AVS vs Sporting CP B: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 29 August 202622°18 km/h

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AVS

0–1

Sporting CP BPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · AVS (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sporting CP B @ 3.69 (+7 %)

1 · AVS 42%X 29%29% Sporting CP B · 2

42%

29%

Analysis: AVS – Sporting CP B

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

42% — that's the sharp probability giving Avs Futebol SAD an edge going into this clash against Sporting CP U19. It's an intriguing setup, especially when Avs are seen as favourites against the youth outfit of a club known for nurturing talent. The numbers back up the home side, though the expected goals paint a different picture, with Sporting CP U19 marginally topping the expected tally at 1.20 to Avs' 1.17. It's a close call, suggesting a tight contest is on the cards.

Sporting CP U19 arrives not just with potential, but with a sweet betting angle. Pinnacle offers a tempting 3.97 on an away win, which the model values at 29%, providing a 16% edge. This makes the U19s an alluring underdog play, even as the probabilities and expected scorelines suggest a dead heat. The 14% chance of a 1-1 draw highlights how neck-and-neck this could be, with both sides likely to find the net at some point — underpinned by a 48% both-teams-to-score rate.

Avs Futebol SAD should be buoyed by their status as favourites on paper. However, they face a Sporting CP U19 side that can spring surprises, especially when the odds are skewed in their favour. While a 1-0 or 0-1 outcome is equally likely, the chance of a 1-1 draw at 14% holds its ground, supported by a modest 42% probability of over 2.5 goals. This suggests a cagey affair, with neither side likely to run away with it.

Sporting CP U19, with their odds boost, offers the most intriguing value. The numbers hint at a tight contest unlikely to exceed two goals, favouring a draw or a narrow away win as the shrewd betting angle. It’s not every day you get a 16% edge on a match with such balanced dynamics, making an away flutter at 3.97 a savvy punt — if you’re inclined to back the underdog against the statistical grain.

AVS

Form LWDDL

Sporting CP B

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #5xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Rafael Ferreira NelFxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
Flávio Ferreira GonçalvesLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
Rodrigo Duarte RibeiroFxG 0.44 · xT 0.09

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: AVS 42% · Draw 29% · Sporting CP B 29%

Match prediction: AVS – Sporting CP B

Predicted score matrix

Sporting CP B →

AVS →

0–09.8%

0–110.9%

0–26.7%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.6%

1–113.5%

1–27.9%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.4%

2–17.7%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.5%

3–13.0%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-011%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,17–1,20

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.70

Over 2,542%

@2.17

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance AVS or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance AVS or draw (1X)64%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Bernardo Sousa Pereira Brites Martins to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Bernardo Sousa Pereira Brites Martins to score24%
João António Nascimento Muniz to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sporting CP B29% probability@3.69PinnacleEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AVS	X	2 · Sporting CP B
Pinnacle	2.08	3.36	EV+ 7% 3.69

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Sporting CP B win since 5 August — the odds have shortened from 4.65 to 3.69 (−21%).

1+21 %

55 %45 %

1.71 → 2.08

X-9 %

32 %22 %

3.68 → 3.36

2-21 %

28 %18 %

4.65 → 3.69

Over 2,5+7 %

50 %40 %

2.02 → 2.17

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 05/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP B

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sporting CP B (41–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP B

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP B

The goalkeepers	AVS	Diego Callai Silva (Sporting CP B)
Saves	–	63
Save %	–	72%
xG prevented	–	36%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AVS

Fixtures, form & tips

Sporting CP B

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AVS vs Sporting CP B according to our model?

The model gives AVS a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AVS 42%, draw 29%, Sporting CP B 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.