Primeira LigaEstádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril22°19 km/hUpdated
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Estoril PraiaPossession control
FamalicãoPossession controlEstoril Praia – Famalicão · Primeira Liga
Estoril Praia- Andre LacximicantFxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
- Jordan HolsgroveCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
- Joao CarvalhoCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.16
Famalicão- Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
- Gil DiasRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
- Gustavo SaRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Estoril Praia – Famalicão
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.1-28%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.558% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+10%
- 1 · Estoril Praia31% probability@3.48PinnacleEV+7%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Estoril Praia | X | 2 · Famalicão |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 3.48 | 3.00 | 2.28 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Estoril Praia – Famalicão
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Twelve matches without a loss marks Famalicao as a formidable force in the Primeira Liga. They step onto the pitch against Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia with an evident edge: 56 points to Estoril's 39, and an unbeaten streak that adds psychological weight to their boots. Even the model probabilities lean heavily in their favor, giving them a 42% chance of victory compared to Estoril’s 31%. This numerical advantage isn't just theoretical—it has translated into real-world results, with Famalicao winning three of their last four encounters since 2023.
Famalicao’s style of possession control mirrors that of Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia, yet the slight edge in expected goals per match (1.4 vs. 1.3) and a notably tighter defense (1.0 xGA vs. 1.7 xGA) suggests they wield their strategy with more efficacy. The numbers hint at a tactical deadlock, but Famalicao tends to emerge from these poised encounters with points in their pocket.
Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia must draw on their home advantage, albeit statistically undervalued, to disrupt Famalicao's rhythmic dominance. While Pinnacle offers odds of 3.48 for a home victory, which the model rates with a 7% edge, this remains speculative against Famalicao’s demonstrated mettle.
Numbers tell us the most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%) or 0-1 (12%), with a nod towards a cagey affair. The expected goals tally of 1.10 for Estoril and 1.26 for Famalicao further corroborates a low-scoring encounter. In this vein, the under 2.5 goals market presents intriguing value at odds of 1.884 with Pinnacle. The model rates this with a 10% edge, making it the sharpest betting angle in a match likely defined by tactical prowess rather than goal-scoring flair.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Famalicao are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Estoril Praia | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39 | 56 |
| xPoints | 38 | 52.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Estoril Praia | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 380 | 342 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.8 | 28.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Estoril Praia | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| Other | Estoril Praia | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Joel Robles (Estoril Praia) | Lazar Carević (Famalicão) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 83 | 97 |
| Save % | 61% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Estoril Praia vs Famalicão according to our model?
The model gives Famalicão a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estoril Praia 31%, draw 27%, Famalicão 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.