Getafe vs Sevilla FC Prediction: Away win 35% (1 Nov 2026)

La Liga1 November 2026 14:00 CETColiseum, Getafe14°15 km/h

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GetafeLow block & direct

Sevilla FCPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sevilla FC (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 1,5 @ 1.58 (+1 %)

1 · Getafe 33%X 32%35% Sevilla FC · 2

33%

32%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Getafe vs Sevilla FC (La Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Getafe win 33%, draw 32%, Sevilla FC win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Getafe 1.14, Sevilla FC 1.02. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: Getafe or draw 65%, Sevilla FC or draw 67%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Getafe – Sevilla FC

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sevilla's nine-match scoring streak is the standout number as they travel to Getafe. Despite the visitors' edge in recent form and possession-oriented play, the model narrowly favors them with a 35% win probability. This match could tilt in either direction, with a 1-1 draw emerging as the most likely scoreline at 14%. Getafe's defensive, direct style might find itself under pressure from Sevilla's control and ability to create quick chances, as evidenced by their superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.28 to 0.12).

In terms of expected goals for this match, the hosts actually lead slightly with 1.14 compared to Sevilla's 1.02. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 37%, suggesting a tightly contested affair might be on the cards. Getafe's lower season xG per match (0.73 vs Sevilla's 1.2) further supports Sevilla's overall edge in quality. With Sevilla having scored in each of their last 9 league matches, their offensive consistency might just edge them past the hosts in what could potentially be a narrow win or a stalemate.

The most enticing betting angle comes from the model's lean toward Sevilla. With Bet365 offering odds of 2.80 for an away win, the value seems to lie with the visitors continuing their scoring streak and edging out a slim victory.

Getafe

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #16xP/match #16Points #15

Key players

Ramon TerratsCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.14
Martín SatrianoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
Francho Serrano GraciaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

Sevilla FC

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #10xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Kike SalasCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Gabriel SuazoLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Youssouf FofanaCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Getafe – Sevilla FC

Predicted score matrix

Sevilla FC →

Getafe →

0–011.9%

0–111.3%

0–26.0%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.8%

1–113.8%

1–26.8%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–07.5%

2–17.7%

2–23.9%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.9%

3–12.9%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,14–1,02

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

@1.47

Over 2,537%

@2.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)62%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)62%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Gerard Fernández Castellano to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Enes Ünal to score27%
Francho Serrano Gracia to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 1.564% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Over 1.564% probability@1.58NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Getafe	X	2 · Sevilla FC
Betsafe	2.95	2.98	2.62
LeoVegas	2.88	3.05	2.60
Nordicbet	2.95	2.98	2.62

Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:37

Odds movement

10 %

35 %30 %

2.88 → 2.88

X0 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 3.05

20 %

39 %34 %

2.60 → 2.60

Over 2,50 %

38 %33 %

2.60 → 2.60

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Getafe 1Draw 1Sevilla FC 2

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Sevilla FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Getafe

Sevilla FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Getafe (5–11)

Sevilla FC (14–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Getafe

Sevilla FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Getafe

Sevilla FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Getafe	Sevilla FC
Points	9	14
xPoints	10.5	12.3
xG per match	0.73	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.37

Playing style	Getafe	Sevilla FC
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.34	0.47
xT per match	0.69	0.87
xTA per match	0.95	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	23	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.21
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.67	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.68
Passes per match	220	264
Passes against per match	465	420
Switches of play per match	18	21.5
Long balls per match	32	30

Set pieces	Getafe	Sevilla FC
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	4.2	2.9
Corners against per match	5.9	3.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.24	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.57

Other	Getafe	Sevilla FC
Throw-in control	0.66	0.73

The goalkeepers	David Soria (Getafe)	Odysseas Vlachodimos (Sevilla FC)
Saves	32	28
Save %	74%	64%
xG prevented	54%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Getafe

Fixtures, form & tips

Sevilla FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Getafe vs Sevilla FC according to our model?

The model gives Sevilla FC a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Getafe 33%, draw 32%, Sevilla FC 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Sevilla FC?

The model expects 1.14 goals (xG) for Getafe and 1.02 for Sevilla FC, 2.16 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Getafe or draw (1X) 65%, Sevilla FC or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 68%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.