Porto vs Alverca: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga9 August 2026Estádio do Dragão, Porto22°16 km/h

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PortoPossession & high press

2–0

AlvercaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Porto (79%)Best value by the model: 2 · Alverca @ 13.78 (+7 %)

1 · Porto 79%X 13%8% Alverca · 2

79%

13%

Analysis: Porto – Alverca

Sofia Andersson · 7 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Two matches tell us FC Porto have Futebol Clube De Alverca's number, but with such a small sample size, it's the form and expected goals that truly steer this analysis. FC Porto, undeniably the dominant force, boast a 79% probability of victory, buoyed by their staggering record of scoring in 26 consecutive league matches. Their offensive prowess is underscored by an expected goals figure of 2.22 against Alverca's meagre 0.69, a clear testament to the attacking disparity between these sides.

Futebol Clube De Alverca’s strength lies in their capacity to counter-attack, yet this tactic is set to be stifled by Porto’s high press and possession-based game, a style that has consistently delivered results at home. Winning 75% of their home matches attests to their ability to capitalize on their strengths, creating a daunting environment for any visiting team. With Porto's scoring streak and home dominance, the numbers are pointing toward a likely 2-0 or 3-0 victory, giving more than a nod to the over 2.5 goals market, which sits at a comfortable 56% likelihood.

The weather isn't playing spoiler, so goals should flow unless Alverca can conjure a formidable defensive stand. Even then, Porto’s xG of 1.7 per match towers over Alverca’s 1.1, further solidifying the hosts' grip on the proceedings. Though the odds of an Alverca upset are slim, with just an 8% probability, Pinnacle dangles an enticing 13.37 for the brave bettor. With a model-rated edge of 4%, it’s an opportunity for those seeking value in chaos.

In essence, while Futebol Clube De Alverca might dream of a giant-killing act, the stage is set for FC Porto to deliver another professional performance. Savvy punters might be tempted by Alverca's odds, but the numbers clearly favour a Porto-centric script.

Porto

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #1

Key players

Samu AghehowaFxG 0.67 · xT 0.00
Jakub KiwiorCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Pablo Paulino RosarioCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.12

Alverca

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #12xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos SantosRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas FilhoCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Kaiky Marques NavesCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Porto 79% · Draw 13% · Alverca 8%

Match prediction: Porto – Alverca

Predicted score matrix

Alverca →

Porto →

0–05.7%

0–13.5%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.9%

1–18.6%

1–22.9%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.4%

2–19.3%

2–23.2%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.0%

3–16.9%

3–22.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.3%

4+–16.4%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,22–0,69

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Porto to win79%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Porto to win79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Deniz Daniel Gül to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Deniz Daniel Gül to score36%
Kaiky Marques Naves to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Alverca8% probability@13.78PinnacleEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Porto	X	2 · Alverca
Pinnacle	1.19	7.33	EV+ 7% 13.78

Odds updated 9 Aug, 08:09

Odds movement

1+2 %

83 %78 %

1.17 → 1.19

X+2 %

15 %10 %

7.16 → 7.33

2+2 %

9 %4 %

13.50 → 13.78

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Porto 2Draw 0Alverca 0

Goals: 4–0 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Porto have scored in 26 consecutive league matches.
FC Porto win 75% of their home matches all-time (51 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Porto

Alverca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Porto (66–18)

Alverca (35–52)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Porto

Alverca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Porto

Alverca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Porto	Alverca
Points	88	39
xPoints	55.2	46.4
xG per match	1.7	1.1
xGA per match	0.84	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.26

Playing style	Porto	Alverca
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.58	0.37
xT per match	1.1	0.74
xTA per match	0.51	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	29	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.3
Entries into the box per match	14	9
Entries into the box against	7	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	391	308
Passes against per match	305	405
Switches of play per match	18.1	21.4
Long balls per match	25	28

Set pieces	Porto	Alverca
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.11
Corners per match	5.6	4.4
Corners against per match	3	4.5
xG per corner	0.07	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.56

Other	Porto	Alverca
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Diogo Costa (Porto)	Andre Gomes (Alverca)
Saves	60	71
Save %	81%	65%
xG prevented	65%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Porto

Fixtures, form & tips

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Porto vs Alverca according to our model?

The model gives Porto a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto 79%, draw 13%, Alverca 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.