Primeira LigaEstádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril23°17 km/h

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    Estoril PraiaEstoril PraiaPossession control
    1–1
    FamalicãoFamalicãoPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Famalicão (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.83 (+6 %)

    Estoril Praia vs Famalicão · Primeira Liga

    1 · Estoril Praia 31%X 27%42% Famalicão · 2

    Analysis: Estoril Praia – Famalicão

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Twelve matches without a loss marks Famalicao as a formidable force in the Primeira Liga. They step onto the pitch against Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia with an evident edge: 56 points to Estoril's 39, and an unbeaten streak that adds psychological weight to their boots. Even the model probabilities lean heavily in their favor, giving them a 42% chance of victory compared to Estoril’s 31%. This numerical advantage isn't just theoretical—it has translated into real-world results, with Famalicao winning three of their last four encounters since 2023.

    Famalicao’s style of possession control mirrors that of Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia, yet the slight edge in expected goals per match (1.4 vs. 1.3) and a notably tighter defense (1.0 xGA vs. 1.7 xGA) suggests they wield their strategy with more efficacy. The numbers hint at a tactical deadlock, but Famalicao tends to emerge from these poised encounters with points in their pocket.

    Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia must draw on their home advantage, albeit statistically undervalued, to disrupt Famalicao's rhythmic dominance. While Pinnacle offers odds of 3.48 for a home victory, which the model rates with a 7% edge, this remains speculative against Famalicao’s demonstrated mettle.

    Numbers tell us the most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%) or 0-1 (12%), with a nod towards a cagey affair. The expected goals tally of 1.10 for Estoril and 1.26 for Famalicao further corroborates a low-scoring encounter. In this vein, the under 2.5 goals market presents intriguing value at odds of 1.884 with Pinnacle. The model rates this with a 10% edge, making it the sharpest betting angle in a match likely defined by tactical prowess rather than goal-scoring flair.

    Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia
    Form LLDDL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #5xP/match #16Points #11
    Key players
    • Andre LacximicantFxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
    • Jordan HolsgroveCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
    • Joao CarvalhoCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.16
    FamalicãoFamalicão
    Form DWDDW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #4xP/match #5Points #5
    Key players
    • Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
    • Gil DiasRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
    • Gustavo SaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Estoril Praia 31% · Draw 27% · Famalicão 42%

    Match prediction: Estoril Praia – Famalicão

    Predicted score matrix

    Famalicão →
    Estoril Praia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.9%
    0–111.6%
    0–27.5%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–113.5%
    1–28.2%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–05.7%
    2–17.2%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,10–1,26
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.83EV+6%
    Over 2,542%
    @2.04

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Famalicão or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Famalicão or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Simon Tom Elisor to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Simon Tom Elisor to score23%
    • Mathias De Amorim to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.558% probability@1.83PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Famalicão42% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Estoril PraiaX2 · Famalicão
    Pinnacle3.143.23
    EV+ 2%
    2.42

    Odds updated 7 Aug, 10:46

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Estoril Praia win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 3.48 to 3.14 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    32 %27 %

    3.48 → 3.14

    X+8 %
    33 %28 %

    3.00 → 3.23

    2+6 %
    42 %37 %

    2.28 → 2.42

    Over 2,5+6 %
    51 %46 %

    1.92 → 2.04

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 07/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Estoril Praia 1Draw 0Famalicão 3
    Goals: 2–9 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Famalicao are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Estoril Praia
    Famalicão
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Estoril Praia (54–57)
    Famalicão (42–29)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Estoril Praia
    Jordan Holsgrove: 278 passningar, xT 0.23HolsgroveFelix Bacher: 273 passningar, xT 0.38BacherAntef Tsoungui: 191 passningar, xT 0.27TsounguiFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 188 passningar, xT 0.28FerreiraXeka: 178 passningar, xT 0.12XekaPedro Amaral: 139 passningar, xT 0.58AmaralRicard Sanchez: 138 passningar, xT 0.57SanchezJoao Carvalho: 134 passningar, xT 0.2CarvalhoRafik Guitane: 119 passningar, xT 0.45GuitaneYanis Redha Begraoui: 72 passningar, xT -0.09BegraouiMartin Turk: 58 passningar, xT 0.03Turk
    Famalicão
    Justin de Haas: 291 passningar, xT 0.5HaasTom van de Looi: 196 passningar, xT 0.04LooiRafa Soares: 192 passningar, xT 0.66SoaresLeo Realpe: 170 passningar, xT 0.3RealpeLazar Carević: 159 passningar, xT -0.03CarevićRodrigo Pinheiro: 127 passningar, xT 0.69PinheiroMathias De Amorim: 106 passningar, xT 0.34AmorimGustavo Sa: 100 passningar, xT 0.36SaMarcos Vinicios Lopes Moura: 95 passningar, xT 0.33MouraGil Dias: 77 passningar, xT 0.48DiasIbrahima Ba: 76 passningar, xT 0.05Ba
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Estoril Praia
    Jordan Holsgrove: 278 passningar, xT 0.23HolsgroveFelix Bacher: 273 passningar, xT 0.38BacherAntef Tsoungui: 191 passningar, xT 0.27TsounguiFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 188 passningar, xT 0.28FerreiraXeka: 178 passningar, xT 0.12XekaPedro Amaral: 139 passningar, xT 0.58AmaralRicard Sanchez: 138 passningar, xT 0.57SanchezJoao Carvalho: 134 passningar, xT 0.2CarvalhoRafik Guitane: 119 passningar, xT 0.45GuitaneYanis Redha Begraoui: 72 passningar, xT -0.09BegraouiMartin Turk: 58 passningar, xT 0.03Turk
    Famalicão
    Justin de Haas: 291 passningar, xT 0.5HaasTom van de Looi: 196 passningar, xT 0.04LooiRafa Soares: 192 passningar, xT 0.66SoaresLeo Realpe: 170 passningar, xT 0.3RealpeLazar Carević: 159 passningar, xT -0.03CarevićRodrigo Pinheiro: 127 passningar, xT 0.69PinheiroMathias De Amorim: 106 passningar, xT 0.34AmorimGustavo Sa: 100 passningar, xT 0.36SaMarcos Vinicios Lopes Moura: 95 passningar, xT 0.33MouraGil Dias: 77 passningar, xT 0.48DiasIbrahima Ba: 76 passningar, xT 0.05Ba

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEstoril PraiaFamalicão
    Points3956
    xPoints3852.7
    xG per match1.31.4
    xGA per match1.71
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.17
    Playing styleEstoril PraiaFamalicão
    Build-up efficiency0.290.28
    Field tilt0.520.56
    xT per match0.941.1
    xTA per match0.970.68
    Won balls, offensive half2627
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.35
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1110
    Pass completion %0.780.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.69
    Passes per match380342
    Passes against per match333330
    Switches of play per match20.828.1
    Long balls per match2933
    Set piecesEstoril PraiaFamalicão
    xG from free kicks0.060.1
    Corners per match4.45.5
    Corners against per match54.9
    xG per corner0.060.05
    xGA per corner against0.070.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.63
    OtherEstoril PraiaFamalicão
    Throw-in control0.670.66
    The goalkeepersJoel Robles (Estoril Praia)Lazar Carević (Famalicão)
    Saves8397
    Save %61%77%
    xG prevented36%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Estoril Praia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Famalicão
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Estoril Praia vs Famalicão according to our model?

    The model gives Famalicão a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estoril Praia 31%, draw 27%, Famalicão 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.