Moreirense vs Braga: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga9 August 2026Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos23°15 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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MoreirensePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Braga (57%)

BragaPossession & high press

1 · Moreirense 20%X 23%57% Braga · 2

20%

23%

57%

Moreirense

Form WLWLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #14xP/match #18Points #7

Key players

Guilherme SchettineFxG 0.56 · xT 0.02
Alan de Souza GuimarãesCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.1
Diogo TravassosRWxG 0.1 · xT 0.13

Braga

Form WLDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #8xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Victor GomezRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Gustaf LagerbielkeCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Vitor CarvalhoCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Moreirense – Braga

Predicted score matrix

Braga →

Moreirense →

0–07.2%

0–111.8%

0–210.6%

0–36.2%

0–4+4.1%

1–06.0%

1–111.4%

1–29.8%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.7%

2–02.9%

2–15.1%

2–24.5%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.7%

3–00.9%

3–11.6%

3–21.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.1-111%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,92–1,76

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.85

Over 2,550%

@1.95

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Moreirense	X	2 · Braga
Pinnacle	4.64	3.69	1.74

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Moreirense – Braga

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Nineteen consecutive league matches have seen SC Braga find the back of the net, an unyielding streak that casts a long shadow over Moreirense's hopes. This isn't just about numbers; it's about SC Braga's relentless pursuit of goals, backed by a high-pressing style that suffocates the opposition. Moreirense, while adept at possession control, lacks the cutting edge in attack to truly trouble Braga's robust backline. The model probabilities mirror this narrative, with a 57% lean towards an SC Braga victory.

Moreirense has yet to notch a win or even a draw in their head-to-head battles with SC Braga since 2023, a telling sign of the gulf in quality. With expected goals (xG) of 0.92 for Moreirense against SC Braga's 1.76, the outcome seems to favor a low-scoring affair dominated by the visitors. The most likely scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2 further cement the notion that Moreirense may struggle to break their duck against a superior side.

SC Braga's possession and high press approach not only promises goals but also stifles Moreirense's efforts in possession. With an xGA of 1.0, SC Braga has shown they can control matches defensively, an area where Moreirense's xGA of 1.5 highlights vulnerabilities. This defensive fragility, combined with SC Braga's attacking prowess, hints at a controlled, methodical performance from the visitors.

The over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score markets are finely balanced at 50%, making the under 2.5 goals slightly more appealing given the expected dominance of SC Braga's disciplined defense. For sharp bettors, Bet 365 offers SC Braga to win at odds of 1.75, a value play considering the historical and statistical trends favoring the visitors. A 0-2 victory for SC Braga, aligning with historical form and current capabilities, looks the most plausible outcome.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Moreirense 0Draw 0Braga 4

Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

SC Braga have scored in 19 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Moreirense

Braga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Moreirense (37–49)

Braga (64–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Braga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Braga

The teams in numbers

Performance	Moreirense	Braga
Points	43	59
xPoints	37.5	52.3
xG per match	1	1.7
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.21

Playing style	Moreirense	Braga
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.75
xT per match	0.73	0.78
xTA per match	0.91	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	21	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.34
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	12	8
Pass completion %	0.79	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	373	540
Passes against per match	377	289
Switches of play per match	22.8	22.9
Long balls per match	27	26

Set pieces	Moreirense	Braga
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.12
Corners per match	3.7	5.3
Corners against per match	4.8	3.1
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.54

Other	Moreirense	Braga
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)	Lukas Hornicek (Braga)
Saves	73	74
Save %	66%	70%
xG prevented	39%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Moreirense vs Braga according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 20%, draw 23%, Braga 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.