01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Pumas UNAM to win51%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City21°23 km/h
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Pumas UNAMPossession controlvs
QuerétaroLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Pumas UNAM (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.10 (+4 %)
Pumas UNAM – Querétaro · Liga MX
1 · Pumas UNAM 51%X 26%23% Querétaro · 2
51%
26%
23%
Analysis: Pumas UNAM – Querétaro
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
51% is the number that lights up this fixture, tilting the scales in favour of Pumas UNAM over Queretaro FC. This hint of dominance finds backing in the expected goals tally: 1.67 for Pumas UNAM against a more modest 1.02 for the visitors. It paints a picture of a home side likely to control possession, as their style suggests, while Queretaro FC will probably settle into their low defence, favouring direct counters.
Pumas UNAM boasts a slight edge in the limited head-to-head encounters since 2023, winning two of the four clashes. Yet, Queretaro FC's xPoints advantage at 4.9 against Pumas’ 4.0 suggests they punch above their weight, exploiting opportunities when they arise. But that edge comes with an asterisk, as Queretaro's xGA per match at 1.8 could prove their undoing against a Pumas side with a more robust defensive profile.
Weather isn't on the menu here, so focus narrows to goal likelihood. The model’s 50% estimation for over 2.5 goals, paired with a 52% chance of both teams scoring, hints at a tight contest. Still, the scoreline dance tilts towards nail-biting margins: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (11%) emerge as favourites, both echoing the possibility of a conservative affair in front of goal.
Queretaro FC steps into this matchup with a potential for disruption despite their lower win probability. Their xG per match of 1.6 is testament to an opportunistic attack that could trouble Pumas' back line. Yet, the market value on offer leans towards a lower scoring affair. The under 2.5 goals market provides a calculated value bet at odds of 2.1 with Pinnacle, with the model presenting a 4% edge. This nods to a cagey duel rather than a goal-fest, where Pumas UNAM might just edge out a narrow victory.
Pumas UNAMForm DLLWW
League ranking xG #15xGA #5xT #13xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
- Rodrigo LopezRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
QuerétaroForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #6xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Ali AvilaFxG 0.65 · xT 0.08
- Carlo Adriano García PradesFxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Paulo Victor de Almeida BarbosaLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Pumas UNAM – Querétaro
Predicted score matrix
Querétaro →
Pumas UNAM →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–16.6%
0–23.5%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.0%
1–111.9%
1–25.9%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.5%
2–19.7%
2–24.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.3%
3–15.4%
3–22.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.3%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,67–1,02
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@2.10EV+3%
Over 2,550%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Pumas UNAM to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Alí Ávila Vega to score23%
- Santiago Damián Homenchenko Bianchi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.550% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+4%
- Under 2.550% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+3%
- Under 2.550% probability@2.08BetssonEV+3%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pumas UNAM | X | 2 · Querétaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.34 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPumas UNAM 2Draw 1Querétaro 1
Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pumas UNAM
Querétaro
Pumas UNAM (7–5)
Querétaro (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pumas UNAM
Querétaro
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pumas UNAM
Querétaro
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pumas UNAM | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4 | 4.9 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Pumas UNAM | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 361 | 225 |
| Passes against per match | 374 | 363 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.7 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Pumas UNAM | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 3.3 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 7.9 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.73 | 0.42 |
| Other | Pumas UNAM | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM) | Guillermo Allison (Querétaro) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 8 |
| Save % | 62% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pumas UNAM vs Querétaro according to our model?
The model gives Pumas UNAM a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pumas UNAM 51%, draw 26%, Querétaro 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.