Primeira LigaEstádio José Gomes, Amadora23°15 km/hUpdated
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Estrela da AmadoraPossession control
Sporting CPPossession & high pressEstrela da Amadora – Sporting CP · Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amadora- Sidny CabralRWxG 0.3 · xT 0.24
- Rodrigo PinhoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.03
- Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Sporting CP- Luis SuarezFxG 0.64 · xT 0.1
- Francisco TrincaoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
- Goncalo InacioCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Estrela da Amadora – Sporting CP
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-211%
- 2.0-310%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-38%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,5Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw16% probability@6.88PinnacleEV+9%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Estrela da Amadora | X | 2 · Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 12.54 | EV+ 9% 6.88 | 1.18 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Estrela da Amadora – Sporting CP
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Thirty-four straight games with a goal. That's a remarkable streak for Sporting Lisboa and a key narrative as they head into this clash against CF Estrela Amadora. The numbers aren't just in their favour; they're emphatically stacked. A model probability giving Sporting a towering 76% chance to take all three points underscores the gulf between these two sides. Estrela Amadora, with a meager 8% win probability, looks set to play out a familiar role as underdogs.
CF Estrela Amadora's penchant for possession control might be their strategy, but against a high-pressing Sporting Lisboa, it's akin to bringing a knife to a gunfight. With Sporting's expected goals at a commanding 2.71 compared to Estrela's 0.78, it’s hard to see how the home side can contain this attacking juggernaut. Historical form since 2023 further paints a grim picture for Estrela: two matches, two losses.
Sporting Lisboa are riding a wave, three straight wins in the bag, and they’re not just putting points on the board; they're doing it with flair, scoring consistently. The most likely scorelines all favour Sporting, with 0-2 at 11% and 0-3 at 10%, indicating not just a win, but a potentially comfortable one. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 68%, reinforcing the expectation of a goal-fest, with both teams scoring a coin-flip at 51%.
CF Estrela Amadora need a miracle, but the numbers suggest otherwise. For the punters, there’s a glimmer of value in the odds for a draw. Pinnacle offers it at 6.88, presenting a 9% edge over the model’s 16% probability. While the draw might appeal to those with a taste for risk, the smart money follows form and the relentless scoring pattern of Sporting Lisboa. A 0-2 away win seems the most probable outcome for a team that just keeps finding the net.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Sporting Lisboa come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Sporting Lisboa have scored in 34 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Estrela da Amadora | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 30 | 82 |
| xPoints | 42.5 | 57.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.85 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Estrela da Amadora | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.59 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 294 | 488 |
| Passes against per match | 351 | 283 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 28.1 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Estrela da Amadora | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.3 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 3.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| Other | Estrela da Amadora | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Renan Ribeiro (Estrela da Amadora) | Rui Silva (Sporting CP) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 98 | 76 |
| Save % | 65% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting CP according to our model?
The model gives Sporting CP a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estrela da Amadora 8%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 76%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.