Maritimo vs Casa Pia: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga8 August 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal24°8 km/h

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Maritimo

1–0

Casa PiaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Maritimo (48%)

1 · Maritimo 48%X 29%23% Casa Pia · 2

48%

29%

23%

Analysis: Maritimo – Casa Pia

Marcus Johansson · 7 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

48% is the figure that jumps off the page. It's the model's probability for a Maritimo win, a compelling number when set against Casa Pia's odds of just 23%. The model leans towards Maritimo, not only statistically but also on the basis of expected goals — Maritimo at 1.49 to Casa Pia's 0.85. It paints a picture of a game where the home side should have the upper hand.

Maritimo, carrying the home advantage, will look to assert themselves and secure a much-needed win. Casa Pia, the underdogs in this matchup, will need to be resilient to avoid succumbing to Maritimo's expected dominance. One can't ignore Maritimo's potential for a 1-0 win, the most likely scoreline at 14%, showing the possibility of a narrow but controlled victory. The 2-0 option at 11% suggests a strong defensive display could also be on the cards for Maritimo.

Despite the chance of both teams scoring being 45%, the expected goals don't support a flurry of action, with a lean towards a low-scoring affair. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 41%, further reinforcing the notion that this match might not be a goalfest. The weather isn't in play here, so the numbers stand unchallenged by the elements.

Maritimo's odds of 2.5 with Pinnacle, combined with the model's 48% win probability, highlights an enticing 21% edge for punters eyeing a home win. For those inclined towards totals, there's also value in backing the under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.813, carrying a 6% edge. Given the model's undercurrent of a tight, defense-first contest, both these angles provide a sharp betting focus.

Maritimo

Casa Pia

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #17xP/match #15Points #16

Key players

Dailon Rocha Livramento do RosarioFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Gaizka LarrazabalRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
Cassiano Dias MoreiraFxG 0.30 · xT 0.01

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Maritimo 48% · Draw 29% · Casa Pia 23%

Match prediction: Maritimo – Casa Pia

Predicted score matrix

Casa Pia →

Maritimo →

0–010.0%

0–17.8%

0–23.5%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.0%

1–112.5%

1–25.2%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.1%

2–23.9%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.3%

3–14.5%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.2-011%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,49–0,85

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.64

Over 2,541%

@2.31

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Maritimo to win48%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Maritimo to win48%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Alexandre Xavier Pereira Garcia Guedes to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Alexandre Xavier Pereira Garcia Guedes to score31%
David Sousa Albino to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Maritimo48% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Casa Pia
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.26	3.17	3.52

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 1.84 to 1.64 (−11%).

1-8 %

45 %35 %

2.45 → 2.26

X-4 %

34 %24 %

3.30 → 3.17

2+22 %

35 %25 %

2.88 → 3.52

Over 2,5+18 %

50 %40 %

1.96 → 2.31

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Casa Pia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Casa Pia (31–57)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

The goalkeepers	Maritimo	Patrick Sequeira (Casa Pia)
Saves	–	82
Save %	–	65%
xG prevented	–	35%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Casa Pia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Casa Pia according to our model?

The model gives Maritimo a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 48%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.