Moreirense vs Braga: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga9 August 2026Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos22°0,6 mm18 km/h

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MoreirensePossession control

2–2

BragaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Braga (57%)Best value by the model: 1 · Moreirense @ 5.75 (+15 %)

1 · Moreirense 20%X 23%57% Braga · 2

20%

23%

57%

Analysis: Moreirense – Braga

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Four matches on the trot, and SC Braga have emerged victorious each time against Moreirense since 2023. While the head-to-head sample is admittedly small, SC Braga’s superiority in this matchup aligns with the broader narrative of the season. SC Braga's model probability stands at a dominant 57%, which places them in the driver's seat, especially given their 19-game scoring streak in the league.

Moreirense, the underdogs here with a 20% chance of victory, will need more than just possession control to overcome SC Braga's high-pressing dynamism. Their expected goals (xG) tally of only 0.92 reflects this uphill battle, which pales in comparison to SC Braga’s more robust 1.76 xG. The pattern suggests that Moreirense’s creative output might falter in the face of SC Braga’s aggressive style, aligning with the model’s most likely scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2.

SC Braga, with a points tally of 59 and an xPoints differential of nearly 15 over Moreirense, should capitalize on their opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities. Moreirense’s xGA figure of 1.5 betrays a leaky rear guard, something SC Braga’s attacking prowess is well-equipped to exploit. The likelihood of SC Braga maintaining their scoring run seems highly probable, underscored by their 19 consecutive league games with a goal.

The over/under 2.5 goals market sits evenly poised at 50%, as does both teams to score. However, with rain on the horizon, conditions could suppress scoring opportunities, leaning the game towards a tighter affair. Yet, the sharpest insight comes from the betting value: SC Braga to win at odds of 1.85 with William Hill presents a compelling edge. The numbers say it's Braga's game to lose, and the odds favor the punter looking to back the form horse galloping with confidence into another potential victory.

Moreirense

Form WLWLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #14xP/match #18Points #7

Key players

Guilherme SchettineFxG 0.56 · xT 0.02
Alan de Souza GuimarãesCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.10
Diogo TravassosRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13

Braga

Form WLDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #8xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Victor GomezRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Gustaf LagerbielkeCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Vitor CarvalhoCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.05

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Moreirense 20% · Draw 23% · Braga 57%

Match prediction: Moreirense – Braga

Predicted score matrix

Braga →

Moreirense →

0–07.2%

0–111.8%

0–210.6%

0–36.2%

0–4+4.1%

1–06.0%

1–111.4%

1–29.8%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.7%

2–02.9%

2–15.1%

2–24.5%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.7%

3–00.9%

3–11.6%

3–21.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.1-111%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,92–1,76

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.84

Over 2,550%

@2.02EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Braga to win57%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Braga to win57%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Pau Víctor Delgado to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Pau Víctor Delgado to score23%
João Filipe Iria Santos Moutinho to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Moreirense20% probability@5.75PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
Over 2.550% probability@2.02PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Moreirense	X	2 · Braga
Pinnacle	EV+ 15% 5.75	3.93	1.61

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Braga win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 1.74 to 1.61 (−7%).

1+24 %

23 %13 %

4.64 → 5.75

X+7 %

30 %20 %

3.69 → 3.93

2-7 %

62 %52 %

1.74 → 1.61

Over 2,5+3 %

53 %43 %

1.95 → 2.02

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Moreirense 0Draw 0Braga 4

Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

SC Braga have scored in 19 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Moreirense

Braga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Moreirense (37–49)

Braga (64–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Braga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Braga

The teams in numbers

Performance	Moreirense	Braga
Points	43	59
xPoints	37.5	52.3
xG per match	1	1.7
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.21

Playing style	Moreirense	Braga
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.75
xT per match	0.73	0.78
xTA per match	0.91	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	21	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.34
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	12	8
Pass completion %	0.79	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	373	540
Passes against per match	377	289
Switches of play per match	22.8	22.9
Long balls per match	27	26

Set pieces	Moreirense	Braga
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.12
Corners per match	3.7	5.3
Corners against per match	4.8	3.1
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.54

Other	Moreirense	Braga
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)	Lukas Hornicek (Braga)
Saves	73	74
Save %	66%	70%
xG prevented	39%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Moreirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Braga

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Moreirense vs Braga according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 20%, draw 23%, Braga 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.