La LigaBalaídos, Vigo20°7 km/h

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    Celta VigoCelta VigoBalanced & physical
    5–0
    Racing de SantanderRacing de SantanderCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Celta Vigo (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Racing de Santander @ 4.56 (+35 %)

    Celta Vigo vs Racing de Santander · La Liga

    1 · Celta Vigo 46%X 25%30% Racing de Santander · 2

    Analysis: Celta Vigo – Racing de Santander

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Racing de Santander's knack for counterattacks will be crucial as they face a Celta Vigo side more inclined toward a balanced and physical approach. Despite Celta's home advantage and a model that slightly leans towards them with a 46% win probability, the numbers paint a picture of an even contest. Racing's recent form and superior xPoints of 7.7 compared to Celta's 4.8 suggest they can't be discounted.

    Celta Vigo's expected goals of 1.50 per match are not vastly superior to Racing's 1.33, indicating a potentially tight affair. Racing has demonstrated a clinical edge, generating 1.4 xG per match, doubling Celta's output. However, they also concede more, with an xGA of 2.1 compared to Celta's tighter defense at 1.4. This balance of attacking threat and defensive vulnerability could lead to goals from both sides, aligning with the 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams finding the net.

    With both teams showing inconsistencies, the market might be underestimating Racing. Their seven points in the league outshine Celta's four, suggesting they're more than capable of pulling off a result here. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 supports the idea of a closely contested match, though a 2-1 win for either side wouldn't be a shock given the attacking styles and vulnerabilities.

    The sharpest angle, however, lies in the betting market dynamics. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.15 for a Racing win, representing a value opportunity given the model's 30% probability assessment for an away victory. This 23% edge on the bookmakers' pricing makes backing Racing at those odds an attractive prospect for those looking for a well-calculated risk.

    Celta VigoCelta Vigo
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #15xP/match #20Points #17
    Key players
    • Hugo González SotosFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
    • Alvaro NunezRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Miguel RomanCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
    Racing de SantanderRacing de Santander
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #20xT #10xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Andres MartinCAMxG 0.80 · xT 0.19
    • Inigo VicenteLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.38
    • Pablo GarciaFxG 0.17 · xT 0.00
    Final score
    5 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% · Draw 25% · Racing de Santander 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Racing SantanderBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,49fair 10,65+17 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Celta VigoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,58fair 8,47-34 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Celta Vigo – Racing de Santander

    Predicted score matrix

    Racing de Santander →
    Celta Vigo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–17.5%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.1%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,50–1,33
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.15
    Over 2,554%
    @1.76

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Celta Vigo to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Celta Vigo to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Sergio Carreira Vilariño to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Sergio Carreira Vilariño to score26%
    • Iván Martín Núñez to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.56PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.40BetssonEV+30%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Celta VigoX2 · Racing de Santander
    Bet3651.753.60
    EV+ 28%
    4.33
    Betsafe1.803.60
    EV+ 30%
    4.40
    Betsson1.803.60
    EV+ 30%
    4.40
    Nordicbet1.803.60
    EV+ 30%
    4.40
    Pinnacle1.813.83
    EV+ 35%
    4.56

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    55 %50 %

    1.78 → 1.81

    X-5 %
    27 %22 %

    4.03 → 3.83

    2+13 %
    25 %20 %

    4.03 → 4.56

    Over 2,5+4 %
    59 %54 %

    1.69 → 1.76

    Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Celta Vigo
    Racing de Santander
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Celta Vigo (3–6)
    Racing de Santander (11–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Yoel Lago: 274 passningar, xT 0.26LagoMarcos Alonso: 250 passningar, xT 0.44AlonsoMiguel Roman: 238 passningar, xT 0.29RomanIlaix Moriba: 225 passningar, xT 0.12MoribaCarl Starfelt: 184 passningar, xT 0.19StarfeltSergio Carreira: 164 passningar, xT 0.47CarreiraIonut Radu: 139 passningar, xT 0.01RaduAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezJavi Rueda: 117 passningar, xT 0.14RuedaJavi Rodriguez: 96 passningar, xT 0.08RodriguezIago Aspas: 88 passningar, xT 0.12Aspas
    Racing de Santander
    Inigo Vicente: 177 passningar, xT 1.53VicenteIvan Martin: 154 passningar, xT 0.1MartinSergio Canales Madrazo: 147 passningar, xT 0.1MadrazoAlvaro Mantilla: 130 passningar, xT 0.22MantillaPablo Ramon: 125 passningar, xT 0.11RamonJulen Agirrezabala: 116 passningar, xT 0.02AgirrezabalaJorge Salinas: 113 passningar, xT 0.2SalinasGustavo Puerta: 98 passningar, xT 0.3PuertaMatteo Prati: 95 passningar, xT -0.02PratiJosé Manuel Hernando Riol: 78 passningar, xT 0.11RiolFacundo Gonzalez: 70 passningar, xT 0.14Gonzalez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Yoel Lago: 274 passningar, xT 0.26LagoMarcos Alonso: 250 passningar, xT 0.44AlonsoMiguel Roman: 238 passningar, xT 0.29RomanIlaix Moriba: 225 passningar, xT 0.12MoribaCarl Starfelt: 184 passningar, xT 0.19StarfeltSergio Carreira: 164 passningar, xT 0.47CarreiraIonut Radu: 139 passningar, xT 0.01RaduAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezJavi Rueda: 117 passningar, xT 0.14RuedaJavi Rodriguez: 96 passningar, xT 0.08RodriguezIago Aspas: 88 passningar, xT 0.12Aspas
    Racing de Santander
    Inigo Vicente: 177 passningar, xT 1.53VicenteIvan Martin: 154 passningar, xT 0.1MartinSergio Canales Madrazo: 147 passningar, xT 0.1MadrazoAlvaro Mantilla: 130 passningar, xT 0.22MantillaPablo Ramon: 125 passningar, xT 0.11RamonJulen Agirrezabala: 116 passningar, xT 0.02AgirrezabalaJorge Salinas: 113 passningar, xT 0.2SalinasGustavo Puerta: 98 passningar, xT 0.3PuertaMatteo Prati: 95 passningar, xT -0.02PratiJosé Manuel Hernando Riol: 78 passningar, xT 0.11RiolFacundo Gonzalez: 70 passningar, xT 0.14Gonzalez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Points47
    xPoints4.87.7
    xG per match0.71.4
    xGA per match1.42.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.39
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.41
    Playing styleCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.620.37
    xT per match0.650.87
    xTA per match0.641.4
    Won balls, offensive half2419
    Pressing intensity0.210.24
    Pressing efficiency0.230.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.21
    Entries into the box per match913
    Entries into the box against818
    Pass completion %0.830.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.69
    Passes per match495320
    Passes against per match413395
    Switches of play per match35.49.4
    Long balls per match3519
    Set piecesCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match3.44.5
    Corners against per match5.110.1
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.27
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.44
    OtherCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Throw-in control0.790.67
    The goalkeepersIonut Radu (Celta Vigo)Julen Agirrezabala (Racing de Santander)
    Saves1628
    Save %73%65%
    xG prevented51%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Celta Vigo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Racing de Santander
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Celta Vigo vs Racing de Santander according to our model?

    The model gives Celta Vigo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Vigo 46%, draw 25%, Racing de Santander 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.