Primeira LigaEstádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos22°18 km/h

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    Gil VicenteGil VicentePossession control
    1–0
    Rio AveRio AvePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Gil Vicente (51%)

    Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave · Primeira Liga

    1 · Gil Vicente 51%X 28%21% Rio Ave · 2

    Analysis: Gil Vicente – Rio Ave

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Four draws in four head-to-heads since 2023 expose a curious tension in the clash between Gil Vicente and Rio Ave. While the historical sample is slim, it hints at a potentially cagey affair. But as we dig into the season form and expected goals, the scales tip decisively in favor of Gil Vicente. A 51% probability model backs them, an indication of their superiority this season, supported by a comfortable lead in both the points tally and expected points.

    Gil Vicente boast a possession-heavy style, and their xG of 1.68 against Rio Ave’s 0.97 suggests they will carve out more chances. Their defense, conceding an average of 1.1 xGA per match compared to Rio Ave’s leaky 1.6, further underscores their solidity at home. Yet, the specter of stalemate lingers, with the most probable results still tipping towards a low-scoring 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 victory for Gil Vicente.

    51% for both teams to score aligns closely with a stifling possession battle, hinting at just a sliver of offensive potency from Rio Ave. Meanwhile, the over/under 2.5 goals sits tantalizingly balanced at 49%, suggesting a scoreline that avoids fireworks but doesn’t dismiss late drama. The weather, if inclement, may play the role of the twelfth man, suppressing the goal count further, but isn't a factor in this analysis.

    Gil Vicente’s solid stats spell a likely 1-0 or 2-0 win — the latter offers a whiff of value if Rio Ave’s defense buckles under sustained pressure. For those scanning the betting lines, Bet365 prices Gil Vicente to win at 1.95, a nod towards value (EV+), if you fancy them to finally break the deadlock in this matchup. The numbers don't guarantee it, but they certainly suggest it's worth a punt.

    Gil VicenteGil Vicente
    Form LWDLL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #7xP/match #4Points #6
    Key players
    • Pablo FelipeFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
    • Murilo de Souza CostaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.13
    • Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
    Rio AveRio Ave
    Form DLDLD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #15xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • Diogo Bezerra de OliveiraFxG 0.18 · xT 0.17
    • Clayton Fernandes SilvaFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
    • Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Gil Vicente 51% · Draw 28% · Rio Ave 21%

    Match prediction: Gil Vicente – Rio Ave

    Predicted score matrix

    Rio Ave →
    Gil Vicente →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.4%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.4%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,68–0,97
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,551%
    @1.85
    Over 2,549%
    @2.01

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Gil Vicente to win51%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Gil Vicente to win51%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela to score28%
    • Andreas Richardos Ntoi to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Gil Vicente51% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Gil VicenteX2 · Rio Ave
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    2.05    		3.433.77

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Rio Ave win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 4.16 to 3.77 (−9%).

    1+11 %
    51 %46 %

    1.84 → 2.05

    X-4 %
    30 %25 %

    3.59 → 3.43

    2-9 %
    27 %22 %

    4.16 → 3.77

    Over 2,5+3 %
    51 %46 %

    1.94 → 2.01

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Gil Vicente 0Draw 4Rio Ave 0
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Gil Vicente
    Rio Ave
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Gil Vicente (47–38)
    Rio Ave (35–57)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Gil Vicente
    Luis Esteves: 212 passningar, xT 0.16EstevesJonathan Buatu: 194 passningar, xT 0.26BuatuMarvin Elimbi: 163 passningar, xT 0.2ElimbiJosé Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves: 147 passningar, xT 0.37GonçalvesGhislain N'Clomande Konan: 146 passningar, xT 0.59KonanMurilo de Souza Costa: 119 passningar, xT 0.9CostaJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 117 passningar, xT 0.04FerreiraSanti Garcia: 111 passningar, xT 0.38GarciaDani Figueira: 106 passningar, xT 0.03FigueiraFacundo Caseres: 85 passningar, xT 0.05CaseresAntonio Espigares: 40 passningar, xT 0.21Espigares
    Rio Ave
    Gustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 239 passningar, xT 0.38ConceiçãoJakub Brabec: 157 passningar, xT 0.16BrabecCezary Miszta: 136 passningar, xT 0.09MisztaAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 127 passningar, xT 0.07NtoiMarios Vrousai: 122 passningar, xT 0.32VrousaiNelson Abbey: 102 passningar, xT 0.21AbbeyRyan Guilherme da Silva Pae: 96 passningar, xT 0.05PaeTamás Nikitscher: 93 passningar, xT 0.12NikitscherDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 88 passningar, xT 0.88OliveiraJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 80 passningar, xT 0.8BlesaDario Špikić: 74 passningar, xT 0.14Špikić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Gil Vicente
    Luis Esteves: 212 passningar, xT 0.16EstevesJonathan Buatu: 194 passningar, xT 0.26BuatuMarvin Elimbi: 163 passningar, xT 0.2ElimbiJosé Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves: 147 passningar, xT 0.37GonçalvesGhislain N'Clomande Konan: 146 passningar, xT 0.59KonanMurilo de Souza Costa: 119 passningar, xT 0.9CostaJosé Carlos Natário Ferreira: 117 passningar, xT 0.04FerreiraSanti Garcia: 111 passningar, xT 0.38GarciaDani Figueira: 106 passningar, xT 0.03FigueiraFacundo Caseres: 85 passningar, xT 0.05CaseresAntonio Espigares: 40 passningar, xT 0.21Espigares
    Rio Ave
    Gustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 239 passningar, xT 0.38ConceiçãoJakub Brabec: 157 passningar, xT 0.16BrabecCezary Miszta: 136 passningar, xT 0.09MisztaAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 127 passningar, xT 0.07NtoiMarios Vrousai: 122 passningar, xT 0.32VrousaiNelson Abbey: 102 passningar, xT 0.21AbbeyRyan Guilherme da Silva Pae: 96 passningar, xT 0.05PaeTamás Nikitscher: 93 passningar, xT 0.12NikitscherDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 88 passningar, xT 0.88OliveiraJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 80 passningar, xT 0.8BlesaDario Špikić: 74 passningar, xT 0.14Špikić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGil VicenteRio Ave
    Points5036
    xPoints54.539.5
    xG per match1.61
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.22
    Playing styleGil VicenteRio Ave
    Build-up efficiency0.270.26
    Field tilt0.560.35
    xT per match0.820.7
    xTA per match0.721.1
    Won balls, offensive half2622
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.3
    Entries into the box per match119
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.760.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.73
    Passes per match317334
    Passes against per match320391
    Switches of play per match30.119.7
    Long balls per match3125
    Set piecesGil VicenteRio Ave
    xG from free kicks0.040.08
    Corners per match5.64.3
    Corners against per match3.96.6
    xG per corner0.050.02
    xGA per corner against0.060.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.54
    OtherGil VicenteRio Ave
    Throw-in control0.650.67
    The goalkeepersAndrew da Silva Ventura (Gil Vicente)Cezary Miszta (Rio Ave)
    Saves4577
    Save %80%68%
    xG prevented52%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Gil Vicente
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rio Ave
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave according to our model?

    The model gives Gil Vicente a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gil Vicente 51%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.