01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Club América to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez33°26 km/h
Läs på svenska
FC JuárezPossession controlvs
Club AméricaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Club América (48%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.45 (+14 %)
FC Juárez – Club América · Liga MX
1 · FC Juárez 24%X 28%48% Club América · 2
24%
28%
48%
Analysis: FC Juárez – Club América
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Four consecutive losses have left FC Juarez reeling, and now they face a CF America side that hasn’t tasted defeat in six league matches. The numbers paint a picture clearly favoring CF America, who boast a 48% probability of victory in this clash. FC Juarez, with a meager 1.01 expected goals and a glaring 2.0 expected goals against per match, appear vulnerable against CF America's more robust metrics.
FC Juarez have a small head-to-head sample against CF America since 2023, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. However, given CF America’s superior league form and expected goals advantage (1.63 vs. 1.01), this historical tidbit shouldn't sway bettors too far from the here and now. With CF America holding a 1.7 xG per match compared to FC Juarez's paltry 0.5, the attacking edge is decidedly in favor of the visitors.
A likely scoreline of 1-1 (12%) indicates a close contest, but caution should be heeded. CF America’s defensive solidity (0.98 xGA per match) contrasts sharply with Juarez’s defensive woes, suggesting a 0-1 or 1-2 outcome isn't far-fetched. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits at a nearly even split, but the presence of a rain forecast could suppress scoring, potentially skewing the result towards the under.
Interestingly, there’s a value play worth examining: the under 0.5 goals at 15.0 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Rated at a 7% likelihood by the model, it offers a 12% value edge. While such a scoreless draw seems unlikely given the attacking prowess of CF America, the odds present a tantalizing opportunity for the daring bettor seeking substantial returns on an improbable outcome.
FC JuárezForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #16xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.07 · xT -0.01
- Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
- Jose Luis RodriguezCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Club AméricaForm DWDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #9xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Cristian BorjaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
- Isaias ViolanteRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.35
- Dagoberto EspinozaRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: FC Juárez – Club América
Predicted score matrix
Club América →
FC Juárez →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–111.3%
0–29.5%
0–35.2%
0–4+3.0%
1
1–06.8%
1–112.1%
1–29.6%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–03.6%
2–15.9%
2–24.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.2%
3–12.0%
3–21.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,01–1,63
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.18EV+11%
Over 2,549%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Club América to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score36%
- Óscar Haret Ortega Gatica to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.526% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 1.526% probability@4.45BetssonEV+14%reference odds
- Under 1.526% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Juárez | X | 2 · Club América |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.10 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.78 |
| Betsson | 4.10 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.78 |
| Nordicbet | 4.10 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.78 |
| Paddy Power | 3.60 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.85 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.62 (−9%).
1+11 %
27 %22 %
3.70 → 4.10
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.50 → 3.60
2-7 %
52 %47 %
1.92 → 1.78
Over 2,5-9 %
58 %53 %
1.78 → 1.62
Betsson · 31 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFC Juárez 1Draw 1Club América 2
Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Juarez have lost 4 in a row.
- CF America are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Juárez
Club América
FC Juárez (2–13)
Club América (8–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Club América
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Club América
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Juárez | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 10 |
| xPoints | 2.5 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 0.49 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.89 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.54 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | FC Juárez | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 404 |
| Passes against per match | 425 | 285 |
| Switches of play per match | 23 | 45.2 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 44 |
| Set pieces | FC Juárez | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| Corners against per match | 9 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| Other | FC Juárez | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez) | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 11 |
| Save % | 54% | 92% |
| xG prevented | 25% | 92% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Juárez vs Club América according to our model?
The model gives Club América a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 24%, draw 28%, Club América 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.