St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership2 August 2026 15:00 CESTMcDiarmid Park, Perth16°13 km/h

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St. JohnstonePossession & high press

4–3

KilmarnockBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Kilmarnock (40%)

1 · St. Johnstone 29%X 31%40% Kilmarnock · 2

29%

31%

40%

Analysis: St. Johnstone – Kilmarnock

Marcus Johansson · 31 July 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Kilmarnock have been riding high with four consecutive wins, an impressive feat that doesn't go unnoticed as they prepare to face St. Johnstone. The head-to-head record since 2023 stands evenly split, with each team having claimed two victories over the other. Yet, the underlying numbers suggest this is more than a coin toss. Both teams showcase a low defensive profile coupled with a direct playing style, which makes for a battle of similar approaches on the pitch.

St. Johnstone might possess the edge in terms of xPoints, boasting 54.2 compared to Kilmarnock's 50.0. However, the model gives Kilmarnock a 40% chance of winning, favouring them to edge this encounter. Most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 hint at a tight contest, yet Kilmarnock's recent form and the model's lean make a slender 1-0 victory for the visitors seem plausible.

Kilmarnock, despite conceding more expected goals per match with an xGA of 1.9, have managed to maintain their momentum, indicating resilience in defence when it matters most. St. Johnstone's superior xGA of 1.3 suggests they'll have to capitalize on any scoring chances, but Kilmarnock’s ability to convert opportunities within 8 seconds of winning the ball (tying at 0.19 with St. Johnstone) could prove crucial.

A 47% probability for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score indicates a narrow margin favoring a low-scoring affair. This is reinforced by the available value in betting markets, where under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.925 with Pinnacle offers a slight edge according to the model's 53% rating.

Yet, the sharpest angle here lies in backing Kilmarnock at 3.29 odds with Pinnacle. With the model rating their win probability at 40%, this presents a significant 32% edge, making it the standout value bet.

St. Johnstone

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Josh FowlerFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Kilmarnock

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #7xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieFxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
Tom LoweryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01

Final score

4 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Johnstone 29% · Draw 31% · Kilmarnock 40%

Match prediction: St. Johnstone – Kilmarnock

Predicted score matrix

Kilmarnock →

St. Johnstone →

0–08.1%

0–110.1%

0–27.1%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.9%

1–113.0%

1–28.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.6%

2–17.6%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.2%

3–13.0%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,20–1,36

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.95EV+3%

Over 2,547%

@1.90

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kilmarnock or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kilmarnock or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Joseph Brennen Hugill to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Joseph Brennen Hugill to score26%
Daniels Balodis to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kilmarnock40% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+31%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.47PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.553% probability@1.95PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Johnstone	X	2 · Kilmarnock
Pinnacle	2.23	EV+ 8% 3.47	EV+ 31% 3.26

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+2 %

45 %40 %

2.19 → 2.23

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.49 → 3.47

20 %

32 %27 %

3.27 → 3.26

Over 2,5+6 %

54 %49 %

1.80 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

St. Johnstone 3Draw 0Kilmarnock 2

Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Johnstone (4–4)

Kilmarnock (4–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Points	3	0
xPoints	2.7	1
xG per match	1.6	0.9
xGA per match	1.3	4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.01
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.83

Playing style	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.58	0.38
xT per match	0.92	0.79
xTA per match	0.8	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	28	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	9	16
Pass completion %	0.78	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.69
Passes per match	400	314
Passes against per match	354	531
Switches of play per match	30.6	21.2
Long balls per match	36	29

Set pieces	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4	4
Corners against per match	4	6.4
xG per corner	0.1	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.1
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.54

Other	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Throw-in control	0.76	0.75

The goalkeepers	Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)
Saves	6	13
Save %	67%	62%
xG prevented	29%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Johnstone

Fixtures, form & tips

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock according to our model?

The model gives Kilmarnock a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 29%, draw 31%, Kilmarnock 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.