Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

La Liga16 September 2026Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid23°21 km/h

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Atlético de MadridPossession & high press

OsasunaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Atlético de Madrid (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · Osasuna @ 8.80 (+32 %)

1 · Atlético de Madrid 64%X 21%15% Osasuna · 2

64%

21%

15%

Analysis: Atlético de Madrid – Osasuna

Oscar Nilsson · 14 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Atletico de Madrid's high-pressure, possession-focused style will be tested against Osasuna's balanced and physical approach. The hosts are favored, boasting a 64% chance of victory according to the model, and their historical 75% home win rate further underscores their dominance in familiar surroundings. However, there are nuances worth exploring in this matchup.

Osasuna has shown resilience, and their xPoints of 9.1 compared to Atletico's 6.2 suggest that the visitors may be more formidable than their point tally reveals. Moreover, Osasuna's superior xG and xGA figures, with 1.6 and 0.91 respectively, highlight a propensity to create and prevent chances more effectively than their opponents, who stand at 1.1 xG and 1.2 xGA per match.

The head-to-head record since 2022 favors Atletico, with three wins in their last four encounters, but the small sample size means this history should weigh less heavily than current form and expected goals metrics. Despite Atletico's strong home record, the expected goals model still favors Atletico de Madrid, projecting 2.06 goals to Osasuna's 0.90.

From a betting standpoint, the 57% probability for over 2.5 goals aligns with the attacking capabilities of both teams, though the 52% chance of both teams scoring adds a layer of uncertainty. While Atletico is the clear favorite, there's notable value on an Osasuna upset, especially with odds of 8.3 offered by both Betsson and Nordicbet, and 8.2 at Betsafe, which presents a 23-24% edge over the model's valuation.

Expect Atletico to control the tempo, possibly edging a narrow 2-1 victory. Yet, with the odds stacked the way they are, betting on an Osasuna win could prove a savvy move for those willing to take a risk on underdog value.

Atlético de Madrid

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #6xP/match #11Points #4

Key players

Alejandro Grimaldo GarcíaLWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.02
Pablo BarriosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Giuliano SimeoneRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.02

Osasuna

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #11xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Ante BudimirFxG 1.00 · xT -0.01
Alejandro CatenaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Kike BarjaLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Atlético de Madrid – Osasuna

Predicted score matrix

Osasuna →

Atlético de Madrid →

0–05.4%

0–14.4%

0–22.1%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.4%

1–19.9%

1–24.3%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.0%

2–19.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.5%

3–16.8%

3–23.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–06.3%

4+–15.6%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,06–0,90

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.15

Over 2,557%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Atlético de Madrid to win64%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Atlético de Madrid to win64%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez to score36%
Alejandro Catena Marugán to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Osasuna15% probability@8.80BetssonEV+32%reference odds
2 · Osasuna15% probability@8.80NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
2 · Osasuna15% probability@8.70BetsafeEV+30%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atlético de Madrid	X	2 · Osasuna
Betsafe	1.38	4.55	EV+ 30% 8.70
Betsson	1.38	4.55	EV+ 32% 8.80
Nordicbet	1.38	4.55	EV+ 32% 8.80
Pinnacle	1.38	EV+ 5% 4.99	EV+ 26% 8.41

Odds updated 15 Sept, 12:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Atlético de Madrid win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 1.45 to 1.38 (−5%).

1-5 %

71 %61 %

1.45 → 1.38

X+11 %

26 %16 %

4.50 → 4.99

2+26 %

18 %8 %

6.68 → 8.41

Over 2,5+2 %

60 %50 %

1.70 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atlético de Madrid 3Draw 0Osasuna 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Atletico de Madrid win 75% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlético de Madrid

Osasuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlético de Madrid (10–6)

Osasuna (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlético de Madrid

Osasuna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlético de Madrid

Osasuna

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlético de Madrid	Osasuna
Points	10	7
xPoints	6.2	9.1
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	0.91
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.04

Playing style	Atlético de Madrid	Osasuna
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.56	0.52
xT per match	0.98	0.75
xTA per match	0.79	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	26	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	9
Entries into the box against	10	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.72
Passes per match	455	368
Passes against per match	369	372
Switches of play per match	34.8	35.5
Long balls per match	39	42

Set pieces	Atlético de Madrid	Osasuna
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.06
Corners per match	4.7	3.5
Corners against per match	3.9	4.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.75

Other	Atlético de Madrid	Osasuna
Throw-in control	0.79	0.8

The goalkeepers	Jan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid)	Sergio Herrera (Osasuna)
Saves	13	6
Save %	68%	43%
xG prevented	22%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atlético de Madrid

Fixtures, form & tips

Osasuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlético de Madrid vs Osasuna according to our model?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético de Madrid 64%, draw 21%, Osasuna 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.