Liga MXEstadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca15°0,2 mm10 km/h

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    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo TolucaPossession control
    3–1
    NecaxaNecaxaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Toluca (68%)

    Deportivo Toluca vs Necaxa · Liga MX

    1 · Deportivo Toluca 68%X 19%13% Necaxa · 2

    Analysis: Deportivo Toluca – Necaxa

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Deportivo Toluca's unblemished head-to-head record against Club Necaxa since 2023 — four wins from four encounters — sets the stage for a fascinating clash. With a 68% probability tipped in their favor by the model, and a 67% home win rate in their last 43 matches, Deportivo Toluca appears poised to maintain their dominance. The bookmakers at Pinnacle offer a tempting EV+ at 1.515, underscoring the home side's advantage by a 3% edge.

    Interestingly, both teams like to control possession, a tactical choice that might turn this into a midfield chess match. However, the expected goals tell a story of disparity: Deportivo Toluca is anticipated to score 2.27 goals to Necaxa's 0.98. While Deportivo Toluca's xGA per match is slightly better than Necaxa’s, their xG per match lags behind, which could be a chink in their otherwise sturdy armor.

    Club Necaxa might be ahead in the league standings with six points to Deportivo Toluca's three, but when the two sides meet, history and current form favor the home side. The most likely scorelines mirror this notion, with both 2-0 and 2-1 appearing as 10% probabilities. Deportivo Toluca's chance of conceding is reflected in the 56% probability of both teams finding the net, but it seems more likely that the match will edge over the 2.5 goals mark, a 63% probability that beckons over bettors.

    Club Necaxa's superior xG of 2.3 per match suggests they can be a threat, yet Deportivo Toluca's defensive discipline should suppress any ambition the visitors have. Given the numbers and historical dominance, a 2-0 home win feels the most plausible outcome, with the over 2.5 goals market looking particularly appealing for punters.

    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo Toluca
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #11xP/match #3Points #13
    Key players
    • Jorge Roberto Díaz PriceFxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
    • Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.27
    • Federico PereiraCBxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
    NecaxaNecaxa
    Form DDLWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #5xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.92 · xT 0.08
    • Agustin OliverosLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
    • Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Deportivo Toluca 68% · Draw 19% · Necaxa 13%

    Match prediction: Deportivo Toluca – Necaxa

    Predicted score matrix

    Necaxa →
    Deportivo Toluca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–13.6%
    0–21.9%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–08.6%
    1–18.9%
    1–24.2%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–07.6%
    3–17.4%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–07.3%
    4+–17.1%
    4+–23.5%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-19%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,27–0,98
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,537%
    –
    Over 2,563%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Deportivo Toluca to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Deportivo Toluca to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jorge Roberto Díaz Price to score44%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jorge Roberto Díaz Price to score44%
    • Francisco Javier Méndez Lara to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Deportivo Toluca68% probability@1.51PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Deportivo TolucaX2 · Necaxa
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.51    		4.715.92

    Odds updated 3 Aug, 02:08

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    65 %60 %

    1.54 → 1.51

    X+12 %
    24 %19 %

    4.20 → 4.71

    2+1 %
    19 %14 %

    5.86 → 5.92

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 03/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Deportivo Toluca 4Draw 0Necaxa 0
    Goals: 14–4 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Deportivo Toluca win 67% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo Toluca
    Necaxa
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Deportivo Toluca (3–2)
    Necaxa (4–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Toluca
    Bruno Mendez: 84 passningar, xT 0.18MendezFranco Romero: 76 passningar, xT 0.07RomeroNicolás Federico Castro: 69 passningar, xT 0.19CastroFederico Pereira: 61 passningar, xT 0.03PereiraLuan: 59 passningar, xT 0.04LuanVictor Guzman: 59 passningar, xT 0.01GuzmanHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 57 passningar, xT 0.39CastroAlexis Vega: 56 passningar, xT 0.03VegaFernando Arce: 56 passningar, xT 0.01ArceJesus Gallardo: 51 passningar, xT 0.28GallardoSantiago Simón: 51 passningar, xT 0.04Simón
    Necaxa
    Daniel Ulises Leyva: 103 passningar, xT 0.23LeyvaRaul Martinez: 89 passningar, xT 0.09MartinezFrancisco Javier Méndez Lara: 76 passningar, xT 0.1LaraAgustin Oliveros: 67 passningar, xT 0.21OliverosLuis Ronaldo Jiménez González: 50 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezCarlos Vargas: 49 passningar, xT 0.16VargasRicardo Monreal: 39 passningar, xT 0.17MonrealLorenzo Faravelli: 38 passningar, xT 0.47FaravelliJavier Ezequiel Ruiz: 37 passningar, xT 0.37RuizAlexis Pena: 37 passningar, xT 0.02PenaEmi Rodriguez: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Rodriguez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Toluca
    Bruno Mendez: 84 passningar, xT 0.18MendezFranco Romero: 76 passningar, xT 0.07RomeroNicolás Federico Castro: 69 passningar, xT 0.19CastroFederico Pereira: 61 passningar, xT 0.03PereiraLuan: 59 passningar, xT 0.04LuanVictor Guzman: 59 passningar, xT 0.01GuzmanHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 57 passningar, xT 0.39CastroAlexis Vega: 56 passningar, xT 0.03VegaFernando Arce: 56 passningar, xT 0.01ArceJesus Gallardo: 51 passningar, xT 0.28GallardoSantiago Simón: 51 passningar, xT 0.04Simón
    Necaxa
    Daniel Ulises Leyva: 103 passningar, xT 0.23LeyvaRaul Martinez: 89 passningar, xT 0.09MartinezFrancisco Javier Méndez Lara: 76 passningar, xT 0.1LaraAgustin Oliveros: 67 passningar, xT 0.21OliverosLuis Ronaldo Jiménez González: 50 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezCarlos Vargas: 49 passningar, xT 0.16VargasRicardo Monreal: 39 passningar, xT 0.17MonrealLorenzo Faravelli: 38 passningar, xT 0.47FaravelliJavier Ezequiel Ruiz: 37 passningar, xT 0.37RuizAlexis Pena: 37 passningar, xT 0.02PenaEmi Rodriguez: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Rodriguez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDeportivo TolucaNecaxa
    Points36
    xPoints3.53.7
    xG per match1.62.3
    xGA per match0.80.83
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.14
    Playing styleDeportivo TolucaNecaxa
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.670.7
    xT per match0.871.2
    xTA per match0.930.37
    Won balls, offensive half2625
    Pressing intensity0.20.2
    Pressing efficiency0.30.42
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.45
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against106
    Pass completion %0.810.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.65
    Passes per match497352
    Passes against per match269159
    Switches of play per match41.125.4
    Long balls per match4935
    Set piecesDeportivo TolucaNecaxa
    xG from free kicks0.040.07
    Corners per match5.57.5
    Corners against per match53
    xG per corner00.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.090.27
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.17
    OtherDeportivo TolucaNecaxa
    Throw-in control0.650.64
    The goalkeepersLuis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca)Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa)
    Saves43
    Save %100%60%
    xG prevented100%14%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Deportivo Toluca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Necaxa
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Deportivo Toluca vs Necaxa according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Toluca a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Toluca 68%, draw 19%, Necaxa 13%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.