Liga MXEstadio Corona, Torreón27°26 km/h

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    Santos LagunaSantos LagunaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    CD GuadalajaraCD GuadalajaraPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · CD Guadalajara (60%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.90 (+12 %)

    Santos Laguna – CD Guadalajara · Liga MX

    1 · Santos Laguna 19%X 21%60% CD Guadalajara · 2

    Analysis: Santos Laguna – CD Guadalajara

    Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work

    Club Deportivo Guadalajara's 60% win probability looms large over this Liga MX clash, as they prepare to face a Santos Laguna side reeling from three consecutive defeats. The most probable outcomes, 1-1 and 0-1, each at 11%, suggest a closely fought contest, but Guadalajara's superior form and tactical edge might just tip the balance.

    Santos Laguna's recent struggles are evident, with a three-match losing streak hanging over their heads like a dark cloud. Their style of play, characterized by counter-attacks and crosses, has failed to yield dividends recently. Meanwhile, Guadalajara's possession and high press game have translated into a solid start to the season, earning them four points compared to Santos Laguna's nil. The xG metrics underline Guadalajara's dominance, showing them with a slight edge in both expected goals (1.77 vs. 1.02) and expected points (3.9 vs. 3.1).

    Club Deportivo Guadalajara has also had the upper hand in their head-to-head encounters, albeit with a small sample of four matches since 2023, winning three of them. Their defensive solidity stands out, as evidenced by their lower xGA per match (1.0 compared to Santos Laguna's 1.6), hinting that they can weather Santos Laguna's attacking sorties and strike on the counter themselves.

    The bookmakers may favor a low-scoring affair, with under 1.5 goals offering an enticing value proposition at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates the probability of this outcome at 23%, making it a 12% edge over the implied odds. It's a juicy option for those seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities, though tread carefully given the 53% lean towards over 2.5 goals.

    Ultimately, the numbers suggest a narrow victory for Club Deportivo Guadalajara, with a 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline looking most plausible. While Santos Laguna will hope to break their losing streak, Guadalajara's tactical discipline and current form are likely to see them edge this encounter.

    Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
    Form LWLLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #4xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Eduardo AguirreFxG 0.69 · xT -0.06
    • Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
    • Fran VillalbaFxG 0.13 · xT 0.21
    CD GuadalajaraCD Guadalajara
    Form DLLWD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #1xP/match #12Points #10
    Key players
    • Armando GonzalezFxG 0.27 · xT -0.21
    • Roberto AlvaradoCMxG 0.29 · xT 0.15
    • Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.21

    Match prediction: Santos Laguna – CD Guadalajara

    Predicted score matrix

    CD Guadalajara →
    Santos Laguna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–110.5%
    0–29.6%
    0–35.7%
    0–4+3.8%
    1
    1–05.9%
    1–111.4%
    1–29.8%
    1–35.8%
    1–4+3.8%
    2
    2–03.2%
    2–15.6%
    2–25.0%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–01.1%
    3–11.9%
    3–21.7%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-210%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,02–1,77
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.38EV+12%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • CD Guadalajara to win60%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.27

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • CD Guadalajara to win60%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jordán Carrillo Rodríguez to score28%

    Combined probability

    10%

    Fair odds

    10.32

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jordán Carrillo Rodríguez to score28%
    • Daniel Aguirre Domínguez to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    41.12

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.523% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+12%
    • Under 1.523% probability@4.90BetssonEV+12%
    • Under 1.523% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+12%
    Bookmaker1 · Santos LagunaX2 · CD Guadalajara
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    5.40    		4.201.55
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    5.40    		4.201.55
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    5.40    		4.201.55
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 7%
    5.56    		4.521.52

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    19 %14 %

    5.59 → 5.56

    X0 %
    23 %18 %

    4.54 → 4.52

    20 %
    65 %60 %

    1.51 → 1.52

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Santos Laguna 1Draw 0CD Guadalajara 3
    Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Santos Laguna have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Santos Laguna
    CD Guadalajara
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Santos Laguna (2–7)
    CD Guadalajara (2–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Santos Laguna
    Felipe Sánchez: 171 passningar, xT 0.29SánchezFranco Emanuel Pardo: 121 passningar, xT 0.22PardoMauricio Aimar Cuevas: 112 passningar, xT 0.5CuevasCarlos Acevedo: 101 passningar, xT 0.03AcevedoSalvador Mariscal: 100 passningar, xT 0.01MariscalFran Villalba: 100 passningar, xT 0.45VillalbaEmmanuel Echeverria: 90 passningar, xT 0.3EcheverriaEzequiel Eduardo Bullaude: 60 passningar, xT 0.07BullaudeRamiro Sordo: 49 passningar, xT 0.67SordoAldo Lopez: 47 passningar, xT 0.06LopezCarlos Armando Gruezo Arboleda: 43 passningar, xT 0.08Arboleda
    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 186 passningar, xT 0.78RomoDaniel Aguirre: 168 passningar, xT 0.43AguirreFernando Gonzalez: 162 passningar, xT 0.44GonzalezRoberto Alvarado: 160 passningar, xT 0.26AlvaradoJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62CastilloRichard Ledezma: 111 passningar, xT 0.6LedezmaBrian Gutiérrez: 108 passningar, xT 0.59GutiérrezJordan Carrillo: 106 passningar, xT 0.13CarrilloBryan Gonzalez: 102 passningar, xT 0.49GonzalezRaul Rangel: 85 passningar, xT 0.06RangelDiego Campillo: 55 passningar, xT 0.08Campillo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Santos Laguna
    Felipe Sánchez: 171 passningar, xT 0.29SánchezFranco Emanuel Pardo: 121 passningar, xT 0.22PardoMauricio Aimar Cuevas: 112 passningar, xT 0.5CuevasCarlos Acevedo: 101 passningar, xT 0.03AcevedoSalvador Mariscal: 100 passningar, xT 0.01MariscalFran Villalba: 100 passningar, xT 0.45VillalbaEmmanuel Echeverria: 90 passningar, xT 0.3EcheverriaEzequiel Eduardo Bullaude: 60 passningar, xT 0.07BullaudeRamiro Sordo: 49 passningar, xT 0.67SordoAldo Lopez: 47 passningar, xT 0.06LopezCarlos Armando Gruezo Arboleda: 43 passningar, xT 0.08Arboleda
    CD Guadalajara
    Luis Romo: 186 passningar, xT 0.78RomoDaniel Aguirre: 168 passningar, xT 0.43AguirreFernando Gonzalez: 162 passningar, xT 0.44GonzalezRoberto Alvarado: 160 passningar, xT 0.26AlvaradoJose Castillo: 125 passningar, xT 0.62CastilloRichard Ledezma: 111 passningar, xT 0.6LedezmaBrian Gutiérrez: 108 passningar, xT 0.59GutiérrezJordan Carrillo: 106 passningar, xT 0.13CarrilloBryan Gonzalez: 102 passningar, xT 0.49GonzalezRaul Rangel: 85 passningar, xT 0.06RangelDiego Campillo: 55 passningar, xT 0.08Campillo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSantos LagunaCD Guadalajara
    Points04
    xPoints3.13.9
    xG per match1.41.5
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.3
    Playing styleSantos LagunaCD Guadalajara
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.490.69
    xT per match1.32.1
    xTA per match10.46
    Won balls, offensive half2830
    Pressing intensity0.250.22
    Pressing efficiency0.260.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.22
    Entries into the box per match1528
    Entries into the box against157
    Pass completion %0.760.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.77
    Passes per match383529
    Passes against per match405314
    Switches of play per match3731
    Long balls per match4233
    Set piecesSantos LagunaCD Guadalajara
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match6.711.9
    Corners against per match4.71.7
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.080.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.57
    First touch, defensive corners %0.430.6
    OtherSantos LagunaCD Guadalajara
    Throw-in control0.620.81
    The goalkeepersCarlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna)Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara)
    Saves179
    Save %71%75%
    xG prevented41%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Santos Laguna vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?

    The model gives CD Guadalajara a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Santos Laguna 19%, draw 21%, CD Guadalajara 60%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.