Monterrey vs FC Juárez: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Liga MX16 August 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio BBVA, Monterrey30°30 km/h

Läs på svenska

MonterreyPossession control

FC JuárezPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Monterrey (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.61 (+11 %)

1 · Monterrey 57%X 24%19% FC Juárez · 2

57%

24%

19%

Analysis: Monterrey – FC Juárez

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

CF Monterrey's home fortress might just be the setting where FC Juarez's troubles deepen. With Monterrey having won 57% of their home outings historically and Juarez faltering with three consecutive defeats, the stage is set for the home side to assert their dominance. The model suggests Monterrey are 57% favourites to bag all three points, and with a compelling expected goals figure of 1.92 against Juarez's 1.06, it's hard to argue against the numbers.

Juarez's current losing streak contrasts sharply with Monterrey's history of resilience at home. Despite both teams sharing a tactical preference for possession control, Monterrey's execution is evidently more lethal. Their head-to-head record since 2023 is a modest 2-1-1 in Monterrey's favour, but with only four matches accounted for, this sample is small and less telling than the form and expected goals statistics. More revealing is Monterrey's xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, standing at 0.51 compared to Juarez's 0.23 — an indicator of their incisiveness in capitalizing on turnovers.

The most likely scorelines of 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), and 1-0 (10%) suggest a close affair, albeit with Monterrey having the edge. The draw at 4.61 with Pinnacle offers an enticing 11% edge, yet the likelihood of Juarez pulling off an upset at 5.59, while mathematically attractive, feels distant given their current form.

CF Monterrey, with their robust home record, seem poised for a 2-1 victory, fittingly aligning with the over 2.5 goals likelihood of 57%. Still, there’s tactical intrigue in the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe's odds of 2.48 offer a 6% edge — a nod to the possibility of a more controlled, less explosive match where possession may be prized over prolificacy. As the whistle blows, the betting angles are as intriguing as the football, with CF Monterrey standing ready to make the most of both.

Monterrey

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #15xT #15xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Oliver TorresFxG 0.11 · xT 0.21
Diego Martín Rossi MarachlianFxG 0.67 · xT 0.05
Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

FC Juárez

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #11xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Haret OrtegaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Guilherme CastilhoCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Monterrey – FC Juárez

Predicted score matrix

FC Juárez →

Monterrey →

0–05.4%

0–15.1%

0–22.9%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.5%

1–110.6%

1–25.5%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.0%

3–16.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.5%

4+–14.7%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,92–1,06

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.42EV+4%

Over 2,557%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Monterrey to win57%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Monterrey to win57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Diego Martín Rossi Marachlian to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Diego Martín Rossi Marachlian to score34%
Óscar Haret Ortega Gatica to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw24% probability@4.61PinnacleEV+11%
2 · FC Juárez19% probability@5.59PinnacleEV+9%
2 · FC Juárez19% probability@5.40BetsafeEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Monterrey	X	2 · FC Juárez
Betsafe	1.52	EV+ 1% 4.20	EV+ 5% 5.40
Betsson	1.52	EV+ 1% 4.20	EV+ 5% 5.40
Nordicbet	1.52	EV+ 1% 4.20	EV+ 5% 5.40
Pinnacle	1.50	EV+ 11% 4.61	EV+ 9% 5.59

Odds updated 13 Aug, 09:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Monterrey 2Draw 1FC Juárez 1

Goals: 10–8 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Juarez have lost 3 in a row.
CF Monterrey win 57% of their home matches all-time (63 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monterrey

FC Juárez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monterrey (6–4)

FC Juárez (1–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monterrey

FC Juárez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monterrey

FC Juárez

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monterrey	FC Juárez
Points	6	0
xPoints	5.2	2.4
xG per match	1.7	0.6
xGA per match	1.7	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.51	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.31

Playing style	Monterrey	FC Juárez
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.27
Field tilt	0.44	0.33
xT per match	0.64	0.87
xTA per match	0.94	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.25
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	12	20
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	331	299
Passes against per match	339	407
Switches of play per match	27.1	24.1
Long balls per match	34	34

Set pieces	Monterrey	FC Juárez
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	2.6	3
Corners against per match	5	8.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.46

Other	Monterrey	FC Juárez
Throw-in control	0.67	0.66

The goalkeepers	Luis Cardenas (Monterrey)	Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez)
Saves	9	11
Save %	69%	61%
xG prevented	25%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monterrey vs FC Juárez according to our model?

The model gives Monterrey a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monterrey 57%, draw 24%, FC Juárez 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.