01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tigres UANL to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Liga MXEstadio Universitario, Monterrey21°4,4 mm19 km/h
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Tigres UANLPossession controlvs
AtlanteLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Tigres UANL (71%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Tigres UANL – Atlante · Liga MX
1 · Tigres UANL 71%X 17%12% Atlante · 2
71%
17%
12%
Analysis: Tigres UANL – Atlante
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
71% is a compelling figure, especially when it's the probability of a Tigres UANL victory against Atlante. The numbers don't just favor Tigres; they scream their superiority. With an expected goals tally of 2.23 for Tigres and a mere 0.82 for Atlante, it's clear where the attacking threat lies. But let's not stop there. Tigres' home ground has historically been a fortress, with a 64% win record over 42 matches. It's no wonder the bookmakers are leaning heavily towards a home win.
Tigres UANL might be trailing Atlante in the actual points tally with just 1 to Atlante's 5, but they lead in expected metrics with 5.4 against Atlante's 5.2. Their ability to create and limit chances is reflected in their superior expected goals and expected goals against numbers. Despite the wet weather forecast, which usually spells fewer goals, the model still predicts a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals. This suggests that Tigres' chance creation won't be too hampered by the rain. Their possession-based style should dominate Atlante's low-block defense.
Atlante should not be entirely written off, though. Their start to the season has been solid, reflected in their better points tally. However, their expected goals per match of 1.0 against an expected goals against of 1.8 suggests that they've been riding their luck. This balance is likely to tip against them in the face of Tigres’ relentless pressure.
When it comes to betting, the odds for a Tigres UANL win at 1.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 3% edge according to the model. This is a sharp angle for those looking to back the home side. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0 bolster the argument for a Tigres victory, with a 2-0 win feeling particularly probable given both the expected goals and the defensive frailties of Atlante. So, while the rain may dampen some spirits, Tigres’ win probability remains high and is certainly where the smart money should go.
Tigres UANLForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #8xP/match #10Points #16
Key players
- Fernando GorriaranCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.72 · xT 0.23
- Diego LainezRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
AtlanteForm LDWD
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #14xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Eugenio PizzutoRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
- Jhojan JulioFxG 0.33 · xT 0.22
- Luis Fernando Puente PradoFxG 0.24 · xT -0.10
Match prediction: Tigres UANL – Atlante
Predicted score matrix
Atlante →
Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–13.6%
0–21.6%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–010.2%
1–18.9%
1–23.6%
1–31.0%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–011.7%
2–19.7%
2–24.0%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–08.7%
3–17.2%
3–23.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–08.2%
4+–16.8%
4+–22.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,23–0,82
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.25
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tigres UANL to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score32%
- Juan Nicolás Carrera Zarzar to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.43BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.43BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Tigres UANL71% probability@1.43NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tigres UANL | X | 2 · Atlante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
| Betsson | EV+ 2% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.43 | 4.15 | 6.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Atlante win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 8.80 to 6.80 (−23%).
1+5 %
71 %61 %
1.36 → 1.43
X-3 %
26 %16 %
4.30 → 4.15
2-23 %
18 %8 %
8.80 → 6.80
Over 2,5+5 %
63 %53 %
1.60 → 1.68
Betsson · 25 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Tigres UANL win 64% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tigres UANL
Atlante
Tigres UANL (6–10)
Atlante (5–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tigres UANL
Atlante
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tigres UANL
Atlante
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tigres UANL | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 5 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Tigres UANL | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 336 | 212 |
| Passes against per match | 307 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.8 | 15.4 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Tigres UANL | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 9.8 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 8.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| Other | Tigres UANL | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL) | Oscar Jimenez (Atlante) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 19 |
| Save % | 50% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 22% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tigres UANL vs Atlante according to our model?
The model gives Tigres UANL a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tigres UANL 71%, draw 17%, Atlante 12%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.