Liga MXEstadio Akron, Guadalajara21°19,9 mm10 km/h

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    CD GuadalajaraCD GuadalajaraPossession & high press
    vs
    TijuanaTijuanaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · CD Guadalajara (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tijuana @ 6.80 (+25 %)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    CD Guadalajara – Tijuana · Liga MX

    1 · CD Guadalajara 56%X 25%18% Tijuana · 2

    Analysis: CD Guadalajara – Tijuana

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Four matches in and the head-to-head record between Club Deportivo Guadalajara and Club Tijuana is as balanced as it gets: one win each, two draws. Yet, it's the recent form and underlying numbers that tell a more compelling tale. Club Tijuana's unbeaten streak of nine league games is a testament to their resilience, juxtaposed against Guadalajara's struggle for consistency. Despite Tijuana's defensive fortitude, Guadalajara's model-assigned 56% win probability underscores their attacking intent and home advantage.

    Club Deportivo Guadalajara open their playbook with possession and high press, aiming to wear down Tijuana's low defensive block. With expected goals of 1.84 to 0.91 in favour of Guadalajara, their forward momentum looks set to outpace Tijuana's direct approach. Yet, the expected goals against (xGA) metric tips the defensive scales towards Tijuana, 1.0 versus Guadalajara's 1.0, signalling a potential chess match rather than a barnstormer.

    With 21.9°C and 19.1 mm of rain on the horizon, the heavens are likely to play a damp role in proceedings. Wet conditions could stifle fluidity, diminishing the chances of an end-to-end goal fest. The over/under 2.5 goals market teeters at 52%, a near coin flip, but the weather hints at a tighter affair.

    Club Tijuana may find themselves under the cosh, yet there's value in backing them at odds of 6.8 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Rated at 18%, the model sees a 25% edge in this wager, making it a tantalizing proposition for the betting savvy. While Guadalajara may prevail, the smart money recognizes the value in an upset.

    CD GuadalajaraCD Guadalajara
    Form LLWDW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #1xP/match #9Points #8
    Key players
    • Armando GonzalezFxG 0.27 · xT -0.21
    • Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.21
    • Jordan CarrilloLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
    TijuanaTijuana
    Form DWWDW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #7xP/match #2Points #2
    Key players
    • Ignacio RiveroRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
    • Gilberto MoraCAMxG 0.52 · xT 0.11
    • Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: CD Guadalajara – Tijuana

    Predicted score matrix

    Tijuana →
    CD Guadalajara →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–15.5%
    0–22.6%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–111.0%
    1–24.9%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.8%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.6%
    3–16.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–04.6%
    4+–14.2%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-011%
    2. 2.1-111%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,84–0,91
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.22EV+7%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • CD Guadalajara to win56%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.11

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • CD Guadalajara to win56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Ricardo Marín Sánchez to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Diego Fernando Abreu Firenze to score23%
    • Iván Oswaldo Tona Olmeda to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Tijuana18% probability@6.80BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Tijuana18% probability@6.80BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Tijuana18% probability@6.80NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CD GuadalajaraX2 · Tijuana
    Betsafe1.43
    EV+ 5%
    4.15
    EV+ 25%
    6.80
    Betsson1.43
    EV+ 5%
    4.15
    EV+ 25%
    6.80
    Nordicbet1.43
    EV+ 5%
    4.15
    EV+ 25%
    6.80

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 2.42 to 2.22 (−8%).

    1-4 %
    65 %60 %

    1.49 → 1.43

    X-1 %
    25 %20 %

    4.20 → 4.15

    2+15 %
    18 %13 %

    5.90 → 6.80

    Over 2,5+7 %
    62 %57 %

    1.52 → 1.62

    Betsson · 31 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    CD Guadalajara 1Draw 2Tijuana 1
    Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3,8)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Club Tijuana are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    CD Guadalajara
    Tijuana
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    CD Guadalajara (3–3)
    Tijuana (6–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 281 passningar, xT 1.24RomoRoberto Alvarado: 207 passningar, xT 0.2AlvaradoFernando Gonzalez: 168 passningar, xT 0.45GonzalezDaniel Aguirre: 168 passningar, xT 0.43AguirreJordan Carrillo: 153 passningar, xT 0.26CarrilloDiego Campillo: 146 passningar, xT 0.32CampilloBrian Gutiérrez: 143 passningar, xT 0.74GutiérrezRichard Ledezma: 139 passningar, xT 0.62LedezmaJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62CastilloRaul Rangel: 111 passningar, xT 0.07RangelOmar Govea: 108 passningar, xT 0.25Govea
    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 199 passningar, xT 0.49GomezIvan Tona: 179 passningar, xT 0.65TonaJackson Porozo: 138 passningar, xT 0.13PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 126 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 108 passningar, xT 0.64InzunzaPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 89 passningar, xT 0.08OrozcoRamiro Arciga: 59 passningar, xT 0.59ArcigaGilberto Mora: 55 passningar, xT 0.12MoraAdonis Preciado: 43 passningar, xT 0.48PreciadoAngel Zapata: 42 passningar, xT -0.01ZapataYael Padilla: 38 passningar, xT 0.11Padilla
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 281 passningar, xT 1.24RomoRoberto Alvarado: 207 passningar, xT 0.2AlvaradoFernando Gonzalez: 168 passningar, xT 0.45GonzalezDaniel Aguirre: 168 passningar, xT 0.43AguirreJordan Carrillo: 153 passningar, xT 0.26CarrilloDiego Campillo: 146 passningar, xT 0.32CampilloBrian Gutiérrez: 143 passningar, xT 0.74GutiérrezRichard Ledezma: 139 passningar, xT 0.62LedezmaJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62CastilloRaul Rangel: 111 passningar, xT 0.07RangelOmar Govea: 108 passningar, xT 0.25Govea
    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 199 passningar, xT 0.49GomezIvan Tona: 179 passningar, xT 0.65TonaJackson Porozo: 138 passningar, xT 0.13PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 126 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 108 passningar, xT 0.64InzunzaPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 89 passningar, xT 0.08OrozcoRamiro Arciga: 59 passningar, xT 0.59ArcigaGilberto Mora: 55 passningar, xT 0.12MoraAdonis Preciado: 43 passningar, xT 0.48PreciadoAngel Zapata: 42 passningar, xT -0.01ZapataYael Padilla: 38 passningar, xT 0.11Padilla

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCD GuadalajaraTijuana
    Points710
    xPoints5.47.8
    xG per match1.51.4
    xGA per match0.950.81
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.1
    Playing styleCD GuadalajaraTijuana
    Build-up efficiency0.330.29
    Field tilt0.70.29
    xT per match1.81
    xTA per match0.620.98
    Won balls, offensive half3118
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.19
    Entries into the box per match259
    Entries into the box against714
    Pass completion %0.830.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.73
    Passes per match548297
    Passes against per match325456
    Switches of play per match31.228.8
    Long balls per match3435
    Set piecesCD GuadalajaraTijuana
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match10.82.5
    Corners against per match2.66.3
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.60.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.52
    OtherCD GuadalajaraTijuana
    Throw-in control0.760.7
    The goalkeepersRaul Rangel (CD Guadalajara)Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)
    Saves1111
    Save %79%85%
    xG prevented37%72%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins CD Guadalajara vs Tijuana according to our model?

    The model gives CD Guadalajara a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Guadalajara 56%, draw 25%, Tijuana 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.