Liga MXEstadio Caliente, Tijuana25°14 km/h

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    TijuanaTijuanaLow block & direct
    vs
    Cruz AzulCruz AzulPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Cruz Azul (49%)

    Tijuana – Cruz Azul · Liga MX

    1 · Tijuana 23%X 28%49% Cruz Azul · 2

    Analysis: Tijuana – Cruz Azul

    Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work

    Club Tijuana's steadfast resistance in their last 8 league outings, where they have remained unbeaten, sets up an intriguing clash against a CD Cruz Azul side that commands possession and dictates the tempo. Yet, the numbers suggest that Club Tijuana might be punching above their weight. Despite their recent form, the expected goals (xG) tell a more sobering tale: a meagre 1.07 per game compared to Cruz Azul's robust 1.63. This suggests that Tijuana's success may not be sustainable against a side that has shown an ability to create more meaningful chances.

    CD Cruz Azul, despite their possession dominance, have not always translated this into points on the board, as their tally of 6 points compared to Tijuana's 7 demonstrates. However, the model clearly leans towards Cruz Azul with a 49% probability of victory. The head-to-head since 2023 is still a small sample, but it slightly favours Cruz Azul with 3 wins to Tijuana’s 2 and a draw in between, which is in line with the model’s confidence in the visitors.

    Interestingly, while Club Tijuana have a better expected goals against (xGA) at 0.81 compared to Cruz Azul’s 1.4, the latter's ability to generate high xG per match at 2.0 should concern the home side. The most likely scorelines, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2, indicate a tight contest but tilt slightly towards a narrow victory for the visitors.

    Ultimately, the sharpest betting angle lies with CD Cruz Azul's away victory, where the value proposition is undeniable. Pinnacle offers odds of 2.25 for a Cruz Azul win, which the model rates with a significant 10% edge, making it an enticing prospect. With the probability of over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams likely to score at 53%, expect a match that edges just beyond the threshold for goals, with Cruz Azul likely to come out on top in a closely-fought battle.

    TijuanaTijuana
    Form WDWWD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #12xP/match #1Points #2
    Key players
    • Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
    • Alejandro GomezCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    • Ramiro ArcigaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    Form DWWWL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #2xP/match #10Points #6
    Key players
    • Jeremy MarquezRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.35
    • Carlos RotondiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
    • Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Tijuana – Cruz Azul

    Predicted score matrix

    Cruz Azul →
    Tijuana →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–110.6%
    0–28.9%
    0–34.8%
    0–4+2.8%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.6%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.1%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.3%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.3%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.8%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,07–1,63
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.99
    Over 2,551%
    @1.83

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Cruz Azul to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.54

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Cruz Azul to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Nicolás Alejandro Ibáñez to score25%

    Combined probability

    8%

    Fair odds

    13.11

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Diego Fernando Abreu Firenze to score26%
    • Willer Emilio Ditta Pérez to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    40.20

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Cruz Azul49% probability@2.25PinnacleEV+10%
    • 2 · Cruz Azul49% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+8%
    • 2 · Cruz Azul49% probability@2.22BetssonEV+8%
    Bookmaker1 · TijuanaX2 · Cruz Azul
    Betsafe2.983.40
    EV+ 8%
    2.22
    Betsson2.983.40
    EV+ 8%
    2.22
    Nordicbet2.983.40
    EV+ 8%
    2.22
    Pinnacle3.213.36
    EV+ 10%
    2.25

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 03:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.17 → 3.21

    X-3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.48 → 3.36

    2+1 %
    45 %40 %

    2.22 → 2.25

    Over 2,50 %
    55 %50 %

    1.83 → 1.83

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 10/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Tijuana 2Draw 1Cruz Azul 3
    Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    • Club Tijuana are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tijuana
    Cruz Azul
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tijuana (4–1)
    Cruz Azul (7–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 145 passningar, xT 0.45GomezIvan Tona: 131 passningar, xT 0.31TonaJackson Porozo: 99 passningar, xT 0.11PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 97 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 79 passningar, xT 0.61InzunzaPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 67 passningar, xT 0.05OrozcoRamiro Arciga: 44 passningar, xT 0.44ArcigaAngel Zapata: 41 passningar, xT -0.01ZapataYael Padilla: 37 passningar, xT 0.11PadillaAdonis Preciado: 32 passningar, xT -0.09PreciadoGilberto Mora: 31 passningar, xT -0.01Mora
    Cruz Azul
    Jeremy Marquez: 160 passningar, xT 0.99MarquezGonzalo Piovi: 157 passningar, xT 0.24PioviCarlos Rodriguez: 139 passningar, xT 1.19RodriguezErik Lira: 125 passningar, xT 0.29LiraJesus Orozco Chiquete: 122 passningar, xT 0.16ChiqueteWiller Ditta: 121 passningar, xT 0.11DittaAgustin Palavecino: 81 passningar, xT 0.47PalavecinoJose Paradela: 79 passningar, xT 0.57ParadelaOmar Campos: 61 passningar, xT 0.39CamposLuka Romero: 54 passningar, xT 0.1RomeroCarlos Rotondi: 51 passningar, xT 0.21Rotondi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tijuana
    Alejandro Gomez: 145 passningar, xT 0.45GomezIvan Tona: 131 passningar, xT 0.31TonaJackson Porozo: 99 passningar, xT 0.11PorozoAntonio Rodriguez: 97 passningar, xT 0.05RodriguezRafael Inzunza: 79 passningar, xT 0.61InzunzaPablo Nicolás Ortiz Orozco: 67 passningar, xT 0.05OrozcoRamiro Arciga: 44 passningar, xT 0.44ArcigaAngel Zapata: 41 passningar, xT -0.01ZapataYael Padilla: 37 passningar, xT 0.11PadillaAdonis Preciado: 32 passningar, xT -0.09PreciadoGilberto Mora: 31 passningar, xT -0.01Mora
    Cruz Azul
    Jeremy Marquez: 160 passningar, xT 0.99MarquezGonzalo Piovi: 157 passningar, xT 0.24PioviCarlos Rodriguez: 139 passningar, xT 1.19RodriguezErik Lira: 125 passningar, xT 0.29LiraJesus Orozco Chiquete: 122 passningar, xT 0.16ChiqueteWiller Ditta: 121 passningar, xT 0.11DittaAgustin Palavecino: 81 passningar, xT 0.47PalavecinoJose Paradela: 79 passningar, xT 0.57ParadelaOmar Campos: 61 passningar, xT 0.39CamposLuka Romero: 54 passningar, xT 0.1RomeroCarlos Rotondi: 51 passningar, xT 0.21Rotondi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTijuanaCruz Azul
    Points76
    xPoints5.93.9
    xG per match1.42
    xGA per match0.811.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.040.26
    Playing styleTijuanaCruz Azul
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.30.66
    xT per match0.861.7
    xTA per match10.85
    Won balls, offensive half1730
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.35
    Entries into the box per match817
    Entries into the box against148
    Pass completion %0.760.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match294437
    Passes against per match474252
    Switches of play per match26.736
    Long balls per match3535
    Set piecesTijuanaCruz Azul
    xG from free kicks0.010.02
    Corners per match1.76
    Corners against per match6.34
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.060.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.60.28
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.42
    OtherTijuanaCruz Azul
    Throw-in control0.680.73
    The goalkeepersAntonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul)
    Saves77
    Save %88%70%
    xG prevented74%67%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tijuana vs Cruz Azul according to our model?

    The model gives Cruz Azul a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tijuana 23%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.