Chaves vs Academica: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 28 August 202623°0,3 mm21 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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ChavesPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Chaves (41%)

AcademicaPossession control

1 · Chaves 41%X 28%30% Academica · 2

41%

28%

30%

Chaves

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #8xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Roberto Porfírio Maximiano RodrigoFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
Bruno RodriguesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Rui Filipe Caetano MouraRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.22

Academica

League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Juan MunozFxG 0.4 · xT 0.09
Dieu-Merci Ndembo-MichelFxG 0.61 · xT 0.03
Jordan Van Der GaagRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Chaves – Academica

Predicted score matrix

Academica →

Chaves →

0–08.2%

0–18.8%

0–25.3%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.5%

1–113.0%

1–27.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.5%

2–18.7%

2–25.1%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.4%

3–14.0%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,38–1,16

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Chaves – Academica

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Fifty-five points on the board for Chaves, virtually neck and neck with Academica's fifty, yet an xPoints tally of 51.8 hints at hidden promise for the home side, outshining their actual haul. The model backs this up with a 41% shot at victory for Chaves compared to Academica’s 30%. It’s a subtle imbalance, yet telling in a matchup where the slightest edge could sway the outcome. Chaves’ possession-based play lends them an air of control, but with Academica mirroring that style, expect a chess match rather than a fireworks display.

Chaves might be sitting at an expected goals (xG) rate of 1.5, but their defence is the talking point, maintaining a sturdier xGA of 1.1 compared to Academica's 1.3. This defensive edge slightly tempers the prospect of a goal fest, nudging the pendulum towards a tight affair. Meanwhile, the bookmakers' over 2.5 goals probability sits at 47%, offering a lean towards a cautious under for those inclined.

Academica’s slight advantage in points is intriguing, but it masks a mild underperformance when juxtaposed with their possession-driven strategy. With an xG of 1.6 and expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3, they might have the upper hand offensively, yet the defensive cracks are palpable. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is pegged at 52%, aligning with the most probable scoreline of 1-1, a result that would suit the narrative of evenly matched possession and prowess.

The model's nod towards Chaves winning 1-0 at 11% suggests a slender triumph could be their calling card. This scenario, combined with a rigorously orchestrated defensive game plan, could well be the narrative arc. Sportingbet offers odds on a Chaves win that could hold value for the right punter, with their odds highlighting the subtle favor the statistics show. In a game walking the tightrope of balance, the sharpest wager might reside in the belief that Chaves’ home advantage and defensive resilience tip the scales just enough to edge it 1-0.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chaves

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Chaves (42–40)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chaves

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chaves

The teams in numbers

Performance	Chaves	Academica
Points	45	50
xPoints	51.8	50.6
xG per match	1.5	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.21

Playing style	Chaves	Academica
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.47
xT per match	0.9	0.97
xTA per match	0.74	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.33
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	339	316
Passes against per match	294	311
Switches of play per match	25.8	27.1
Long balls per match	32	32

Set pieces	Chaves	Academica
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.1
Corners per match	4.8	4.9
Corners against per match	4.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.06	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.58

Other	Chaves	Academica
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Josimar José Évora Dias (Chaves)	Academica
Saves	44	–
Save %	67%	–
xG prevented	36%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chaves vs Academica according to our model?

The model gives Chaves a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chaves 41%, draw 28%, Academica 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.