Querétaro vs León: Prediction & Odds (21 Sept 2026)

Liga MX21 September 2026 04:00 CESTEstadio Corregidora, Querétaro20°9,3 mm8 km/h

Läs på svenska

QuerétaroLow block & direct

LeónPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Querétaro (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.53 (+13 %)

1 · Querétaro 40%X 32%28% León · 2

40%

32%

28%

Analysis: Querétaro – León

Sofia Andersson · 16 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Four encounters since 2023 between Querétaro and León have seen the hosts win once, draw once, and lose twice. This small head-to-head sample slightly favors León. Yet, it pales in comparison to the current form and expected goals data, which point to a different narrative. The model favors Querétaro at 40%, suggesting a home advantage that León must navigate carefully.

Querétaro’s attacking efficiency stands out, with an expected goals per match of 1.4, outpacing León’s 1.3. This offensive edge is complemented by their direct style of play, likely to challenge León's possession-based approach. However, Querétaro’s defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 1.6 goals against per match compared to León’s 1.3. The rain forecast may dampen any high-scoring expectations, but the model has accounted for this, reflecting an equilibrium in the goals prediction.

The model's most likely scorelines suggest a tight contest: 1-1 at 12% and 1-0 at 10%. The 50% probability for over 2.5 goals indicates a coin flip scenario, but with the weather and defensive considerations, leaning slightly under seems prudent. Additionally, the 53% likelihood for both teams to score supports a narrow focus on these lower scorelines.

The sharpest angle comes with the draw, valued at 3.45 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering an 11% edge according to the model. Querétaro’s home odds might tempt some, but the draw holds significant value. It aligns with both the model's balanced probabilities and the restrained expected goals, making a stalemate the shrewd play here.

Querétaro

Form WDLWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #6xP/match #7Points #5

Key players

Ali AvilaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.06
Carlo Adriano García PradesCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Santiago HomenchenkoCDMxG 0.33 · xT 0.15

León

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #12xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Diber CambindoFxG 0.48 · xT -0.02
Jordi CortizoRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
Alfonso AlvaradoFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Querétaro – León

Predicted score matrix

León →

Querétaro →

0–07.3%

0–17.4%

0–24.4%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.4%

1–112.4%

1–26.8%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.3%

2–19.3%

2–25.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.3%

3–14.8%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,12

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.14EV+4%

Over 2,550%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Querétaro or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Querétaro or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Mateo Agustín Coronel to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Mateo Agustín Coronel to score26%
José Iván Rodríguez Rebollar to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.53PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
Under 1.525% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+13%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.50Paddy PowerEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Querétaro	X	2 · León
Betsafe	2.42	EV+ 11% 3.45	2.65
Betsson	2.42	EV+ 11% 3.45	2.65
Nordicbet	2.42	EV+ 11% 3.45	2.65
Paddy Power	2.20	EV+ 12% 3.50	2.70
Pinnacle	2.46	EV+ 13% 3.53	2.75

Odds updated 17 Sept, 04:59

Odds movement

1+4 %

42 %37 %

2.37 → 2.46

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.48 → 3.53

2-5 %

36 %31 %

2.91 → 2.75

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Querétaro 1Draw 1León 2

Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Querétaro

León

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Querétaro (10–7)

León (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Querétaro

León

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Querétaro

León

The teams in numbers

Performance	Querétaro	León
Points	13	13
xPoints	10.3	11.7
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.2

Playing style	Querétaro	León
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.47
xT per match	1.1	0.96
xTA per match	1.2	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.22
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.7	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	236	347
Passes against per match	377	383
Switches of play per match	18.1	27.4
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Querétaro	León
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	3.9	4.4
Corners against per match	7.7	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.61

Other	Querétaro	León
Throw-in control	0.59	0.68

The goalkeepers	Guillermo Allison (Querétaro)	Oscar Garcia (León)
Saves	19	25
Save %	76%	74%
xG prevented	51%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Querétaro

Fixtures, form & tips

León

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Querétaro vs León according to our model?

The model gives Querétaro a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Querétaro 40%, draw 32%, León 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.