Primeira LigaEstádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos22°18 km/hUpdated
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Gil VicentePossession control
Rio AvePossession controlGil Vicente – Rio Ave · Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente- Pablo FelipeFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
- Murilo de Souza CostaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.13
- Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
Rio Ave- Diogo Bezerra de OliveiraFxG 0.18 · xT 0.17
- Clayton Fernandes SilvaFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
- Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Gil Vicente – Rio Ave
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,7Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+0%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gil Vicente | X | 2 · Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | EV+ 0% 3.59 | 4.16 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Gil Vicente – Rio Ave
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Four head-to-head draws since 2023 present an intriguing backdrop to Gil Vicente's clash with Rio Ave. Despite Gil Vicente's clear statistical superiority in points (50 vs 36) and expected points (54.5 vs 39.5), they've been unable to translate their dominance into victory against Rio Ave. This paradoxical pattern sets up a chess match between two sides with a knack for possession control, yet differing in execution and potency.
Gil Vicente boasts an expected goals (xG) per match of 1.6, comfortably ahead of Rio Ave's 1.0. It's no surprise then that the model leans towards a Gil Vicente win, giving them a 51% probability. Yet, the ghosts of past stalemates linger in the air, casting doubt on their ability to clinch all three points. Rio Ave's xGA of 1.6 further compounds their defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a game where Gil Vicente could dominate proceedings.
A scoreline of 1-1 or 1-0 appears most likely, each sitting at 12%. The expected goals (1.68 for Gil Vicente and 0.97 for Rio Ave) align with these forecasts, hinting at a contest where Gil Vicente might just edge ahead. With a 49% chance for over 2.5 goals, the metrics suggest a tight affair, with neither side likely to run away with the game. Additionally, the 51% probability for both teams to score underscores the potential for shared spoils.
Gil Vicente must overcome their psychological block against a Rio Ave team that consistently finds a way to frustrate them. Though the model leans towards a home win, there's no ignoring the draw's attractive odds at 3.59 with Pinnacle, aligned with a precise 28% model probability. While this offers no edge, it captures the essence of a fixture shrouded in balance and tension.
Plant your flag on a 1-0 victory for Gil Vicente, yet remain conscious of the draw's potential, lurking like an unwelcome guest. The numbers illuminate a narrative familiar to these two sides: a dance between dominance and disruption, where Gil Vicente's quest for a decisive win is once again put to the test.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gil Vicente | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50 | 36 |
| xPoints | 54.5 | 39.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Gil Vicente | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 317 | 334 |
| Passes against per match | 320 | 391 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.1 | 19.7 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Gil Vicente | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 6.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Other | Gil Vicente | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Andrew da Silva Ventura (Gil Vicente) | Cezary Miszta (Rio Ave) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 45 | 77 |
| Save % | 80% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave according to our model?
The model gives Gil Vicente a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gil Vicente 51%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.