Sporting CP vs Alverca: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Estádio José Alvalade, Lissabon17°14 km/h

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Sporting CPPossession & high press

AlvercaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (81%)

1 · Sporting CP 81%X 12%7% Alverca · 2

81%

12%

Analysis: Sporting CP – Alverca

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Sporting Lisboa enters this match with a formidable 81% probability of victory, underscoring their dominance in the Primeira Liga. They're riding high on an unbeaten streak that stretches back seven matches, a testament to their consistent performance. Their attacking prowess is highlighted by scoring in 36 consecutive league matches, setting them up as clear favourites against Futebol Clube De Alverca.

Sporting Lisboa's expected goals tally of 2.80 dwarfs Alverca's 0.66, suggesting a lopsided affair. Although both teams favour possession, Lisboa's high press should disrupt Alverca's control, especially given Alverca's vulnerability in conceding, as evidenced by an xGA of 1.9 per match. The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit small with just two encounters, shows Lisboa with a perfect record. However, such a limited sample carries less weight than the current form and expected goals.

The weather could play a subtle role with 3.1 mm of rain expected, potentially suppressing goal-scoring opportunities. Yet, the model's numbers have already baked this into the 67% chance of over 2.5 goals. The bookmakers offer value in this scenario, with the over 2.5 goals market priced attractively at 1.85 by Bet365, marking it as a potential betting angle.

Sporting Lisboa should dominate proceedings, with a 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome at 12%. The draw is a distant 12%, and Alverca's chance at 7% feels generous given the disparities in form and quality. The lean towards over 2.5 goals reflects Sporting's attacking intent versus Alverca's defensive frailties. As the action unfolds, the over 2.5 goals offers a sharp betting proposition, especially with the rain potentially keeping scorelines tighter but still leaning towards a Sporting goal-fest.

Sporting CP

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #4xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Flávio Ferreira GonçalvesLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
Fotis IoannidisFxG 1.66 · xT -0.09
Sergi Altimira ClavellCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.00

Alverca

Form LDLLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #12xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Ian Luccas Baroni BoettoFxG 1.14 · xT 0.01
Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
Isaac JamesLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Sporting CP – Alverca

Predicted score matrix

Alverca →

Sporting CP →

0–03.3%

0–11.9%

0–20.7%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–08.6%

1–16.0%

1–21.9%

1–30.4%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.3%

2–18.2%

2–22.7%

2–30.6%

2–4+0.1%

3–011.5%

3–17.6%

3–22.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–015.8%

4+–110.5%

4+–23.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-011%
3.1-09%
4.2-18%
5.4-08%

Expected goals

2,80–0,66

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@2.62

Over 2,567%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win81%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win81%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Fotis Ioannidis to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Fotis Ioannidis to score43%
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sporting CP	X	2 · Alverca
Betsafe	1.23	5.25	12.50
Betsson	1.23	5.25	12.50
Nordicbet	1.23	5.25	12.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

79 %74 %

1.19 → 1.23

X-8 %

19 %14 %

5.70 → 5.25

2-14 %

9 %4 %

14.50 → 12.50

Over 2,5+1 %

67 %62 %

1.44 → 1.46

Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sporting CP 2Draw 0Alverca 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 36 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP

Alverca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sporting CP (5–4)

Alverca (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Alverca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Alverca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sporting CP	Alverca
Points	4	1
xPoints	3.5	3
xG per match	1.7	1.7
xGA per match	0.95	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.71
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.24

Playing style	Sporting CP	Alverca
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.54	0.4
xT per match	1.2	0.74
xTA per match	0.86	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.2
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.69
Passes per match	428	276
Passes against per match	310	343
Switches of play per match	27.5	21.1
Long balls per match	31	24

Set pieces	Sporting CP	Alverca
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	4.6	5.4
Corners against per match	3	3.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.71

Other	Sporting CP	Alverca
Throw-in control	0.66	0.73

The goalkeepers	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)
Saves	3	7
Save %	50%	64%
xG prevented	66%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sporting CP vs Alverca according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 81%, draw 12%, Alverca 7%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.