Hibernian vs Motherwell: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership2 August 2026Easter Road, Edinburgh16°2,6 mm14 km/hUpdated 28/07/2026

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HibernianPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Motherwell (37%)

MotherwellPossession control

1 · Hibernian 34%X 29%Motherwell · 2 37%

34%

29%

37%

Hibernian

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #7xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Martin Callie BoyleFxG 0.32 · xT 0.09
Nicky CaddenLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.26
Kieron Thomas BowieFxG 0.26 · xT 0.06

Motherwell

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #2xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Paul McGinnCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Stephen OdonnellRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Tawanda MaswanhiseRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Hibernian – Motherwell

Predicted score matrix

Motherwell →

Hibernian →

0–07.3%

0–19.4%

0–26.8%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.5%

1–112.7%

1–28.6%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.6%

2–17.8%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.4%

3–13.3%

3–22.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,40

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.01EV+1%

Over 2,550%

@1.83

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Motherwell37% probability@3.13PinnacleEV+16%
Under 2.550% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Hibernian	X	2 · Motherwell
Pinnacle	2.29	3.41	EV+ 16% 3.13

Odds updated 27 Jul, 15:52

Analysis: Hibernian – Motherwell

Anna Karlsson · 28 July 2026 · How the predictions work

Seven head-to-head matchups between Hibernian and Motherwell Football Club since 2023 paint a picture of parity, with Motherwell Football Club slightly edging the series with three wins to Hibernian's two. Yet, the model probabilities give Motherwell Football Club a narrow edge here, with a 37% chance to take the three points at Easter Road. Both teams share a penchant for possession control, but it's the visitors who bring the sharper knife to this gunfight, at least according to the bookies.

Hibernian, sitting on 57 points compared to Motherwell Football Club's 61, might not look the underdog on paper. However, when you dig into the expected points (xPoints), Hibernian actually holds a marginal advantage, pointing towards some underperformance in the actual standings. Their expected goals and goals against are neck and neck with their opponents, both teams registering 1.4 xG per match. This pattern suggests a tight contest, and one where the slightest edge could be the difference.

Motherwell Football Club can sense opportunity in the rain-soaked air, with a 9% likelihood each for a 0-1 or 1-2 victory. The weather, a balmy 16.3°C with 2.6 mm of rain expected, shouldn't weigh too heavily on two sides accustomed to Scotland's unpredictable climate. Motherwell's slightly stingier xGA of 1.3 compared to Hibernian's 1.4 might just give the visitors the defensive solidity needed to steal a win.

At 3.13 odds with Pinnacle, the away win offers a tantalizing 16% value edge. For the cautious punters, the tight affair leans towards the under 2.5 goals line, priced at 2.01 with Pinnacle, but only yields a minor 1% edge. However, with both teams to score sitting at 54% and the over 2.5 goals market at a balanced 50%, the game could easily swing either way. Yet, it's that away win for Motherwell Football Club, full of potential and value, that whispers most alluringly to the seasoned bettor's ear.

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Hibernian 2Draw 2Motherwell 3

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 2,1)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hibernian

Motherwell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Hibernian (58–44)

Motherwell (59–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Motherwell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Motherwell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hibernian	Motherwell
Points	57	61
xPoints	56.1	47.7
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.18

Playing style	Hibernian	Motherwell
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.41	0.61
xT per match	0.95	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	22	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.35
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	327	468
Passes against per match	385	315
Switches of play per match	23.1	32.7
Long balls per match	32	37

Set pieces	Hibernian	Motherwell
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.04
Corners per match	4.9	3.8
Corners against per match	5.7	4.2
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.48