01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Puebla or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Liga MXEstadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla20°16 km/h
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PueblaLow block & directvs
Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Puebla (43%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 15.00 (+25 %)
Puebla – Santos Laguna · Liga MX
1 · Puebla 43%X 30%27% Santos Laguna · 2
43%
30%
27%
Analysis: Puebla – Santos Laguna
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Four consecutive losses for Santos Laguna cast a long shadow over their visit to Club Puebla, where the hosts are tipped as favourites with a 43% chance of victory. Puebla's recent upper hand in their head-to-head encounters—winning three of the last four clashes since 2023—adds weight to the narrative that they might just edge this encounter. Despite having a lower expected goals per match (0.88) compared to Santos Laguna's 1.4, Puebla's defensive edge, conceding only 1.3 xGA per match to Santos's 1.6, suggests they might be better at stifling the visitors' attack.
Club Puebla's style of low defence and direct play might just be the perfect antidote to Santos Laguna's counter-attacking and crossing tactics, especially with the visitors in such a rut. The most likely scoreline predictions of 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%) reflect a tight contest, but one where Puebla's recent form and their ability to eke out wins in these matchups could prove decisive. Although the draw is a tempting 30% probability, the current trajectory of Santos Laguna makes it seem less likely.
Puebla, with 4 points to their name compared to Santos's none, and an edge in xPoints (4.6 vs 3.1), have more than just momentum on their side—they have a tangible output in results. The expected goals for the match are 1.41 for Puebla and 1.12 for Santos, nudging the needle towards a low-scoring affair. However, with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at a mere 46% and both teams to score at 51%, a low-scoring outcome still looms large.
The sharpest angle isn't so much in predicting a scoreline, but in the alluring oddities of the betting landscape. With a 25% edge, the under 0.5 goals market presents tantalising value (EV+) at odds of 15.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. While a goalless draw might seem improbable, the numbers suggest it’s worth a punt, especially considering the weather effects already baked into the model’s figures. If you're a betting brain, that's where the real intrigue lies in this matchup.
PueblaForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #17xP/match #6Points #12
Key players
- Eduardo Mustre TorresFxG 0.40 · xT -0.02
- Alberto HerreraLWxG 0.02 · xT -0.01
- Emiliano GomezLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
Santos LagunaForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #5xP/match #16Points #17
Key players
- Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.22
- Fran VillalbaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
- Felipe SánchezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Puebla – Santos Laguna
Predicted score matrix
Santos Laguna →
Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–18.6%
0–25.0%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.9%
1–113.0%
1–27.0%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.9%
2–18.9%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,12
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.18EV+17%
Over 2,546%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Puebla or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Fernando Monárrez Ochoa to score14%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Eduardo Daniel Aguirre Lara to score24%
- Franco Emanuel Pardo to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00BetssonEV+25%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Puebla | X | 2 · Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 2.95 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Puebla win since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 2.68 to 2.22 (−17%).
1-17 %
44 %34 %
2.68 → 2.22
X-1 %
31 %21 %
3.50 → 3.45
2+22 %
39 %29 %
2.42 → 2.95
Over 2,5+3 %
62 %52 %
1.60 → 1.65
Betsson · 38 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPuebla 3Draw 0Santos Laguna 1
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Santos Laguna have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Puebla (3–3)
Santos Laguna (2–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Puebla
Santos Laguna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Puebla
Santos Laguna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Puebla | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 0 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Puebla | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.55 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 242 | 377 |
| Passes against per match | 526 | 454 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.3 | 33.7 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Puebla | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| Other | Puebla | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla) | Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 21 |
| Save % | 81% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 80% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Puebla vs Santos Laguna according to our model?
The model gives Puebla a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Puebla 43%, draw 30%, Santos Laguna 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.