Vizela vs União de Leiria: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 29 August 202622°0,4 mm19 km/h

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VizelaPossession control

1–0

União de LeiriaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Vizela (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.90 (+6 %)

1 · Vizela 39%X 30%32% União de Leiria · 2

39%

30%

32%

Analysis: Vizela – União de Leiria

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Vizela's recent supremacy over Uniao Desportiva Leiria with three wins and a draw in their last four head-to-heads since 2023, might suggest an edge, but it's a small sample and the numbers tell a more balanced story. Vizela are slight favourites at 39% to win, yet Uniao Desportiva Leiria aren't far behind at 32%, and they're toppling Vizela both on points and expected points. The 1-1 scoreline at 13% speaks to the closeness of this clash.

Vizela may come into the match with a style built on possession control, but so do Uniao Desportiva Leiria, making it a tactical chess match rather than an open goal fest. The expected goals (xG) of 1.33 for Vizela and 1.12 for Uniao Desportiva Leiria suggest this could be a cagier affair than some might expect. The over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 44% further supports a low-scoring scenario.

Uniao Desportiva Leiria edges Vizela in the xPoints (50.6 to 45.4) and xG per match (1.6 to 1.3), but Vizela’s better xGA per match at 1.2 hints they might be slightly more defensively sound. With both sides preferring to control the game, this match has all the writings of a tightly contested encounter. Expect a tactical setup where neither side gives much away, which could lead to a scoreline of 1-0 or even the model's favourite 1-1.

The sharpest angle here is the value on under 2.5 goals, with Pinnacle offering odds of 1.862. Given the model rates the probability of under 2.5 goals at 56%, there's a 4% edge, which is significant in betting terms. With both teams likely to focus on possession, and the historical head-to-head favouring a narrow Vizela victory or a draw, a low-scoring match seems the most likely outcome.

Vizela

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #7xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Mohamed Aiman Moukhliss AgmirCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Manuel Garrido ÁlvarezFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
Thio Natanaël Amos NtollaLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15

União de Leiria

Form DWLLD

League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Juan MunozFxG 0.40 · xT 0.09
Dieu-Merci Ndembo-MichelFxG 0.61 · xT 0.03
Jordan Van Der GaagRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.17

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vizela 39% · Draw 30% · União de Leiria 32%

Match prediction: Vizela – União de Leiria

Predicted score matrix

União de Leiria →

Vizela →

0–09.0%

0–19.3%

0–25.4%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.2%

1–27.2%

1–32.7%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.7%

2–18.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.4%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,33–1,12

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.90EV+6%

Over 2,544%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vizela or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vizela or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Yann Trécy Kitala to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Yann Trécy Kitala to score29%
Miguel Cristóvão Pires to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vizela	X	2 · União de Leiria
Pinnacle	2.45	3.35	2.93

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:53

Odds movement

1-1 %

41 %36 %

2.48 → 2.45

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.35

2+5 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.93

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.93 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Vizela 3Draw 1União de Leiria 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vizela

União de Leiria

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Vizela (38–40)

União de Leiria (51–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vizela

União de Leiria

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vizela

União de Leiria

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vizela	União de Leiria
Points	48	50
xPoints	45.4	50.6
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Vizela	União de Leiria
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.47
xT per match	0.91	0.97
xTA per match	0.89	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.33
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	333	316
Passes against per match	256	311
Switches of play per match	24.8	27.1
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Vizela	União de Leiria
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.1
Corners per match	5.1	4.9
Corners against per match	4.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.58

Other	Vizela	União de Leiria
Throw-in control	0.69	0.72

The goalkeepers	Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)	Joao Bravim (União de Leiria)
Saves	91	82
Save %	72%	69%
xG prevented	56%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vizela

Fixtures, form & tips

União de Leiria

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vizela vs União de Leiria according to our model?

The model gives Vizela a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vizela 39%, draw 30%, União de Leiria 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.