01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Deportivo Toluca to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Liga MXEstadio Corregidora, Querétaro20°9,0 mm9 km/h
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QuerétaroLow block & directvs
Deportivo TolucaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Deportivo Toluca (57%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.20 (+24 %)
Querétaro – Deportivo Toluca · Liga MX
1 · Querétaro 18%X 25%57% Deportivo Toluca · 2
18%
25%
57%
Analysis: Querétaro – Deportivo Toluca
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Fifty-seven percent. That's the model's probability for a Deportivo Toluca win against Queretaro FC, painting a clear picture of the expected outcome. Deportivo Toluca's possession-based style is likely to keep Queretaro's defense busy, especially given Toluca's stronger xGA per match of 0.85 compared to Queretaro's leaky 1.5. History sides with Toluca, too, having triumphed in three of the four head-to-head matchups since 2023, though the sample is small and shouldn't overshadow current form and expected goals.
Queretaro FC opens with a modest 18% chance of victory, which reflects their struggle to translate xPoints into actual outcomes. Despite an edge over Toluca in xPoints, 6.4 to 5.9, this hasn't translated into results on the pitch. Their direct style and lower defensive solidity are likely mismatched against a Toluca side that excels in controlling possession. With expected goals at 0.91 for Queretaro and 1.83 for Toluca, the path to success appears narrow for the hosts.
The weather forecasts 9.0 mm of rain, which could dampen attacking exploits. This, combined with Queretaro’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggests a tight encounter. The model's most likely scorelines of 0-1, 1-1, and 0-2 all hover around a similar probability of 11%, hinting at a contest where under 2.5 goals might be wise. The expected goals and weather conditions reinforce this cautious outlook, nudging the probability of a low-scoring match higher.
It's the value in the under 2.5 goals market that catches the eye. Available at odds of 2.4 with Paddy Power, with the model rating it a 48% chance, there's a 16% edge to exploit. Betsafe offers a similar value at odds of 2.38, providing a solid option for those looking to back a cautious affair. Given the numbers, a 0-1 or 0-2 victory for Deportivo Toluca seems the sensible play, with the under 2.5 goals bet standing out as a sharp angle.
QuerétaroForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #7xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Ali AvilaFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
- Carlo Adriano García PradesFxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Santiago HomenchenkoCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.13
Deportivo TolucaForm LWLWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #5xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Santiago SimónRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
- Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.21
- Federico PereiraCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Querétaro – Deportivo Toluca
Predicted score matrix
Deportivo Toluca →
Querétaro →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–111.5%
0–210.8%
0–36.6%
0–4+4.6%
1
1–05.6%
1–111.1%
1–29.8%
1–36.0%
1–4+4.2%
2
2–02.7%
2–14.9%
2–24.5%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–00.8%
3–11.5%
3–21.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-111%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.0-211%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
0,91–1,83
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.40EV+15%
Over 2,552%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Deportivo Toluca to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Federico Sebastián Viñas Barboza to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Federico Sebastián Viñas Barboza to score25%
- Érick Gabriel Gutiérrez Galaviz to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.524% probability@5.20Paddy PowerEV+24%
- Under 2.548% probability@2.40Paddy PowerEV+16%
- Under 2.548% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+15%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Querétaro | X | 2 · Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.10 | 3.60 | EV+ 1% 1.78 |
| Betsson | 4.10 | 3.60 | EV+ 1% 1.78 |
| Nordicbet | 4.10 | 3.60 | EV+ 1% 1.78 |
| Paddy Power | 3.25 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 1.91 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Deportivo Toluca win since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 1.92 to 1.78 (−7%).
1+15 %
30 %20 %
3.55 → 4.10
X-1 %
31 %21 %
3.65 → 3.60
2-7 %
54 %44 %
1.92 → 1.78
Over 2,5-5 %
65 %55 %
1.60 → 1.52
Betsafe · 21 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesQuerétaro 1Draw 0Deportivo Toluca 3
Goals: 1–10 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Querétaro
Deportivo Toluca
Querétaro (5–4)
Deportivo Toluca (6–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Querétaro
Deportivo Toluca
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Querétaro
Deportivo Toluca
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Querétaro | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPoints | 6.4 | 5.9 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.85 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Querétaro | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 218 | 525 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 248 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.7 | 37.7 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 46 |
| Set pieces | Querétaro | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.5 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| Other | Querétaro | Deportivo Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Guillermo Allison (Querétaro) | Luis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 8 |
| Save % | 75% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Querétaro vs Deportivo Toluca according to our model?
The model gives Deportivo Toluca a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Querétaro 18%, draw 25%, Deportivo Toluca 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.