Vitória de Guimarães vs Arouca: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga8 August 2026Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães21°1,5 mm12 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Vitória de GuimarãesPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Vitória de Guimarães (46%)

AroucaPossession control

1 · Vitória de Guimarães 46%X 28%26% Arouca · 2

46%

28%

26%

Vitória de Guimarães

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #6xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Oscar RivasCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Thiago Balieiro Lourenço de CarvalhoCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.03
Fábio Samuel Amorim da SilvaCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.1

Arouca

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #14xGA #10xT #11xP/match #13Points #9

Key players

Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Pedro SantosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.1
Ivan BarberoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Vitória de Guimarães – Arouca

Predicted score matrix

Arouca →

Vitória de Guimarães →

0–08.6%

0–18.1%

0–24.3%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.9%

1–112.8%

1–26.3%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.2%

2–24.7%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.4%

3–14.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,48–1,02

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.89EV+3%

Over 2,545%

@1.91

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Arouca26% probability@4.15PinnacleEV+8%
Under 2.555% probability@1.89PinnacleEV+3%
X · Draw28% probability@3.60PinnacleEV+0%

Bookmaker	1 · Vitória de Guimarães	X	2 · Arouca
Pinnacle	1.84	EV+ 0% 3.60	EV+ 8% 4.15

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Vitória de Guimarães – Arouca

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Three consecutive losses hang heavily over Vitoria Guimaraes like a grey cloud, yet the numbers offer a glimmer of hope. The model shades them as favourites at 46%, ahead of Arouca's 26%. It's a fragile lead, underscored by their possession-oriented style that hasn't translated into dominance on the pitch. Yet, in the xG battle, Vitoria Guimaraes edges Arouca: 1.3 to 1.1 per match. This suggests they should create more chances, but whether they can convert these into goals remains the question.

Vitoria Guimaraes haven't made the most of their chances recently, as evidenced by their recent slump. They hold a slight edge in head-to-head encounters since 2023, with one win, two draws, and one loss. This parity hints at another tight affair. The model's most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed closely by a 1-0 victory for the home side at 12%. With expected goals of 1.48 for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.02 for Arouca, the home side holds a slender advantage, yet it may not be enough to secure all three points.

Arouca's value at odds of 4.15 with Pinnacle might catch the eye for those seeking a punt. While their chances are pegged at 26%, the 8% edge suggests a potential upset is not out of the question. Yet, a draw at 3.6 with Pinnacle—matching the 28% model probability—might offer a more conservative approach. Both sides' tendencies to control possession could lead to a stalemate, especially given the 50% chance of both teams scoring.

The over/under market leans towards a cautious affair. With a 45% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 50%, the under 2.5 market at odds of 1.892 with Pinnacle presents a modest 3% edge, suggesting a low-scoring contest. In a match where margins are tight and neither side can afford to slip further, the shrewdest bet might just lie in expecting a tense, tactical battle with limited fireworks.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Vitória de Guimarães 1Draw 2Arouca 1

Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Vitoria Guimaraes have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vitória de Guimarães

Arouca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Vitória de Guimarães (39–51)

Arouca (47–64)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vitória de Guimarães

Arouca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vitória de Guimarães

Arouca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vitória de Guimarães	Arouca
Points	42	42
xPoints	48.4	40.5
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.23

Playing style	Vitória de Guimarães	Arouca
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.27
Field tilt	0.56	0.44
xT per match	0.88	0.74
xTA per match	0.82	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.33
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	333	357
Passes against per match	318	356
Switches of play per match	23.6	24.5
Long balls per match	27	30

Set pieces	Vitória de Guimarães	Arouca
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	4.4	3.7
Corners against per match	3.9	5.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.59

Other	Vitória de Guimarães	Arouca
Throw-in control	0.73	0.73

The goalkeepers	Charles Marcelo da Silva (Vitória de Guimarães)	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)
Saves	62	39
Save %	67%	65%
xG prevented	39%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vitória de Guimarães vs Arouca according to our model?

The model gives Vitória de Guimarães a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitória de Guimarães 46%, draw 28%, Arouca 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.