01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Farense or draw (1X)64%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Liga Portugal 225°24 km/h
Läs på svenska
FarensePossession control2–1
TorreensePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Farense (36%)
Farense vs Torreense · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Farense 36%X 31%33% Torreense · 2
36%
31%
33%
Analysis: Farense – Torreense
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Sport Clube Uniao Torreense holds a slender edge over Farense, with 53 points against their opponent's 40. However, the expected goals suggest a tighter contest, indicated by 1.4 xG per match for Torreense and 1.3 for Farense. Despite this, Farense has a slight advantage defensively, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.1 compared to Torreense’s 1.2).
The tightness of this matchup is further reflected in the model's probabilities: Farense is given a 36% chance to win, with Torreense not far behind at 33%. The odds of a draw at 31% underline just how closely matched these sides are. When you factor in the expected goals — 1.18 for Farense and 1.20 for Torreense — it's a dead heat pointing towards a low-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines also support this narrative, with 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), and 1-0 (11%) as the top contenders.
Farense comes into this game with a home value proposition that cannot be ignored. At odds of 3.07 with Pinnacle, the model rates them as having a 36% chance of victory, offering a healthy 10% edge. This value play stands out in a match where other betting angles appear finely balanced.
Despite Torreense's slight lead in points and xPoints, the single head-to-head encounter this season, which they won, is too small a sample to heavily influence predictions. Both teams favor possession control, and with the expected goals for both sides hovering around one, it's rational to lean under 2.5 goals.
The value lies with Farense at home, providing a tempting opportunity at the offered odds. Should luck smile, a narrow 1-0 win for Farense could pay dividends for those backing the home side’s value edge.
FarenseForm WDWDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #4xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Marco André da Silva Lopes MatiasFxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
- Franco Gastón Romero PonteCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Toni Herrero OlivaLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
TorreenseForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #6xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Musa Drammeh JaitehFxG 0.57 · xT 0.06
- Javi VazquezLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
- Dany JeanLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Farense 36% · Draw 31% · Torreense 33%
Match prediction: Farense – Torreense
Predicted score matrix
Torreense →
Farense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.6%
0–110.7%
0–26.7%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.5%
1–113.5%
1–27.9%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.4%
2–17.7%
2–24.6%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.0%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-011%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,18–1,20
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,557%
@1.66
Over 2,543%
@2.24
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Farense or draw (1X)64%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Leonardo Daniel de Oliveira to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Leonardo Daniel de Oliveira to score24%
- Guilherme Liberato Tomas de Aquino to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Farense36% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.30PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Farense | X | 2 · Torreense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 20% 3.33 | EV+ 3% 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Torreense win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.62 to 2.25 (−14%).
1+17 %
35 %25 %
2.84 → 3.33
X+9 %
35 %25 %
3.03 → 3.30
2-14 %
45 %35 %
2.62 → 2.25
Over 2,5-1 %
47 %37 %
2.27 → 2.24
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesFarense 0Draw 0Torreense 1
Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Farense
Torreense
Farense (30–35)
Torreense (42–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Farense
Torreense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Farense
Torreense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Farense | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40 | 53 |
| xPoints | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Farense | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 261 | 296 |
| Passes against per match | 293 | 325 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.2 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Farense | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| Other | Farense | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Brian da Rocha Araújo (Farense) | Lucas Paes (Torreense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 93 | 84 |
| Save % | 78% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Farense vs Torreense according to our model?
The model gives Farense a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Farense 36%, draw 31%, Torreense 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.