Hibernian vs Motherwell: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership2 August 2026 17:30 CESTEaster Road, Edinburgh16°14 km/h

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HibernianPossession & high press

1–2

MotherwellCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Motherwell (37%)

1 · Hibernian 34%X 29%37% Motherwell · 2

34%

29%

37%

Analysis: Hibernian – Motherwell

Anna Karlsson · 31 July 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Thirty-seven percent. That's the model's vote of confidence in Motherwell Football Club as they square off against Hibernian, a match poised on a knife-edge given the marginal difference in probability. The model slightly leans towards Motherwell, but the numbers narrate a more nuanced tale. Hibernian, for instance, has managed to gather 57 points, trailing Motherwell's 61, yet when it comes to expected points, Hibernian edges ahead with 56.1 over Motherwell's 47.7. It's this clash of cold, hard facts that sets the stage for a fascinating encounter.

Motherwell Football Club enters this game with a slight advantage in head-to-head matchups since 2023, boasting three victories to Hibernian's two. The expected goals (xG) for both teams stand at a stalemate of 1.4 per match, but Motherwell's slight defensive edge in expected goals against (xGA) at 1.3 compared to Hibernian's 1.4 implicates a tight affair. The odds suggest a close match with the most likely scorelines being a 1-1 draw or a slender 0-1 or 1-2 victory for Motherwell — outcomes that must be contemplated by anyone placing their bets.

Hibernian might fancy their chances given their possession-control style mirroring Motherwell's own approach, yet this could also lead to a tactical stalemate. The game's likelihood of both teams scoring hovers at 54%, and with an over 2.5 goals probability at 50%, neither outcome stands out as definitively probable. The clash might well be decided by that elusive moment of quality or error.

Motherwell Football Club, priced at 3.1 with Pinnacle, presents a value bet. With the model rating them at a 37% chance to win, there’s a noteworthy 15% edge for the canny punter. For those who prefer a more measured play, the under 2.5 goals option at 1.99 offers no edge but reflects the 50% likelihood of a tighter scoreline. With precision and caution, this match offers fertile ground for those with a betting brain attuned to the subtle dance of probability and value.

Hibernian

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Owen EldingFxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Felix PasslackRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Adam MayorLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

Motherwell

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #12xP/match #8Points #3

Key players

Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Lukas FadingerCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.05
Tom SparrowRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Hibernian 34% · Draw 29% · Motherwell 37%

Match prediction: Hibernian – Motherwell

Predicted score matrix

Motherwell →

Hibernian →

0–07.3%

0–19.4%

0–26.8%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.5%

1–112.7%

1–28.6%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.6%

2–17.8%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.4%

3–13.3%

3–22.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,40

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.86

Over 2,550%

@1.99

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Emmanuel Longelo Mbule to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Martin Callie Boyle to score18%
Joseph Peter Newell to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Motherwell37% probability@3.46PinnacleEV+28%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hibernian	X	2 · Motherwell
Pinnacle	2.20	3.35	EV+ 28% 3.46

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 2.01 to 1.86 (−7%).

1-4 %

45 %40 %

2.29 → 2.20

X-2 %

31 %26 %

3.41 → 3.35

2+11 %

32 %27 %

3.13 → 3.46

Over 2,5+9 %

53 %48 %

1.83 → 1.99

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Hibernian 2Draw 2Motherwell 4

Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Motherwell Football Club dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hibernian

Motherwell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hibernian (3–3)

Motherwell (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Motherwell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Motherwell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hibernian	Motherwell
Points	0	3
xPoints	1.5	1.2
xG per match	2	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.45

Playing style	Hibernian	Motherwell
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.63	0.37
xT per match	1.4	0.42
xTA per match	0.42	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	37	10
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.1
Entries into the box per match	17	8
Entries into the box against	8	17
Pass completion %	0.79	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.79
Passes per match	402	453
Passes against per match	453	402
Switches of play per match	35.6	24.4
Long balls per match	26	19

Set pieces	Hibernian	Motherwell
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	9.2	2
Corners against per match	2	9.2
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.88

Other	Hibernian	Motherwell
Throw-in control	1	0.78

The goalkeepers	Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian)	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)
Saves	11	4
Save %	85%	80%
xG prevented	51%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hibernian

Fixtures, form & tips

Motherwell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hibernian vs Motherwell according to our model?

The model gives Motherwell a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hibernian 34%, draw 29%, Motherwell 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.