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PenafielPossession control
PortimonensePossession controlPenafiel – Portimonense · Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel- Joseph Thibaut SeryFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
- Raúl Toni Alcaina FenollosaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
- Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Portimonense- Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.58 · xT 0
- Thauan LaraFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Penafiel – Portimonense
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.557% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+4%
- 2 · Portimonense31% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+3%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Penafiel | X | 2 · Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.42 | EV+ 3% 3.33 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Penafiel – Portimonense
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
Forty-one points separate Penafiel from any notion of the relegation zone, and yet they find themselves embroiled in the mid-table skirmish with Portimonense SC, who linger just four points behind. The model gives Penafiel a 40% chance of victory, leaning towards the home side, but dig deeper and you'll find the tides of recent history favoring their opponents. Portimonense SC have walked away victorious in two of their three encounters since 2023 — a subtle reminder that Penafiel's fortress has been breached before.
Penafiel's points tally of 41 edges past Portimonense's 37, but when it comes to expected points, Penafiel's 49.0 dwarfs Portimonense's 40.7, highlighting a potential underperformance in the visitors' results. It paints a picture of a Penafiel side that, on paper, should have been more dominant. Yet, Portimonense SC's slightly superior xG of 1.3 per match suggests they have the sharper edge in front of goal. However, it's their defensive frailties, with an xGA of 1.6, that might see them undone against a Penafiel side more secure at 1.3 xGA.
Portimonense SC's style mirrors that of their hosts, both opting for control in possession. This could lead to a midfield battle with few clear-cut chances, reflected in the model's assessment of a 43% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams finding the net. The most likely scorelines hover around the low-scoring spectrum, with 1-1 and 1-0 appearing prominently at 13% and 12% respectively.
Penafiel could very well eke out a 1-0 win, exploiting their marginal defensive solidity. Yet, the sharpest betting angle lies in the under 2.5 market. Pinnacle's odds of 1.813 offer a 4% edge, with the model rating the under at a solid 57% likelihood. It's a market that could provide value for the discerning punter, capturing the essence of a match likely to be more about attrition than an exhibition.
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesHead-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Penafiel | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41 | 37 |
| xPoints | 49 | 40.7 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Penafiel | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 270 | 266 |
| Passes against per match | 324 | 268 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.1 | 23.7 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Penafiel | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.53 |
| Other | Penafiel | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Joan Femenías del Salto (Penafiel) | Maycon Cleiton (Portimonense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 113 | 47 |
| Save % | 77% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Penafiel vs Portimonense according to our model?
The model gives Penafiel a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 40%, draw 29%, Portimonense 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.