Liga Portugal 224°19 km/h

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    Benfica BBenfica BPossession & high press
    1–0
    LeixõesLeixõesPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.05 (+1 %)

    Benfica B vs Leixões · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Benfica B 42%X 27%31% Leixões · 2

    Analysis: Benfica B – Leixões

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Forty-two percent; that's the probability the model assigns to Benfica II snatching a win against Leixoes. While these numbers hint at a slight edge for the home side, this matchup is anything but a foregone conclusion. In a league where margins are razor-thin, the 1.54 expected goals for Benfica II suggests a narrow advantage, but Leixoes, who have found the net in 13 consecutive league matches, won't be easy to keep at bay.

    Benfica II, with their high-pressing and possession-focused style, will look to disrupt Leixoes' possession control approach. Yet, it's the defensive vulnerabilities that might dictate the outcome here. Both sides share identical numbers in expected goals against (xGA) at 1.4 per match, indicating that defensive frailties could open up opportunities for both teams to score. This parity in xGA not only supports the model's 54% chance for both teams to score but also hints at a competitive, if not chaotic, encounter.

    Four matches head-to-head since 2023 is a slim sample and suggests restraint in drawing sweeping conclusions from their outcomes. Benfica II's slight historical edge of 1 win and 2 draws should be considered with caution as current form and expected goals carry more weight. Benfica II's xPoints edge, despite trailing in actual points, underscores a potential for underperformance correction.

    Weather isn't an issue, so goals might flow. The over 2.5 goals probability at 51% aligns with this. Yet, the most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 suggest a tight contest. With Benfica II favored, and a nod to Leixoes' scoring streak, a 2-1 win for Benfica II seems plausible. But for those with a betting inclination, the real value lies elsewhere. The draw at 27% offers intriguing odds at 3.30 with Betway, a price that could tempt given the close nature of this contest.

    Benfica BBenfica B
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #10xP/match #12Points #10
    Key players
    • Francisco Carvalho Souza e SilvaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.04
    • Diogo PriosteCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
    • Jelani Trevisan DumasFxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
    LeixõesLeixões
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #11xP/match #13Points #7
    Key players
    • José Manuel Bica ReisFxG 0.41 · xT 0.04
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaFxG 0.35 · xT 0.07
    • Paulo Sérgio MotaRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Benfica B 42% · Draw 27% · Leixões 31%

    Match prediction: Benfica B – Leixões

    Predicted score matrix

    Leixões →
    Benfica B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–17.5%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.0%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–14.7%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,17
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.05EV+1%
    Over 2,551%
    @1.79

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.84

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Anísio Cláudio Fernandes Reis Cabral to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Anísio Cláudio Fernandes Reis Cabral to score27%
    • Matheus de Mello Costa to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.549% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    • X · Draw27% probability@3.72PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Benfica BX2 · Leixões
    Pinnacle2.16
    EV+ 1%
    3.72    		3.16

    Odds updated 10 Aug, 10:08

    Odds movement

    10 %
    46 %41 %

    2.17 → 2.16

    X+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.61 → 3.72

    2+3 %
    33 %28 %

    3.06 → 3.16

    Over 2,5+1 %
    56 %51 %

    1.77 → 1.79

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 10/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Benfica B 1Draw 2Leixões 1
    Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Leixoes have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Benfica B
    Leixões
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Benfica B (43–44)
    Leixões (44–54)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Benfica B
    Rui Pedro Ferreira da Silva: 232 passningar, xT 0.47SilvaDiogo Prioste: 213 passningar, xT 0.21PriosteMartim Maria Ferreira: 199 passningar, xT 0.25FerreiraGoncalo Oliveira: 168 passningar, xT 0.24OliveiraNuno Felix: 121 passningar, xT 0.18FelixDaniel Armando Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui: 116 passningar, xT 0.22BanjaquiTiago Parente: 113 passningar, xT 0.3ParenteGonçalo Carvalho Moreira: 106 passningar, xT 0.35MoreiraJoao Rego: 104 passningar, xT -0.14RegoJoão Tomás de Sousa Moreira Cruz: 104 passningar, xT 0.57CruzMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 104 passningar, xT 0.1Figueiredo
    Leixões
    Amadu Balde: 225 passningar, xT 0.26BaldeMatheus de Mello Costa: 211 passningar, xT 0.18CostaLourenco Henriques: 207 passningar, xT 0.42HenriquesSerif Nhaga: 131 passningar, xT 0.94NhagaMiguel Ferreira de Sousa: 103 passningar, xT 0.13SousaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 101 passningar, xT 0.08AraújoPaulo Sérgio Mota: 98 passningar, xT 0.56MotaSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 82 passningar, xT 0.54AgraIgor Stefanovic: 77 passningar, xT 0.1StefanovicRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 65 passningar, xT 0.07BarbosaFernando Manuel Ferreira Fonseca: 53 passningar, xT 0.07Fonseca
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Benfica B
    Rui Pedro Ferreira da Silva: 232 passningar, xT 0.47SilvaDiogo Prioste: 213 passningar, xT 0.21PriosteMartim Maria Ferreira: 199 passningar, xT 0.25FerreiraGoncalo Oliveira: 168 passningar, xT 0.24OliveiraNuno Felix: 121 passningar, xT 0.18FelixDaniel Armando Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui: 116 passningar, xT 0.22BanjaquiTiago Parente: 113 passningar, xT 0.3ParenteGonçalo Carvalho Moreira: 106 passningar, xT 0.35MoreiraJoao Rego: 104 passningar, xT -0.14RegoJoão Tomás de Sousa Moreira Cruz: 104 passningar, xT 0.57CruzMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 104 passningar, xT 0.1Figueiredo
    Leixões
    Amadu Balde: 225 passningar, xT 0.26BaldeMatheus de Mello Costa: 211 passningar, xT 0.18CostaLourenco Henriques: 207 passningar, xT 0.42HenriquesSerif Nhaga: 131 passningar, xT 0.94NhagaMiguel Ferreira de Sousa: 103 passningar, xT 0.13SousaCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 101 passningar, xT 0.08AraújoPaulo Sérgio Mota: 98 passningar, xT 0.56MotaSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 82 passningar, xT 0.54AgraIgor Stefanovic: 77 passningar, xT 0.1StefanovicRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 65 passningar, xT 0.07BarbosaFernando Manuel Ferreira Fonseca: 53 passningar, xT 0.07Fonseca

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBenfica BLeixões
    Points4447
    xPoints44.442.4
    xG per match1.31.3
    xGA per match1.41.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.21
    Playing styleBenfica BLeixões
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.560.49
    xT per match0.850.82
    xTA per match0.890.86
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.330.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.370.37
    Entries into the box per match1210
    Entries into the box against1012
    Pass completion %0.750.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.69
    Passes per match311292
    Passes against per match259299
    Switches of play per match26.220.1
    Long balls per match3029
    Set piecesBenfica BLeixões
    xG from free kicks0.10.06
    Corners per match64.5
    Corners against per match4.24.8
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.060.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.56
    OtherBenfica BLeixões
    Throw-in control0.680.68
    The goalkeepersDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B)Miguel Angel Morro (Leixões)
    Saves6945
    Save %66%65%
    xG prevented55%54%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Benfica B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Leixões
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Benfica B vs Leixões according to our model?

    The model gives Benfica B a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 42%, draw 27%, Leixões 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.