Feirense vs Felgueiras: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 29 August 202622°15 km/h

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FeirenseCounter-attacks & crosses

0–0

FelgueirasPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Felgueiras (34%)

1 · Feirense 33%X 33%34% Felgueiras · 2

33%

34%

Analysis: Feirense – Felgueiras

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The tension in this matchup between Feirense and Felgueiras 1932 is almost palpable, with model probabilities tipping slightly in favor of Felgueiras 1932 at 34%. This slim lead in the projections hints at the competitive nature of these two sides. The head-to-head record since 2023 shows an even split with each team claiming a win and two draws, but with only four games played, it’s a small sample size that won’t weigh as heavily as current form and expected goals.

Feirense comes into this clash with a slight advantage in terms of points and expected points, 46 and 51.6 respectively, compared to Felgueiras 1932's 41 and 49.1. However, the subtleties of playing style could tilt the scales. Feirense’s focus on counter-attacks and crosses might find it hard to breach Felgueiras 1932’s possession-based control, which could stifle their attacking endeavours.

Statistically, the battle of expected goals per match leans towards Felgueiras 1932 at 1.5 against Feirense's 1.2, with Felgueiras 1932 also edging in quick transitions, boasting an xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball of 0.24 to Feirense’s 0.21. This suggests Felgueiras 1932 might have the upper hand in creating high-quality chances under pressure, which could be pivotal in a tightly contested match.

The most likely outcomes, according to the models, are a 1-1 draw (14%), a 1-0 victory for either side (13%), or a goalless draw (12%). The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at just 37%, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair. With both teams expected to score at 44%, a 1-1 draw seems the prudent call.

The sharpest betting angle lies with Felgueiras 1932. Despite the even odds in the model, some bookmakers offer Felgueiras 1932 to win at attractive odds of 3.10. With their slight edge in xG and playing style, this represents a value (EV+) bet for those willing to take a calculated risk.

Feirense

Form LDWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #12xP/match #3Points #8

Key players

Desmond Amoh NketiaFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
Leandro AntunesFxG 0.33 · xT 0.06
Tiago RibeiroRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11

Felgueiras

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #1xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Lucas da Costa DuarteFxG 0.53 · xT 0.04
Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.51 · xT 0.11
Pedro RosasLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.18

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Feirense 33% · Draw 33% · Felgueiras 34%

Match prediction: Feirense – Felgueiras

Predicted score matrix

Felgueiras →

Feirense →

0–011.9%

0–111.2%

0–25.8%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.6%

1–013.0%

1–113.8%

1–26.7%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–07.7%

2–17.7%

2–23.9%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.0%

3–13.0%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,15–1,00

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

–

Over 2,537%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Felgueiras or draw (X2)61%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Felgueiras or draw (X2)61%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Lucas da Costa Duarte to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals37%
João Fernandes Oliveira to score20%
Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Feirense	X	2 · Felgueiras
Pinnacle	2.78	2.96	2.86

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:09

Odds movement

1+13 %

39 %34 %

2.45 → 2.78

X-2 %

34 %29 %

3.03 → 2.96

2-7 %

34 %29 %

3.07 → 2.86

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Feirense 1Draw 2Felgueiras 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Feirense

Felgueiras

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Feirense (37–40)

Felgueiras (32–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Feirense

Felgueiras

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Feirense

Felgueiras

The teams in numbers

Performance	Feirense	Felgueiras
Points	46	41
xPoints	51.6	49.1
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.16

Playing style	Feirense	Felgueiras
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.55	0.56
xT per match	0.79	1
xTA per match	0.76	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	24	32
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.42	0.37
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.66	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.66
Passes per match	207	265
Passes against per match	267	272
Switches of play per match	25.5	19.8
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	Feirense	Felgueiras
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.13
Corners per match	5.6	5.1
Corners against per match	5	4.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.53

Other	Feirense	Felgueiras
Throw-in control	0.65	0.66

The goalkeepers	Francisco Meira Meixedo (Feirense)	Felipe Mateus Scheibig (Felgueiras)
Saves	41	37
Save %	63%	74%
xG prevented	43%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Feirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Felgueiras

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Feirense vs Felgueiras according to our model?

The model gives Felgueiras a 34% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feirense 33%, draw 33%, Felgueiras 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.