Vizela vs União de Leiria: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 29 August 202622°17 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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VizelaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Vizela (39%)

União de LeiriaPossession control

1 · Vizela 39%X 30%32% União de Leiria · 2

39%

30%

32%

Vizela

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #7xP/match #10Points #6

Key players

Mohamed Aiman Moukhliss AgmirCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Manuel Garrido ÁlvarezFxG 0.36 · xT 0
Thio Natanaël Amos NtollaLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15

União de Leiria

Form DWLLD

League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Juan MunozFxG 0.4 · xT 0.09
Dieu-Merci Ndembo-MichelFxG 0.61 · xT 0.03
Jordan Van Der GaagRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Vizela – União de Leiria

Predicted score matrix

União de Leiria →

Vizela →

0–09.0%

0–19.3%

0–25.4%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.2%

1–27.2%

1–32.7%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.7%

2–18.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.4%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,33–1,12

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.85EV+3%

Over 2,544%

@1.93

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Vizela	X	2 · União de Leiria
Pinnacle	2.48	3.30	2.80

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Vizela – União de Leiria

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A 39% chance for Vizela, and yet, they haven’t tasted defeat against Uniao Desportiva Leiria since 2023. The numbers tell a compelling tale: three wins and a draw in their last four meetings. This historical edge gives Vizela a psychological upper hand, despite the close odds and a slightly stronger points tally for Uniao Desportiva Leiria.

Vizela, boasting a tidy possession control style, should find comfort on their own turf. Their expected goals of 1.33 slightly trump Uniao Desportiva Leiria's 1.12, suggesting a narrow offensive edge. Still, with both sides emphasizing possession, the pitch could become a chessboard where tactical patience is paramount. The most likely scoreline leans toward a 1-1 draw (13%), though the 1-0 (11%) nod towards Vizela reveals a potential path to victory.

Uniao Desportiva Leiria might hold the edge in xPoints and xG per match, but their defensive vulnerabilities (xGA of 1.3 compared to Vizela’s 1.2) could be their undoing. They are also slightly less effective in head-to-head duels, which might tip the scales in Vizela's favor. The 50% chance of both teams finding the net underscores the tightrope they both walk, but a low-scoring affair seems more probable given the under 2.5 goals market is only at 44%.

The sharpest angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market. Pinnacle offers odds at 1.854, with a model rating that pegs it at a 56% probability—giving punters a 3% edge. In a match where tactics and possession might mute goal-scoring fireworks, backing the under presents itself as a shrewd move. Expect a cagey affair, with a slight nod toward a Vizela victory, but the under is where the discerning bettor might find value.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Vizela 3Draw 1União de Leiria 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vizela

União de Leiria

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Vizela (38–40)

União de Leiria (51–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vizela

União de Leiria

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vizela

União de Leiria

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vizela	União de Leiria
Points	48	50
xPoints	45.4	50.6
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Vizela	União de Leiria
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.47
xT per match	0.91	0.97
xTA per match	0.89	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.33
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	333	316
Passes against per match	256	311
Switches of play per match	24.8	27.1
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Vizela	União de Leiria
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.1
Corners per match	5.1	4.9
Corners against per match	4.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.58

Other	Vizela	União de Leiria
Throw-in control	0.69	0.72

The goalkeepers	Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)	Joao Bravim (União de Leiria)
Saves	91	82
Save %	72%	69%
xG prevented	56%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vizela vs União de Leiria according to our model?

The model gives Vizela a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vizela 39%, draw 30%, União de Leiria 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.