León vs Monterrey: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Liga MX23 August 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio León, León21°4,4 mm19 km/h

LeónPossession control

MonterreyPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · León (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+23 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · León 38%X 27%35% Monterrey · 2

38%

27%

35%

Analysis: León – Monterrey

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four matches played and four matches lost: that's Club Leon FC's grim head-to-head record against CF Monterrey since the start of 2023. This narrow sample does weigh less than overall form and expected goals, but it's a psychological hurdle that looms large. Yet, numbers tell a different story for this clash, as Club Leon's current match probabilities suggest an intriguing plot twist.

The betting model leans toward Club Leon FC, handing them a 38% chance of victory despite their past struggles. Such optimism is underpinned by their expected goals tally of 1.29, which, although slightly less than Monterrey's 1.39, reveals a potential to break their duck. The rain forecast, with 14.3 mm expected, might dampen scoring opportunities, but the 50% over 2.5 goals and 55% both teams to score metrics hint at some life in this fixture.

CF Monterrey, sitting comfortably with nine points versus Club Leon's meager three, have shown a sharper edge this season. They enjoy a compelling xG of 2.0 per match against Club Leon’s 1.1, and marginally better defensive solidity with an xGA of 1.3 compared to Leon's 1.4. But what makes this matchup riveting is Club Leon's value proposition. With odds of 3.05 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and a calculated 16% edge, bettors might find value backing a home win despite Leon's poor head-to-head form.

A 1-1 draw edges out as the most probable scoreline at 13%, but the model's tilt towards Club Leon suggests a slender 1-0 home victory might not be outlandish. The damp conditions will likely suppress the scoring frenzy that might otherwise ensue between two possession-oriented sides. If you're chasing value, that 3.05 for a Leon surprise might just be the ticket.

León

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Jordi CortizoRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Juan José Guevara PossúCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Ivan MorenoRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15

Monterrey

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #13xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Oliver TorresFxG 0.10 · xT 0.28
Diego Martín Rossi MarachlianFxG 0.68 · xT 0.08
Hugo Jean-Marc CuypersFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: León – Monterrey

Predicted score matrix

Monterrey →

León →

0–07.3%

0–19.2%

0–26.6%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.5%

1–112.7%

1–28.5%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.7%

2–17.9%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.4%

3–13.4%

3–22.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,29–1,39

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.22EV+11%

Over 2,550%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance León or draw (1X)61%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance León or draw (1X)61%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Rodrigo Eduardo Echeverría Sáez to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Hugo Jean-Marc Cuypers to score21%
Óliver Torres Muñoz to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetssonEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · León	X	2 · Monterrey
Betsafe	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.60	2.05
Betsson	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.60	2.05
Nordicbet	EV+ 16% 3.05	3.60	2.05

Odds updated 18 Aug, 12:36

Odds movement

10 %

34 %29 %

3.05 → 3.05

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.60

2-5 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.05

Over 2,5+1 %

60 %55 %

1.58 → 1.60

Betsson · 23 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

León 0Draw 0Monterrey 4

Goals: 2–8 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

León

Monterrey

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

León (3–4)

Monterrey (12–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

León

Monterrey

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

León

Monterrey

The teams in numbers

Performance	León	Monterrey
Points	3	9
xPoints	3.2	8
xG per match	1.1	2
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.68
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.14

Playing style	León	Monterrey
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.65	0.52
xT per match	0.89	0.87
xTA per match	0.84	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	30	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.23
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	6	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	365	369
Passes against per match	315	323
Switches of play per match	28.8	30.7
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	León	Monterrey
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	6.2	4.5
Corners against per match	3.6	3.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.67

Other	León	Monterrey
Throw-in control	0.77	0.69

The goalkeepers	Oscar Garcia (León)	Luis Cardenas (Monterrey)
Saves	7	9
Save %	64%	64%
xG prevented	40%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins León vs Monterrey according to our model?

The model gives León a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: León 38%, draw 27%, Monterrey 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.