Primeira LigaEstádio da Luz, Lissabon23°20 km/hUpdated
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BenficaPossession & high press
Academico ViseuPossession controlBenfica – Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga
Benfica- Vangelis PavlidisFxG 0.8 · xT 0.05
- Fredrik AursnesRWxG 0.1 · xT 0.15
- Enzo BarrenecheaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Academico Viseu- Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
- Gil DiasRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
- Gustavo SaRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Benfica – Academico Viseu
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.1-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,2Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Academico Viseu10% probability@18.88PinnacleEV+82%
- X · Draw14% probability@9.32PinnacleEV+30%
- Under 3.561% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+4%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Benfica | X | 2 · Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | EV+ 30% 9.32 | EV+ 82% 18.88 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Benfica – Academico Viseu
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Forty-nine unbeaten league matches: that's the intimidating fortress Benfica has constructed around their Primeira Liga performances. The numbers are more than just a testament to their consistency; they are a harbinger for Academico Viseu, whose 10% win probability underscores the mountain they face. Benfica's attacking prowess is evident with a 14-match scoring streak, propelled by an expected 2.47 goals against Viseu's 0.70. The narrative is as clear as the stats: Benfica dominate.
Benfica might control the game with their characteristic possession and high press, yet Viseu's own penchant for possession control could offer momentary resistance. But resistance doesn't translate to triumph. Benfica's 74% home win rate is a testament to their ability to convert dominance into points. Factor in their edge in both xPoints (65.2 to 52.7) and xG per match (2.2 to 1.4), and it paints a picture of a team primed to secure three points.
Academico Viseu's best hope might lie in the fringes of calculated risk. With Pinnacle offering odds of 18.88 for an away win, there's an 82% edge for the plucky gambler enticed by long shots. Equally intriguing is the 30% edge on a draw at 9.32, indicating that while improbable, Viseu holding Benfica to a stalemate isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.
Numbers crunch toward a 2-0 or perhaps a 3-0 Benfica victory, with models leaning heavily toward the former. As for goals, the over 2.5 at 61% suggests fireworks, but there's a shadow of caution around the under 3.5 market. Offered at odds of 1.704 with a modest 4% edge, it remains a shrewd play for those wary of Viseu's defensive discipline potentially blunting the scoreline.
In the cacophony of probabilities, it's Benfica who should run away with this. But for the bettor with an eye for value, the under 3.5 line might just be the wager to savour.
Statistics
Key facts
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 49 league matches.
- Benfica have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
- Benfica win 74% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Benfica | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 80 | 56 |
| xPoints | 65.2 | 52.7 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.89 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Benfica | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 417 | 342 |
| Passes against per match | 292 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.7 | 28.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Benfica | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 7.2 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.8 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| Other | Benfica | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Anatolii Trubin (Benfica) | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 76 | – |
| Save % | 77% | – |
| xG prevented | 63% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benfica vs Academico Viseu according to our model?
The model gives Benfica a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica 76%, draw 14%, Academico Viseu 10%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.