corners per match4.44.3
    Corners against per match4.35.6
    xG per corner0.030.06
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.610.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.51
    OtherPachucaTijuana
    Throw-in control0.70.74
    The goalkeepersCarlos Moreno (Pachuca)Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)
    Saves2521
    Save %76%72%
    xG prevented31%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Pachuca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tijuana
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Pachuca vs Tijuana according to our model?

    The model gives Pachuca a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pachuca 44%, draw 28%, Tijuana 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.