01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lusitânia to win50%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Liga Portugal 222°19 km/h
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LusitâniaPossession control2–0
Porto BPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Lusitânia (50%)
Lusitânia vs Porto B · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Lusitânia 50%X 27%24% Porto B · 2
50%
27%
24%
Analysis: Lusitânia – Porto B
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Fifty percent — that’s the model's belief in a home win for Guarda against Porto II in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup. Not only does the model favour a Guarda victory, but there’s a mouth-watering betting edge available with Pinnacle, pricing them at 2.45. This isn’t just some marginal value; it’s a hefty 22% edge that astute punters should be eyeing. Despite Porto II’s three straight wins, the numbers suggest an upset may well be on the cards.
Guarda’s expected goals of 1.50 dwarfs Porto II’s 0.93, hinting at a likely domination in quality chances. The most probable scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 reinforce the narrative of Guarda leveraging their home advantage. While their head-to-head record is a small sample, with only one match played since 2023, where Guarda emerged victorious, it weighs in less than their current form and underlying metrics do.
Porto II may have a superior points tally of 50 to Guarda’s 38, but when you peel back the layers, xPoints tell a tighter story: Porto II edges Guarda by a mere 1.1 points, reflective of more squandered opportunities. Their xGA per match at 1.6 also suggests defensive frailties that Guarda, with their possession-based style, could exploit. Both teams relish control, so expect a strategic battle for the ball, limiting the open play that typically results in goal-fests.
For those pondering total goals, the under 2.5 at odds of 1.806 with Pinnacle presents a slender 1% edge, but combined with the weather forecast’s potential influence, it becomes more appealing. With a 44% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the market seems to favour a cagey encounter.
In the final analysis, the sharpest angle here is Guarda's win with Pinnacle. Given the draw probability at 27%, it’s a gamble worth taking, pairing a solid statistical foundation with an enticing value proposition.
LusitâniaForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #15xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Tiago Daniel Rodrigues DiasLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Dylan João Raymond CollardCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
- João Pedro Pereira SilvaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
Porto BForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #18xGA #17xT #18xP/match #18Points #5
Key players
- Dinis Andrade RodriguesRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Gonçalo Santos SousaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
- Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lusitânia 50% · Draw 27% · Porto B 24%
Match prediction: Lusitânia – Porto B
Predicted score matrix
Porto B →
Lusitânia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–17.9%
0–23.8%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.8%
1–112.6%
1–25.8%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.2%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.9%
3–14.6%
3–22.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,50–0,93
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.81EV+2%
Over 2,544%
@2.03
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lusitânia to win50%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Miguel Angelo Marques Pinto Pereira to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Miguel Angelo Marques Pinto Pereira to score20%
- Fábio Miguel Jesus Carvalho to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lusitânia50% probability@2.48PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
- Under 2.556% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lusitânia | X | 2 · Porto B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 23% 2.48 | 3.21 | 3.00 |
Odds updated 10 Aug, 06:08
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Porto B win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 3.34 to 3.00 (−10%).
1+14 %
43 %38 %
2.18 → 2.48
X-2 %
32 %27 %
3.26 → 3.21
2-10 %
33 %28 %
3.34 → 3.00
Over 2,5-2 %
49 %44 %
2.08 → 2.03
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 10/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLusitânia 1Draw 0Porto B 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Porto II come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lusitânia
Porto B
Lusitânia (35–41)
Porto B (40–41)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lusitânia
Porto B
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lusitânia
Porto B
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lusitânia | Porto B |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38 | 50 |
| xPoints | 35.4 | 36.5 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Lusitânia | Porto B |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 267 | 296 |
| Passes against per match | 309 | 336 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.2 | 21.9 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Lusitânia | Porto B |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.64 |
| Other | Lusitânia | Porto B |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Vitor Hugo Batista Araujo de Mendonca (Lusitânia) | Goncalo Ribeiro (Porto B) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 79 | 48 |
| Save % | 70% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lusitânia vs Porto B according to our model?
The model gives Lusitânia a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lusitânia 50%, draw 27%, Porto B 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.