Penafiel vs Portimonense: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 28 August 202622°18 km/h

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PenafielPossession control

0–1

PortimonensePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Penafiel (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Portimonense @ 4.10 (+27 %)

1 · Penafiel 40%X 29%31% Portimonense · 2

40%

29%

31%

Analysis: Penafiel – Portimonense

Marcus Johansson · 7 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Forty-one points to Penafiel's name against Portimonense SC's 37 might suggest a modest edge, but it's the underlying figures that paint a fuller picture. The expected goals and points metrics clearly favour Penafiel, with a tangible xPoints advantage of 49.0 to 40.7. However, the betting value lies in the gaps between perception and numbers, and there are a few intriguing opportunities for the value hunter.

Penafiel's penchant for controlling possession meets Portimonense SC’s similar style in what might be a battle for midfield dominance rather than goalmouth action. The expected goals tally leans towards a tighter affair, with Penafiel at 1.36 and Portimonense SC trailing at 1.03. The odds of a low-scoring game shine through, with a mere 43% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams finding the net. The match is more likely to end in a narrow margin or stalemate than a goal fest, a sentiment echoed by the model's top scoreline predictions of 1-1 or 1-0.

Penafiel’s form is slightly better on paper, but head-to-head numbers since 2023, albeit from a small sample, tilt towards Portimonense SC with two wins out of three encounters. Yet, past meetings should not outweigh the current form and expected goals, which clearly favour the hosts. Still, with Pinnacle offering 4.07 for an away win, there's a 26% edge based on the model’s 31% probability, presenting an enticing, if risky, shot for the adventurous bettor.

For the more conservative, the under 2.5 goals market looks appetizing, with Pinnacle’s odds of 1.892 providing a 9% edge. This aligns neatly with the tactical outlook of both teams, suggesting a cagey encounter. Whether Penafiel capitalizes on their expected points advantage or Portimonense SC defies model predictions, the smart money might just favour a tight, low-scoring affair.

Penafiel

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #13xP/match #7Points #12

Key players

Joseph Thibaut SeryFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
Raúl Toni Alcaina FenollosaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Portimonense

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #17xP/match #15Points #17

Key players

Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
Thauan LaraFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.15

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Penafiel 40% · Draw 29% · Portimonense 31%

Match prediction: Penafiel – Portimonense

Predicted score matrix

Portimonense →

Penafiel →

0–09.6%

0–19.1%

0–24.9%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.2%

1–113.2%

1–26.6%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.5%

2–18.7%

2–24.5%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.8%

3–13.9%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,36–1,03

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.91EV+10%

Over 2,543%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Penafiel or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Penafiel or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals57%
José Manuel Albergaria Costa Leite to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals43%
José Manuel Albergaria Costa Leite to score28%
João Diogo Pancadas Casimiro to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Portimonense31% probability@4.10PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.62PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Penafiel	X	2 · Portimonense
Pinnacle	1.88	EV+ 4% 3.62	EV+ 27% 4.10

Odds updated 8 Aug, 02:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Penafiel win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.12 to 1.88 (−11%).

1-11 %

52 %42 %

2.12 → 1.88

X+6 %

32 %22 %

3.42 → 3.62

2+23 %

31 %21 %

3.33 → 4.10

Over 2,5-3 %

54 %44 %

1.98 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Penafiel 1Draw 0Portimonense 2

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Penafiel

Portimonense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Penafiel (37–39)

Portimonense (36–47)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Penafiel

Portimonense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Penafiel

Portimonense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Penafiel	Portimonense
Points	41	37
xPoints	49	40.7
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.18

Playing style	Penafiel	Portimonense
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.4	0.46
xT per match	0.75	0.7
xTA per match	1	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.37
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.68
Passes per match	270	266
Passes against per match	324	268
Switches of play per match	23.1	23.7
Long balls per match	33	31

Set pieces	Penafiel	Portimonense
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.11
Corners per match	4.4	4.8
Corners against per match	5	5.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.53

Other	Penafiel	Portimonense
Throw-in control	0.68	0.71

The goalkeepers	Joan Femenías del Salto (Penafiel)	Maycon Cleiton (Portimonense)
Saves	113	47
Save %	77%	71%
xG prevented	63%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Penafiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Portimonense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Penafiel vs Portimonense according to our model?

The model gives Penafiel a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 40%, draw 29%, Portimonense 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.