Maritimo vs Casa Pia: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga8 August 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal24°8 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Maritimo (48%)

Casa PiaLow block & direct

1 · Maritimo 48%X 29%23% Casa Pia · 2

48%

29%

23%

Maritimo

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #16xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Jesus RamirezFxG 0.57 · xT 0
Paulo Henrique Pereira da SilvaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
Miguel BaezaFxG 0.13 · xT 0.06

Casa Pia

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #17xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Dailon Rocha Livramento do RosarioFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Gaizka LarrazabalRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
Cassiano Dias MoreiraFxG 0.3 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Maritimo – Casa Pia

Predicted score matrix

Casa Pia →

Maritimo →

0–010.0%

0–17.8%

0–23.5%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.0%

1–112.5%

1–25.2%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.1%

2–23.9%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.3%

3–14.5%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.2-011%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,49–0,85

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.84EV+8%

Over 2,541%

@1.96

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Maritimo48% probability@2.45PinnacleEV+19%
Under 2.559% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+8%

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Casa Pia
Pinnacle	EV+ 19% 2.45	3.30	2.88

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Maritimo – Casa Pia

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Forty-eight percent. That's the probability model favoring Maritimo to win against Casa Pia in their upcoming clash. With Maritimo holding the upper hand in both points (34 vs 30) and expected points (47.1 vs 38.0), the stage is set for them to capitalise on their statistical superiority. The numbers point towards a likely Maritimo victory, particularly given their possession-based playstyle, which contrasts sharply with Casa Pia's proclivity for sitting back and playing direct.

Maritimo begins with the advantage, not just in model probability, but also in expected goals per match — 1.4 compared to Casa Pia's 0.98. These figures suggest a controlled dominance that their opponents may struggle to counter, given Casa Pia's lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 per game. If there's a script for this fixture, it's one where Maritimo edges it, potentially 1-0, the most likely scoreline at 14%. A 1-1 draw isn't far behind at 13%, but Casa Pia's chances of snatching a win seem slim.

Forty-one percent speaks for the probability of seeing more than two goals in the match, a figure that leans towards the under 2.5 goals market. This aligns with the analytical expectation of a controlled, low-scoring affair. The models also suggest a modest 45% chance of both teams finding the back of the net, adding weight to the narrative of a tight contest with few clear opportunities for Casa Pia.

With Pinnacle offering odds of 2.45 on a Maritimo win, there's undeniable value in backing the home side. The model's 48% win probability for Maritimo translates to a 19% edge, making this an enticing betting opportunity. Equally compelling is the under 2.5 goals market, priced at 1.84 with an 8% edge. In a matchup where Maritimo's control meets Casa Pia's defensively-minded approach, investing in fewer goals could be a shrewd move, with the numbers firmly supporting this angle.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Casa Pia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Casa Pia (31–57)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Points	34	30
xPoints	47.1	38
xG per match	1.4	0.98
xGA per match	1.6	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.27

Playing style	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.41	0.35
xT per match	0.68	0.65
xTA per match	1	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	28	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.31
Entries into the box per match	10	9
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.65
Passes per match	265	235
Passes against per match	330	376
Switches of play per match	23.1	18.6
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Maritimo	Casa Pia
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.08
Corners per match	4.3	4
Corners against per match	6.3	5.9
xG per corner	0.08	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.64

Other	Maritimo	Casa Pia
Throw-in control	0.7	0.67

The goalkeepers	Maritimo	Patrick Sequeira (Casa Pia)
Saves	–	82
Save %	–	65%
xG prevented	–	35%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Casa Pia according to our model?

The model gives Maritimo a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 48%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.