La LigaSan Mamés, Bilbao24°11 km/h

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    Athletic ClubAthletic ClubPossession & high press
    vs
    Atlético de MadridAtlético de MadridPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Atlético de Madrid (57%)

    Athletic Club – Atlético de Madrid · La Liga

    1 · Athletic Club 20%X 23%57% Atlético de Madrid · 2

    Analysis: Athletic Club – Atlético de Madrid

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    A stark statistic stands out: Athletic Club have lost their last three matches, a worrying trend as they prepare to face Atlético de Madrid. With the model showing a 57% probability for an away win, the visitors hold a distinct edge. Athletic's recent form combined with a modest expected goals tally of 1.07 suggests they could struggle to break through a disciplined Atlético defense.

    The Basque side's possession and high press style matches Atlético's own approach, but recent head-to-head meetings since 2022 paint a clear picture of dominance by the visitors. Although only four matches, the small sample shows a 3-1 record in Atlético's favor, leaning heavily towards the visitors despite Athletic's home advantage. Atlético's stronger metrics—slightly higher xG and lower xGA per match—underscore their consistent edge.

    Odds hover at 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, suggesting goals are likely despite both sides' tactical similarities. With Atlético de Madrid favored to capitalize on Athletic's current slump, a 1-2 away win appears most probable.

    Athletic ClubAthletic Club
    Form LDLLL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #6xP/match #17Points #20
    Key players
    • Iñaki WilliamsFxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
    • Alex BerenguerCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
    • Peio Canales UrtasunCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
    Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
    Form WWLWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #5xP/match #15Points #6
    Key players
    • Kang-In LeeFxG 0.40 · xT 0.16
    • Alejandro Grimaldo GarcíaLWBxG 0.01 · xT -0.01
    • Ademola LookmanFxG 0.13 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Athletic Club – Atlético de Madrid

    Predicted score matrix

    Atlético de Madrid →
    Athletic Club →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–19.1%
    0–29.3%
    0–36.1%
    0–4+4.7%
    1
    1–04.8%
    1–110.4%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.5%
    1–4+5.0%
    2
    2–02.8%
    2–15.4%
    2–25.3%
    2–33.5%
    2–4+2.7%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–11.9%
    3–21.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.1-37%
    Expected goals
    1,07–1,97
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,541%
    @1.93
    Over 2,559%
    @1.93EV+12%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Atlético de Madrid to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.06

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Atlético de Madrid to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Julián Alvarez to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Julián Alvarez to score29%
    • João Miguel da Costa Pereira to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Atlético de Madrid57% probability@2.49PinnacleEV+41%reference odds
    • 2 · Atlético de Madrid57% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
    • 2 · Atlético de Madrid57% probability@2.48BetssonEV+41%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Athletic ClubX2 · Atlético de Madrid
    Betsafe2.853.30
    EV+ 41%
    2.48
    Betsson2.853.30
    EV+ 41%
    2.48
    Nordicbet2.853.30
    EV+ 41%
    2.48
    Pinnacle2.883.47
    EV+ 41%
    2.49

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    36 %31 %

    2.77 → 2.88

    X-3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.57 → 3.47

    2+3 %
    41 %36 %

    2.42 → 2.49

    Over 2,5+3 %
    53 %48 %

    1.87 → 1.93

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Athletic Club 1Draw 0Atlético de Madrid 3
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Athletic Club have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Athletic Club
    Atlético de Madrid
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Athletic Club (1–5)
    Atlético de Madrid (4–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Athletic Club
    Peio Canales Urtasun: 83 passningar, xT 0.15UrtasunAymeric Laporte: 69 passningar, xT 0.31LaporteUnai Simon: 67 passningar, xT 0.13SimonYeray Álvarez López: 66 passningar, xT 0.08LópezAitor Paredes: 60 passningar, xT 0.04ParedesAlex Berenguer: 53 passningar, xT 0.24BerenguerOihan Sancet: 41 passningar, xT 0.13SancetBeñat Gerenabarrena Zendoia: 40 passningar, xT 0.15ZendoiaJesús Areso: 24 passningar, xT 0.21AresoJohaneko Louis-Jean: 21 passningar, xT 0.05Louis-JeanNico Williams: 21 passningar, xT 0.2Williams
    Atlético de Madrid
    Dávid Hancko: 146 passningar, xT 0.42HanckoKoke: 97 passningar, xT 0.25KokeMorten Blom Due Hjulmand: 71 passningar, xT 0.01HjulmandPablo Barrios: 71 passningar, xT 0.32BarriosRobin Le Normand: 59 passningar, xT 0.06NormandJan Oblak: 56 passningar, xT -0.01OblakMarcos Llorente: 53 passningar, xT 0.08LlorenteDaniel Martínez Moreno: 53 passningar, xT 0.02MorenoAlejandro Grimaldo García: 46 passningar, xT -0.04GarcíaGiuliano Simeone: 43 passningar, xT 0.05SimeoneKang-In Lee: 38 passningar, xT 0.14Lee
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Athletic Club
    Peio Canales Urtasun: 83 passningar, xT 0.15UrtasunAymeric Laporte: 69 passningar, xT 0.31LaporteUnai Simon: 67 passningar, xT 0.13SimonYeray Álvarez López: 66 passningar, xT 0.08LópezAitor Paredes: 60 passningar, xT 0.04ParedesAlex Berenguer: 53 passningar, xT 0.24BerenguerOihan Sancet: 41 passningar, xT 0.13SancetBeñat Gerenabarrena Zendoia: 40 passningar, xT 0.15ZendoiaJesús Areso: 24 passningar, xT 0.21AresoJohaneko Louis-Jean: 21 passningar, xT 0.05Louis-JeanNico Williams: 21 passningar, xT 0.2Williams
    Atlético de Madrid
    Dávid Hancko: 146 passningar, xT 0.42HanckoKoke: 97 passningar, xT 0.25KokeMorten Blom Due Hjulmand: 71 passningar, xT 0.01HjulmandPablo Barrios: 71 passningar, xT 0.32BarriosRobin Le Normand: 59 passningar, xT 0.06NormandJan Oblak: 56 passningar, xT -0.01OblakMarcos Llorente: 53 passningar, xT 0.08LlorenteDaniel Martínez Moreno: 53 passningar, xT 0.02MorenoAlejandro Grimaldo García: 46 passningar, xT -0.04GarcíaGiuliano Simeone: 43 passningar, xT 0.05SimeoneKang-In Lee: 38 passningar, xT 0.14Lee

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAthletic ClubAtlético de Madrid
    Points04
    xPoints1.61.9
    xG per match0.780.84
    xGA per match1.91.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.040.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.70.14
    Playing styleAthletic ClubAtlético de Madrid
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.520.58
    xT per match0.91.1
    xTA per match1.30.63
    Won balls, offensive half2334
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.33
    Entries into the box per match1116
    Entries into the box against127
    Pass completion %0.720.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.76
    Passes per match320427
    Passes against per match392378
    Switches of play per match18.137.3
    Long balls per match2836
    Set piecesAthletic ClubAtlético de Madrid
    xG from free kicks0.020.02
    Corners per match7.55.1
    Corners against per match7.51.9
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.64
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.5
    OtherAthletic ClubAtlético de Madrid
    Throw-in control0.660.78
    The goalkeepersUnai Simon (Athletic Club)Jan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid)
    Saves105
    Save %67%71%
    xG prevented47%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Athletic Club vs Atlético de Madrid according to our model?

    The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Athletic Club 20%, draw 23%, Atlético de Madrid 57%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.