Feirense vs Porto B: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Liga Portugal 223 August 202617°20 km/h

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Feirense

Porto B

The model's lean: 1 · Feirense (52%)

1 · Feirense 52%X 28%21% Porto B · 2

52%

28%

21%

Analysis: Feirense – Porto B

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

52%—that's the probability hanging over Feirense's head like a Sword of Damocles, ready to slice through the tension of their matchup against Porto II. Despite Porto II's impressive run of three consecutive wins, the model leans decisively towards Feirense. The numbers suggest a tight contest, with the most likely scoreline emerging as a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side. Feirense's expected goals of 1.42 suggest they'll have their chances, though breaking down a team in form like Porto II will be no cakewalk.

Feirense enter this clash with a slight historical edge in their limited recent encounters, having managed one win, two draws, and a loss against Porto II. Yet, with only four matches since 2023, this head-to-head sample is small and less telling than the current form and xG stats. Porto II's resurgence, marked by their winning streak, adds a layer of complexity to the proceedings, making it hard for Feirense to dismiss them lightly. The numbers also point to a likely constrained affair with a mere 40% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score sitting at 44%.

Porto II's recent form might tempt some to back the underdogs, but the sharpest eye will notice the value lurking in the home odds. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet are all offering odds of 2.0 for a Feirense victory, a 3% edge over the model's assessment. This presents a tantalizing opportunity for those who trust the math over the momentary momentum of Porto II.

With the odds carrying the day, Feirense at home offers the best betting angle. For the punters inclined towards value, sticking to Feirense at odds of 2.0 seems the smart play, even amidst Porto II's intimidating recent form. If the model is any guide, Feirense should emerge with a narrow victory, with 1-0 looming large as the scoreline that would validate the statistical edge.

Feirense

Form WLDDL

Key players

Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.25
Isaac Souza ValencaRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.16

Porto B

Form LLWWW

Key players

Dinis Andrade RodriguesRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Gonçalo Santos SousaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Feirense – Porto B

Predicted score matrix

Porto B →

Feirense →

0–010.6%

0–18.5%

0–23.8%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–014.1%

1–112.9%

1–25.4%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.3%

2–18.9%

2–23.8%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–04.9%

3–14.2%

3–21.8%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.0%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.2-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,42–0,86

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.58

Over 2,540%

@2.22

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Feirense to win52%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Feirense to win52%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Daniel Ballesteros Fernández to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Daniel Ballesteros Fernández to score17%
Felipe Florêncio da Silva to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Feirense52% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Feirense52% probability@2.05BetssonEV+6%reference odds
1 · Feirense52% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Feirense	X	2 · Porto B
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 2.05	3.10	3.50
Betsson	EV+ 6% 2.05	3.10	3.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 2.05	3.10	3.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

48 %43 %

1.95 → 2.05

X-5 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.10

2-5 %

28 %23 %

3.70 → 3.50

Over 2,5+3 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.22

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Feirense 1Draw 2Porto B 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Porto II come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Feirense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Feirense (0–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Feirense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Feirense

The goalkeepers	Diego Altube Suárez (Feirense)	Porto B
Saves	3	–
Save %	75%	–
xG prevented	55%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Feirense vs Porto B according to our model?

The model gives Feirense a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feirense 52%, draw 28%, Porto B 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.