Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting CP: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga8 August 2026Estádio José Gomes, Amadora25°18 km/h

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Estrela da AmadoraPossession control

2–2

Sporting CPPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sporting CP (76%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 6.41 (+2 %)

1 · Estrela da Amadora 8%X 16%76% Sporting CP · 2

16%

76%

Analysis: Estrela da Amadora – Sporting CP

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Sporting Lisboa's current run of form, with three consecutive wins, is a stark contrast to CF Estrela Amadora's struggles. It's not just the winning streak; Sporting's ability to find the net in 34 consecutive league matches highlights their prowess in attack, a significant factor weighing heavily against CF Estrela Amadora. The model's probabilities, giving Sporting Lisboa a hefty 76% chance to win, are supported by expected goals figures showing Sporting Lisboa at 2.71 compared to CF Estrela Amadora's 0.78. The numbers paint a clear picture of dominance from the visitors.

Sporting Lisboa arrive with sharp attacking potential, evidenced by the most likely scoreline of 0-2 at 11%, followed closely by a 0-3 at 10%. CF Estrela Amadora, with a solitary 8% chance, will need to defy not just their opponents but also the model's stern predictions. Their possession control style may help mitigate some of the pressure but against a high-pressing Sporting side, such tactics could easily be undone.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of just two matches since 2023, does not inspire confidence for CF Estrela Amadora with two losses. Meanwhile, the expected goals against per match, with Sporting Lisboa at a low 0.85, suggests that breaking through their defense will be a monumental task for the hosts. The xPoints disparity (42.5 for CF Estrela Amadora versus 57.6 for Sporting Lisboa) further underscores the uphill battle facing the home team.

With a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals, there's an evident lean towards a high-scoring affair. Yet, the more intriguing betting angle may lie in the over 2.5 goals market, where Sporting Lisboa's relentless attack could see them cover the line almost single-handedly. At 1.9 odds with Bet365, backing over 2.5 goals offers value to those looking to capitalize on Sporting's firepower. This match has all the makings of a straightforward Sporting Lisboa victory, with a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline underlining their superiority.

Estrela da Amadora

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #13xP/match #11Points #15

Key players

Sidny CabralRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.24
Rodrigo PinhoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.03
Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14

Sporting CP

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Luis SuarezFxG 0.64 · xT 0.10
Francisco TrincaoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.16
Goncalo InacioCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Estrela da Amadora 8% · Draw 16% · Sporting CP 76%

Match prediction: Estrela da Amadora – Sporting CP

Predicted score matrix

Sporting CP →

Estrela da Amadora →

0–03.2%

0–18.1%

0–211.2%

0–310.1%

0–4+13.2%

1–02.2%

1–16.6%

1–28.7%

1–37.9%

1–4+10.3%

2–00.9%

2–12.5%

2–23.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+4.0%

3–00.2%

3–10.7%

3–20.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.1%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-211%
2.0-310%
3.1-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-38%

Expected goals

0,78–2,71

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

–

Over 2,568%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win76%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win76%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score39%
Luan Patrick Wiedthäuper to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw16% probability@6.41PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Estrela da Amadora	X	2 · Sporting CP
Pinnacle	11.39	EV+ 2% 6.41	1.24

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1-9 %

10 %5 %

12.54 → 11.39

X-7 %

17 %12 %

6.88 → 6.41

2+4 %

80 %75 %

1.18 → 1.24

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Estrela da Amadora 0Draw 0Sporting CP 2

Goals: 0–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 34 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Estrela da Amadora

Sporting CP

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Estrela da Amadora (38–56)

Sporting CP (89–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Estrela da Amadora

Sporting CP

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Estrela da Amadora

Sporting CP

The teams in numbers

Performance	Estrela da Amadora	Sporting CP
Points	30	82
xPoints	42.5	57.6
xG per match	1.2	1.9
xGA per match	1.6	0.85
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.19

Playing style	Estrela da Amadora	Sporting CP
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.34
Field tilt	0.34	0.69
xT per match	0.74	1.4
xTA per match	1	0.59
Won balls, offensive half	20	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.3
Entries into the box per match	8	17
Entries into the box against	14	7
Pass completion %	0.76	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	294	488
Passes against per match	351	283
Switches of play per match	24.1	28.1
Long balls per match	30	30

Set pieces	Estrela da Amadora	Sporting CP
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.1
Corners per match	3.3	6.9
Corners against per match	5.7	3.1
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.54

Other	Estrela da Amadora	Sporting CP
Throw-in control	0.71	0.79

The goalkeepers	Renan Ribeiro (Estrela da Amadora)	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)
Saves	98	76
Save %	65%	78%
xG prevented	38%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Estrela da Amadora

Fixtures, form & tips

Sporting CP

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting CP according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estrela da Amadora 8%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 76%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.