Scottish PremiershipMcDiarmid Park, Perth15°6,4 mm13 km/hUpdated

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    St. JohnstoneSt. JohnstoneLow block & direct
    vs
    The model's lean: 2 · Kilmarnock (40%)
    KilmarnockKilmarnockLow block & direct

    St. Johnstone – Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership

    1 · St. Johnstone 29%X 31%Kilmarnock · 2 40%
    St. JohnstoneSt. Johnstone
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #6xP/match #5Points #11
    Key players
    • Jonah AyungaFxG 0.35 · xT -0.03
    • Scott TanserLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
    • Roland IdowuFxG 0.1 · xT 0.11
    KilmarnockKilmarnock
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #9xP/match #8Points #10
    Key players
    • Tyreece Romayo John-JulesFxG 0.48 · xT 0.1
    • Findlay CurtisLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.15
    • Bruce AndersonFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02

    Match prediction: St. Johnstone – Kilmarnock

    Predicted score matrix

    Kilmarnock →
    St. Johnstone →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–110.1%
    0–27.1%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–113.0%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–05.6%
    2–17.6%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–13.0%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,20–1,36
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @2.03EV+7%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.80

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Kilmarnock40% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+31%
    • X · Draw31% probability@3.49PinnacleEV+9%
    • Under 2.553% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+7%
    Bookmaker1 · St. JohnstoneX2 · Kilmarnock
    Pinnacle2.19
    EV+ 9%
    3.49
    EV+ 31%
    3.27

    Odds updated 27 Jul, 15:52

    Analysis: St. Johnstone – Kilmarnock

    Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work

    Six games into the season and Kilmarnock find themselves riding a wave of four consecutive wins. This impressive streak has buoyed their confidence, and they enter the fixture against St. Johnstone as the side with the sharper edge. A closer look at the numbers tells us why Kilmarnock have the potential to make it five.

    St. Johnstone have shown flashes of resilience when facing Kilmarnock since 2023, with each side claiming two victories in their last four encounters. Yet, the current momentum and a slight edge in model probabilities (40% for Kilmarnock to win) suggest that the visitors might have the upper hand this time. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13%) indicates a close contest, but Kilmarnock's 10% chance of a 0-1 victory reflects their knack for edging tight matches recently.

    St. Johnstone might have an xPoints advantage, 54.2 compared to Kilmarnock's 50.0, but their higher expected goals against per match (1.9 for Kilmarnock) raises questions about their ability to keep the opposition at bay. Both sides employ a low defence, direct style, which could make for a scrappy affair under the expected 15.2°C and 6.4 mm of rain. It's not looking like a goal-fest with only a 47% probability for over 2.5 goals, leaning us towards an under.

    Kilmarnock fans and punters take note: Pinnacle's odds of 3.27 for an away win deliver a tasty 31% edge, given the model's 40% win probability. This represents a significant value play for those equipped with a betting brain. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.03 offers a 7% edge, a tempting proposition in the likely event of a low-scoring clash. Consider these angles as the smartest plays when everything lines up on the betting table.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    St. Johnstone 2Draw 0Kilmarnock 2
    Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kilmarnock come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    St. Johnstone
    Kilmarnock
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Kilmarnock (50–68)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kilmarnock
    Aaron Tshibola: 248 passningar, xT 0.22TshibolaTom Lowery: 213 passningar, xT 0.34LoweryDominic Thompson: 209 passningar, xT 0.76ThompsonRobbie Deas: 201 passningar, xT 0.43DeasGeorge Stanger: 187 passningar, xT 0.33StangerMichael Schjønning-Larsen: 164 passningar, xT 0.66Schjønning-LarsenMaksymilian Stryjek: 105 passningar, xT 0.08StryjekFindlay Curtis: 99 passningar, xT 0.82CurtisGreg Kiltie: 99 passningar, xT 0.35KiltieNicky Serghei Clescenco: 58 passningar, xT 0.19ClescencoBrad Lyons: 36 passningar, xT 0.02Lyons
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kilmarnock
    Aaron Tshibola: 248 passningar, xT 0.22TshibolaTom Lowery: 213 passningar, xT 0.34LoweryDominic Thompson: 209 passningar, xT 0.76ThompsonRobbie Deas: 201 passningar, xT 0.43DeasGeorge Stanger: 187 passningar, xT 0.33StangerMichael Schjønning-Larsen: 164 passningar, xT 0.66Schjønning-LarsenMaksymilian Stryjek: 105 passningar, xT 0.08StryjekFindlay Curtis: 99 passningar, xT 0.82CurtisGreg Kiltie: 99 passningar, xT 0.35KiltieNicky Serghei Clescenco: 58 passningar, xT 0.19ClescencoBrad Lyons: 36 passningar, xT 0.02Lyons

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSt. JohnstoneKilmarnock
    Points3440
    xPoints54.250
    xG per match1.31.3
    xGA per match1.31.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.26
    Playing styleSt. JohnstoneKilmarnock
    Build-up efficiency0.370.33
    Field tilt0.460.41
    xT per match0.980.83
    xTA per match11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2726
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.280.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.31
    Entries into the box per match1211
    Entries into the box against1314
    Pass completion %0.710.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.67
    Passes per match299278
    Passes against per match376409
    Switches of play per match24.421.7
    Long balls per match3733
    Set piecesSt. JohnstoneKilmarnock
    xG from free kicks0.10.07
    Corners per match5.54.3
    Corners against per match5.55.3
    xG per corner0.060.06
    xGA per corner against0.040.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.58
    OtherSt. JohnstoneKilmarnock
    Throw-in control0.750.73
    The goalkeepersSt. JohnstoneKelle Willem Roos (Kilmarnock)
    Saves–45
    Save %–64%
    xG prevented–44%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock according to our model?

    The model gives Kilmarnock a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 29%, draw 31%, Kilmarnock 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.