Farense vs Felgueiras: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 223 August 202622°17 km/h

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Farense

Felgueiras

The model's lean: 1 · Farense (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Felgueiras @ 3.35 (+3 %)

1 · Farense 38%X 31%31% Felgueiras · 2

38%

31%

Analysis: Farense – Felgueiras

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Farense find themselves with a slight edge according to the model, which assigns them a 38% chance of victory against Felgueiras 1932. Yet, the most frequent scoreline projected is a deadlock, with 1-1 leading the way at 14%. This is no surprise given their recent head-to-head encounters: two matches and two draws. However, with a small sample size like that, it tells us little about their current form or potential for surprises.

Felgueiras 1932 come into this matchup with a sense of opportunity, especially considering the betting market. The intriguing part lies in the value odds for an away win, offered at 3.45 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates Felgueiras 1932’s chances at 31%, suggesting a 6% edge for those brave enough to back them. The underdog value here is tempting, even though both teams have nearly an equal shot according to the model.

Farense appear to hold the expected goal advantage, sitting at 1.24 compared to Felgueiras 1932's 1.01. Yet, with an underwhelming 39% probability for over 2.5 goals, it seems we're in for a tight, cagey affair. The impact of this on goal expectations is palpable, pointing towards a fixture where defences take centre stage. It's a clash that promises tension rather than a goal bonanza.

Felgueiras 1932 could exploit Farense's tendency to start sluggishly in games, as seen in their previous draws. While a 1-1 result feels like a safe bet, the sharpest angle is the value on Felgueiras 1932 at those enticing odds. If the wind blowing through the Algarve stirs fortune's favour, the away side might just defy the script.

Farense

Form DWDLW

Key players

Nermin ZolotićRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.89
Cláudio Falcão SantosFxG 0.00 · xT -0.09
Toni Herrero OlivaCBxG 0.03 · xT -0.01

Felgueiras

Form WLDWD

Key players

Lucas da Costa DuarteFxG 0.53 · xT 0.04
Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.51 · xT 0.11
Pedro RosasLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Farense – Felgueiras

Predicted score matrix

Felgueiras →

Farense →

0–010.9%

0–110.2%

0–25.3%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.7%

1–113.6%

1–26.6%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.2%

2–18.2%

2–24.1%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.4%

3–13.4%

3–21.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-011%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,24–1,01

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.52

Over 2,539%

@2.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Farense or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Farense or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals61%
André Miguel Arsénio Candeias to score14%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Lucas da Costa Duarte to score19%
Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.35BetssonEV+3%reference odds
2 · Felgueiras31% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Farense	X	2 · Felgueiras
Betsafe	2.18	2.95	EV+ 3% 3.35
Betsson	2.18	2.95	EV+ 3% 3.35
Nordicbet	2.18	2.95	EV+ 3% 3.35

Odds updated 18 Aug, 18:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

45 %40 %

2.10 → 2.18

X-6 %

33 %28 %

3.15 → 2.95

20 %

29 %24 %

3.35 → 3.35

Over 2,5+6 %

43 %38 %

2.22 → 2.35

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Farense 0Draw 2Felgueiras 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Farense

Felgueiras

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Farense (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Farense

Felgueiras

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Farense

Felgueiras

The goalkeepers	Cláudio Falcão Santos (Farense)	Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)
Saves	2	1
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Farense vs Felgueiras according to our model?

The model gives Farense a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Farense 38%, draw 31%, Felgueiras 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.