01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cruz Azul to win73%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MX18°9,5 mm5 km/h
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Cruz AzulPossession controlvs
AtlasPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (73%)
Cruz Azul – Atlas · Liga MX
1 · Cruz Azul 73%X 17%10% Atlas · 2
73%
17%
Analysis: Cruz Azul – Atlas
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
The number 73 looms large over this matchup, and it’s not just CD Cruz Azul’s win probability according to the model. It’s the echo of dominance stitched into their recent performances against Atlas Guadalajara, having won 3 of the past 6 encounters without tasting defeat. While their historical edge in this fixture is clear, the small head-to-head sample should be tempered by current form and expected goals, where CD Cruz Azul also hold the upper hand.
CD Cruz Azul, known for their possession control, boast an expected goals tally of 2.07 against Atlas’s 0.74. This disparity is reflected in the model’s most likely scorelines, favoring a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for the home side. Their ability to generate 0.26 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball underscores their capacity to translate possession into meaningful chances, further augmenting their 66% home win rate across 44 matches.
Atlas Guadalajara, meanwhile, must contend with a less favorable xG of 1.1 per match and an alarmingly high xGA of 0.66 within 8 seconds of losing possession, suggesting vulnerabilities that CD Cruz Azul are well-equipped to exploit. Despite both teams preferring a possession-based style, it is the hosts who are more adept at turning control into end product.
With an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 53%, there’s a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair, but given the defensive frailties of Atlas and CD Cruz Azul's control of proceedings, a cautiously optimistic 2-0 to the home side seems on the cards. The weather might play a part if adverse, but it's already factored into the numbers.
For the sharp-minded punter, the real gem lies in the value offerings: CD Cruz Azul’s home win at odds of 1.7 is a tantalizing prospect with a 24% edge flagged by the model across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. When the numbers align this strongly, it’s a signal worth heeding.
Cruz AzulForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #2xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Jeremy MarquezRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.35
- Carlos RotondiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
- Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
AtlasForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #17xP/match #11Points #9
Key players
- Arturo GonzalezCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
- Gustavo FerrareisRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Sergio Ismael Hernández FloresFxG 0.07 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Cruz Azul – Atlas
Predicted score matrix
Atlas →
Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–14.2%
0–21.6%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–012.2%
1–19.5%
1–23.4%
1–30.8%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.9%
2–19.5%
2–23.5%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.9%
3–16.6%
3–22.4%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–07.5%
4+–15.5%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,07–0,74
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.08
Over 2,553%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Cruz Azul to win73%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Nicolás Alejandro Ibáñez to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Nicolás Alejandro Ibáñez to score34%
- Víctor Hugo Ríos de Alba to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Cruz Azul73% probability@1.43BetsafeEV+4%
- 1 · Cruz Azul73% probability@1.43BetssonEV+4%
- 1 · Cruz Azul73% probability@1.43NordicbetEV+4%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cruz Azul | X | 2 · Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
| Betsson | EV+ 4% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
Odds updated 16 Aug, 14:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Cruz Azul win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 1.70 to 1.43 (−16%).
1-16 %
70 %50 %
1.70 → 1.43
X+15 %
34 %14 %
3.60 → 4.15
2+46 %
26 %6 %
4.65 → 6.80
Over 2,5-10 %
62 %42 %
1.88 → 1.70
Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesCruz Azul 3Draw 3Atlas 0
Goals: 12–8 (⌀ 3,3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CD Cruz Azul dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
- CD Cruz Azul win 66% of their home matches all-time (44 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cruz Azul
Atlas
Cruz Azul (7–6)
Atlas (4–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Atlas
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Atlas
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cruz Azul | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.66 |
| Playing style | Cruz Azul | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 0.61 |
| xTA per match | 0.85 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 437 | 318 |
| Passes against per match | 252 | 355 |
| Switches of play per match | 36 | 32.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Cruz Azul | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Other | Cruz Azul | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) | Antonio Sanchez (Atlas) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 6 |
| Save % | 70% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cruz Azul vs Atlas according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 73%, draw 17%, Atlas 10%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.