Arouca vs Moreirense: Prediction & Odds (17 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga17 August 2026Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca25°0,6 mm9 km/h

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AroucaCounter-attacks & crosses

MoreirenseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Arouca (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.34 (+8 %)

1 · Arouca 39%X 32%29% Moreirense · 2

39%

32%

29%

Analysis: Arouca – Moreirense

Marcus Johansson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Three consecutive wins have Arouca riding a wave of confidence as they prepare to host Moreirense. Their recent form suggests they’re in prime position to capitalize on a Moreirense side that has only managed to collect a single point from their outings. Yet, beneath these surface-level narratives, the numbers hint at a more complex story.

Model probabilities give Arouca a 39% chance of victory, but with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw at 13%, this is far from a foregone conclusion. Arouca's expected goals tally of 1.30 slightly edges out Moreirense's 1.14, indicating a potential, albeit slim, upper hand. However, Arouca’s defensive frailties are underscored by an alarming xGA of 2.5 per match, suggesting Moreirense could find opportunities via their direct playing style.

Moreirense may be the underdog according to the model, but they boast a more efficient defensive record with an xGA of just 1.0, positioning them to absorb Arouca's counter-attacking and crossing attempts. Despite Arouca’s advantage in direct encounters this year, with each team claiming two victories in their four recent matchups, this small sample size tempers the weight of historical precedence.

Weather doesn’t factor into this analysis, so goalscoring potential remains unclouded by external elements. With a 50% chance of both teams scoring and only a 44% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the match leans towards a cagey affair. The 1-1 prediction is sensible, with defensive considerations making an under 2.5 goals outcome seem prudent.

For those with a betting eye, the value lies in the draw. Pinnacle offers a promising 3.34, providing an 8% edge over the model's 32% probability. Savvy punters might also eye Moreirense’s victory at 3.68 odds from Pinnacle, a tempting 7% edge that capitalizes on Arouca’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Arouca

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #17xP/match #18Points #3

Key players

Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Pedro SantosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Ivan BarberoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.03

Moreirense

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #16xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Gilberto BatistaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Francisco Miguel Teixeira DominguesLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Alexandre Duville-ParsemainFxG 0.11 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Arouca – Moreirense

Predicted score matrix

Moreirense →

Arouca →

0–09.1%

0–19.5%

0–25.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.0%

1–113.3%

1–27.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.4%

2–18.4%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.2%

3–13.7%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,14

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.71

Over 2,544%

@2.14

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Arouca or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Iván Martínez Gonzálvez to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Iván Martínez Gonzálvez to score28%
Espen van Ee to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.34PinnacleEV+8%
2 · Moreirense29% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+7%
X · Draw32% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Arouca	X	2 · Moreirense
Betsafe	2.08	EV+ 3% 3.20	EV+ 3% 3.55
Betsson	2.08	EV+ 3% 3.20	EV+ 3% 3.55
Nordicbet	2.08	EV+ 3% 3.20	EV+ 3% 3.55
Pinnacle	2.07	EV+ 8% 3.34	EV+ 7% 3.68

Odds updated 12 Aug, 16:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Arouca win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 2.28 to 2.07 (−9%).

1-9 %

46 %41 %

2.28 → 2.07

X+5 %

32 %27 %

3.19 → 3.34

2+11 %

30 %25 %

3.32 → 3.68

Over 2,5-2 %

46 %41 %

2.18 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Arouca 2Draw 0Moreirense 2

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Arouca come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arouca

Moreirense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arouca (1–0)

Moreirense (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arouca

Moreirense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arouca

Moreirense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arouca	Moreirense
Points	3	1
xPoints	0.3	0.8
xG per match	0.25	0.24
xGA per match	2.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.59	0.31

Playing style	Arouca	Moreirense
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.24
Field tilt	0.14	0.16
xT per match	0.34	0.35
xTA per match	1.9	0.35
Won balls, offensive half	16	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.41
Entries into the box per match	4	4
Entries into the box against	22	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	318	260
Passes against per match	461	513
Switches of play per match	30.8	19.5
Long balls per match	39	26

Set pieces	Arouca	Moreirense
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	2	3.9
Corners against per match	5.1	1.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	1	1

Other	Arouca	Moreirense
Throw-in control	0.81	0.81

The goalkeepers	Jose Fontan (Arouca)	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)
Saves	4	2
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arouca vs Moreirense according to our model?

The model gives Arouca a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arouca 39%, draw 32%, Moreirense 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.