01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Club América to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Azteca, Mexico City18°4,4 mm11 km/h
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Club AméricaPossession controlvs
Atlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Club América (67%)
Club América – Atlético San Luis · Liga MX
1 · Club América 67%X 19%14% Atlético San Luis · 2
67%
19%
14%
Analysis: Club América – Atlético San Luis
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
With a 67% chance of victory according to the model, CF America appears poised to extend their unbeaten streak to six matches when they host Atletico de San Luis. The numbers are compelling: CF America win 65% of their home matches in this sample, and they've outperformed Atletico de San Luis in both expected goals (1.7 vs 0.85) and expected goals against (0.98 vs 1.3). This paints a picture of dominance in both attack and defense, a fortress mentality that is unlikely to crumble against a San Luis side struggling to find form.
CF America's style, focused on possession control, sets up well against a San Luis team that relies on counterattacks and crosses. The likely rain, with 4.4 mm expected, may dampen the attacking verve of both sides, but that complements CF America's methodical approach, which is less likely to be thrown off by adverse weather.
Four head-to-head encounters since 2023 is a small sample size, and more relevant is the overall form and tactical strength shown in the league. CF America's expected goals of 1.98 dwarfs Atletico de San Luis' 0.95, reinforcing the likelihood of a home win. The model's most likely scorelines are 2-0, 1-1, and 1-0, each at 10%, underscoring CF America's edge while also hinting at the possibility of a low-scoring affair.
For punters, the sharpest betting angle lies in the value found with CF America at home, priced at odds 1.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, where the model shows a 4% edge. The over 2.5 goals line at 56% suggests a lean towards a moderately open game, yet given the weather and the teams' strategic tendencies, a 2-0 win for CF America seems the most probable outcome.
Club AméricaForm DDWDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #7xP/match #5Points #1
Key players
- Cristian BorjaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
- Isaias ViolanteRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.34
- Dagoberto EspinozaRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
Atlético San LuisForm WLLDD
League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #14xP/match #14Points #15
Key players
- David RodriguezRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
- Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04
- Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Club América – Atlético San Luis
Predicted score matrix
Atlético San Luis →
Club América →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–14.8%
0–22.4%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.3%
1–110.3%
1–24.8%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.9%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.9%
3–16.6%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.4%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,98–0,95
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.21
Over 2,556%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Club América to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score35%
- Óscar Uriel Macías Mora to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Club América67% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+4%
- 1 · Club América67% probability@1.55BetssonEV+4%
- 1 · Club América67% probability@1.55NordicbetEV+4%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Club América | X | 2 · Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.90 |
| Betsson | EV+ 4% 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.90 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 1.55 | 3.85 | 5.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.53 | 4.37 | 5.69 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesClub América 2Draw 0Atlético San Luis 2
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF America are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- CF America win 65% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Club América
Atlético San Luis
Club América (5–1)
Atlético San Luis (4–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Club América
Atlético San Luis
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Club América
Atlético San Luis
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Club América | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 2 |
| xPoints | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.85 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| Playing style | Club América | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 406 | 473 |
| Passes against per match | 263 | 336 |
| Switches of play per match | 47.6 | 23.5 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Club América | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 8.3 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| Other | Club América | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) | Andres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 7 |
| Save % | 92% | 58% |
| xG prevented | 92% | 22% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Club América vs Atlético San Luis according to our model?
The model gives Club América a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Club América 67%, draw 19%, Atlético San Luis 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.