Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Away win 44% (1 Nov 2026)

La Liga1 November 2026San Mamés, Bilbao15°1,8 mm9 km/h

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Athletic ClubPossession & high press

Real SociedadBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Real Sociedad (44%)

1 · Athletic Club 28%X 29%44% Real Sociedad · 2

28%

29%

44%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Athletic Club win 28%, draw 29%, Real Sociedad win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Athletic Club 1.19, Real Sociedad 1.75. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Athletic Club or draw 56%, Real Sociedad or draw 72%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Athletic Club – Real Sociedad

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The model assigns Real Sociedad a 44% chance of victory, the highest probability among possible outcomes, with a lean towards the visitors. Although Athletic Club have a slight edge in xG per match, the visitors' xGA suggests they may allow more opportunities. Real Sociedad's current form with three consecutive wins further reinforces their favored status in this duel.

Despite a balanced head-to-head record (1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss for the hosts in a modest four-match sample), Sociedad's 16 points this season compared to Athletic’s 9 highlight their superior form. The Basque hosts employ a possession-based high press, which may struggle against the visitors' physicality and balance. Expected goals figures of 1.19 for Athletic and 1.75 for Real Sociedad indicate the latter's potential to capitalize on chances, aligning with the model’s lean.

A match likely to see goals, with the over 2.5 goals probability at 56%, suggests action at both ends. However, the sharpest angle lies in betting value: LeoVegas offers Real Sociedad at 3.45 odds. Given the model's 44% probability for an away win, this presents a substantial edge. Expect a tight affair potentially ending 1-2 in the visitors' favor.

Athletic Club

Form WDDDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #5xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Aitor ParedesCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Yuri BerchicheLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Yeray Álvarez LópezCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Real Sociedad

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #18xT #15xP/match #12Points #5

Key players

Jon MartinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Sergio GomezLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
Carlos SolerCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Athletic Club – Real Sociedad

Predicted score matrix

Real Sociedad →

Athletic Club →

0–05.6%

0–18.9%

0–28.1%

0–34.7%

0–4+3.1%

1–06.0%

1–111.3%

1–29.6%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.6%

2–03.7%

2–16.6%

2–25.7%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.2%

3–01.5%

3–12.6%

3–22.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,19–1,75

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.96

Over 2,556%

@1.86EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)74%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)74%
Over 2.5 goals56%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Real Sociedad44% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+51%reference odds
2 · Real Sociedad44% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+51%reference odds
2 · Real Sociedad44% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+49%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Athletic Club	X	2 · Real Sociedad
Betsafe	2.08	3.50	EV+ 51% 3.45
LeoVegas	2.08	3.50	EV+ 49% 3.40
Nordicbet	2.08	3.50	EV+ 51% 3.45

Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:37

Odds movement

10 %

48 %43 %

2.08 → 2.08

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.50

2-1 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.40

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.77 → 1.77

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Athletic Club 1Draw 2Real Sociedad 1

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Real Sociedad come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Athletic Club

Real Sociedad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Athletic Club (8–9)

Real Sociedad (17–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Athletic Club

Real Sociedad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Athletic Club

Real Sociedad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad
Points	9	16
xPoints	11.6	11.8
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	1.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.4

Playing style	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.57	0.41
xT per match	1.1	0.71
xTA per match	0.78	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	443	405
Passes against per match	363	427
Switches of play per match	32.2	26.6
Long balls per match	36	31

Set pieces	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.06
Corners per match	6.6	7.1
Corners against per match	4.3	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.5

Other	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad
Throw-in control	0.8	0.66

The goalkeepers	Unai Simon (Athletic Club)	Alex Remiro (Real Sociedad)
Saves	25	34
Save %	74%	71%
xG prevented	42%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Athletic Club

Fixtures, form & tips

Real Sociedad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad according to our model?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Athletic Club 28%, draw 29%, Real Sociedad 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Athletic Club and 1.75 for Real Sociedad, 2.94 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Athletic Club or draw (1X) 56%, Real Sociedad or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.